Everybody loves a winner, especially in politics. When the winner basks in the sunshine of his success, his admirers will look up to him with doleful adoring eyes. When the winner begin to falter in his steps or seems to have lost his grip on winning, that love may turn to contempt or hate. We human beings are such slavish creatures of our emotions indeed.

Politicians know the truth about their followers. In their darkest hours of defeat and humiliation, even their friends and relatives pretend not to know them during a chance meeting on the street. On the other hand, when they are on a winning streak, they have an endless supply of new found friends offering invitations for dinner and meeting - or a free trip to New Zealand!

They say power is an aphrodisiac. If that is true, then political power is the strongest aphrodisiac. Is that why some top politicians cannot resist the temptation of using that aphrodisiac? Why, even Bill Clinton fell prey to this temptation of power.

In any case, politicians are human beings too, and they are equally susceptible to the law of loving and hating their top leaders according to their success or failure. When the fortune of a political party or a political coalition has taken a giant dent, there will be much finger pointing at the top man from within his own circle of supporters. This is what happened to Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. He was shown the way to the exit door by the people who used to be so supportive of him in his hours of victory.

karpal anwar dna 190708 Now that Pakatan Rakyat has lost state ruling power to the Barisan Nasional, the heat is on Anwar Ibrahim. Quite surprisingly, the first gargantuan finger pointed at him is from Karpal Singh, the DAP chairperson. The Internet has been buzzing to no end over this latest political drama for the past few days. The questionable ethics of party hopping continues to be the hottest topic of debate in cyberspace.

Anwar Ibrahim is a political veteran of extraordinary proportion. He knows the rule of the game. The political top dog has to take responsibility for the failing of his party in Perak. Fortunately for him, the DAP spiritual leader Lim Kit Siang and his son Lim Guan Eng are on his side.

Weaknesses exposed

Frankly, I think the loss of Perak state government to the back-door tactic of BN is a blessing in disguise for the Pakatan Rakyat in the long run.

It has exposed the internal weakness of the opposition alliance which would otherwise lie hidden, perhaps to surface prior to the next general election. Buoyed by their victories in two recent by-elections, there is always the possibility of Pakatan leaders and supporters becoming all too complacent. The debacle in Perak is essentially a wake up call, a reality check for all Pakatan members and their supporters, a reminder that radical change in Malaysia is indeed full of peril, not least of which comes from within

Pakatan setback in Perak is also an opportunity for them to renew their resolve along their original course of reformasi. The opposition coalition seems to work best when under duress. The Sarawak state election is too distant to keep up their national momentum. The Perak upheaval gives them an immediate platform to paint the town red with their narrative on party hopping, corruption, dirty politicking, and need for radical change.

constitutional monarchy rule of law and good governance 050209 The Perak affair has also stirred up the issue of the state of our system of constitutional monarchy. Like it or not, the sultans of the Malay states is an important core element of the Malay self-identity in Peninsular Malaysia. The public criticism and the blog onslaught on the Perak Sultan's decision during the crisis do violence to the Malay psyche. The sense of ethnic self-identity of the Malays has been evolving through the last half century and is getting more pluralistic and diversified. This latest controversy will simply accelerate that trend.

Events in the past weeks have also reaffirmed the critical importance of the alternative media.

I have stopped reading the mainstream newspapers and watching the various TV stations. The demonisation of the opposition there is nauseating, exactly as they were before the March 8 general election last year.

In sharp contrast, the conversation on the Internet is getting to be much more interesting. You still get the usual nihilistic ranting and raving behind the veil of anonymity, but on the whole, the diverse view points from concerned private citizens are much more mature the before. In the better blog spots, at the end of a serious fierce debate, you get the feeling you could form a much more rounded conclusion based on the input. There is a vibrant refreshing and enlightening alternative public space on the Internet in the making in Malaysia.

A referendum on Najib

Just when the Pakatan leaders are besieged by the problems of more defection of their elected representatives elsewhere, the door of opportunity for redemption is swung open again.

The sudden and unfortunate death of the PAS Bukit Gantang MP Roslan Shaharum in Perak and the resignation of PKR state assemblyman V Arumugam in the Bukit Selambau constituency of Kedah have paved the way for two by-elections within the next 60 days.

This time around, we can expect the PR massive army descending onto the two constituencies with a vengeance, in an attempt to seek vindication for what they portray to be the great injustice inflicted upon democracy in Perak. The continuing political crisis in the state with two menteris besar and all will certainly be the focus of the by-elections.

kuala terengganu by election 110109 najib 2 In that context, the two polls will indeed be a referendum on Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. Without the recent coup detat in Perak, the Pakatan offensive in the two pending by-elections would not have such very lethal ammunition!

My fellow Malaysiakini columnist Ong Kian Ming has lent his expertise to our understanding of the possible outcome in the two by-elections ahead. He thinks it will be a relatively easy win for Pakatan Rakyat in both contests.

Having lost so many elections to BN candidates myself, I tend to be much more pessimistic and cautious. Before nomination day in any electoral contest, I would, as a rule of thumb, give a 3000 to 5000 vote advantage to the BN, simply because the playing field is so tilted against the opposition. Besides, the next 60 days is a long time, and many unforeseen things could happen to influence the sentiment of the voters.

All these Machiavellian manoeuvres are very confusing to concerned Malaysians watching from the sideline. Many must feel completely disheartened, resentful, angry, frustrated, and powerless. The country is facing such a terrible economic prospect, and our political leaders seem more interested in their self-serving power play than in the welfare of the rakyat.

Unfortunately for them and for Malaysia, these two powerful political blocs at loggerhead with each other are not likely to come together and form a unity government. This is one of those irreconcilable contradictions within what Hegel had labelled as the "historical dialectic" of our Malaysian history. It will be resolved finally by a historical mediation through the people's unanimous choice during a general election somewhere down the line. Nobody can predict how long that line will be.

Good or bad, the current political upheaval in the country, the cut and thrust of political offensives, and plots and counterplots will continue for a while. The politicians involved and their political parties are beside themselves; they cannot stop the process of change even if they want to. The unseen hands of effective history have been set in motion.

This is the time for well-meaning and engaged citizens to keep their cool heads, to summon all their independent critical faculty of thought, so as to see through the veil of political sandiwara and grasp the picture of the wood with the individual trees in them.

The two-elections ahead are eagerly awaited, and they will be closely watched. But they are but two more battles in a long and massive national war for political supremacy. Whatever the outcome of these by-elections, one should not be overjoyed or over-depressed. There would be many more battles ahead. Our desire for change will have no chance of immediate gratification!

What we ought to do in the eye of the national storm is to reiterate to ourselves our very human and noble aspiration to freedom, from corruption, abuse of power, and bad governance, towards democracy, transparency, accountability, and justice for all.

Then we make our personal choice and a sustained commitment to those ideals every time we vote, again and again. That is our only course forward in this messy state of affair.

SIM KWANG YANG was MP for Bandar Kuching from 1982 to 1995. He can be reached at kenyalang578@hotmail.com)