BN's coup is actually good for Pakatan
Ong Kian MingPublished: Feb 6, 2009 5:56 AM | Updated: Feb 6, 2009 8:09 AM
Dr Zambry Abdul Kadir, the state assemblyman from Pangkor, will today be sworn in by the Sultan of Perak as the new menteri besar. PM-in-waiting Najib Razak has scored a major coup by ‘trumping’ Anwar Ibrahim in the defection game. He will strut into the Umno general assembly in March with his head held high and chest pumped out.
Pakatan’s momentum has been stopped. Anwar has been defeated at his own game. PKR and DAP have been tested and fell short. The BN’s morale has been lifted. Perak is now under BN’s control again. Who knows which state is next? Kedah, perhaps? Even Selangor?
Dr Zambry Abdul Kadir, the state assemblyman from Pangkor, will be sworn in today by the Sultan of Perak as the new menteri besar. PM-in-waiting Najib Razak has scored a major coup by ‘trumping’ Anwar Ibrahim in the defection game. He will strut into the Umno general assembly in March with his head held high and chest pumped out.
Pakatan’s momentum has been stopped. Anwar has been defeated at his own game. PKR and DAP have been tested and fell short. The BN’s morale has been lifted. Perak is now under BN’s control again. Who knows which state is next? Kedah, perhaps? Even Selangor?
For those despairing the ‘dark clouds which have descended upon Ipoh’, remember that ‘the night is always darkest before the dawn’. The BN has scored a Pyrrhic victory. Winning back control of the Perak state government has come at a high price for BN.
Firstly, it has made getting back the non-Malay vote for BN all but impossible, not just in Perak but in other parts of the country as well. It was obvious that the non-Malays in Perak voted overwhelming for the opposition in March 2008.
Of the 25 Perak non-Umno candidates who contested in 2008, only one (from MCA) managed to win their state assembly seats. By toppling the state government, the BN has alienated the votes of most of the non-Malays in these seats, and then some.
Even the minority of non-Malay voters who were sympathetic to BN or to the non-Malay component parties in the 2008 general election would find it difficult to justify voting for BN the next time.
Lack of non-Malays in BN government
More so, now that the 28 BN state representatives (minus the three ‘independents’) comprises 27 Malays and 1 Chinese. The non-Malays would effectively ‘lose’ the position of the speaker of the state assembly as well as a couple of exco positions normally allocated to MCA, Gerakan and MIC.
Secondly, this episode has tipped the balance of Malay support towards Pakatan. Fears that Anwar may be giving in too much to the non-Malays will undoubtedly be replaced by anger over the extent to which BN will sink to hold on to the reins of power.
The Malay swing against the BN in 1999 was not so much a demonstration of support for Anwar per se but a massive protest vote against the abuse of power by BN. The Perak episode will have a similar though smaller impact among the Malays in Perak and in other parts of Peninsular Malaysia.
Thirdly, this has given additional ammunition for Pakatan to undermine Najib’s administration right from the start. No doubt, Anwar and Pakatan would have found other ways to attack Najib but the Perak episode has given them extra impetus to mobilise public support and opinion against Najib’s incoming administration.
Furthermore, the incoming Perak state government will have to contend against 28 angry opposition Aduns (state assemblypersons), eight of whom were excos. If Najib is forced to resort to further repressive or ‘buyout’ strategies, it would further fuel the fire of public dissatisfaction which Pakatan will undoubtedly take advantage of.
Fourthly, by forming the new Perak state government, Najib has inherited a new set of problems for himself and his incoming administration. He will have to deal with problems associated with the selection of excos, the lack of non-Malays in the state government, the political infighting that is heightened when state resources are at stake and the usual problems associated with running a state government.
Furthermore, the practices associated with cronyism, patronage and corruption are not going to suddenly stop within BN in Perak just because a new state government is sworn in.
Anwar needed that kick in the butt
Fifthly, by turning the tables on Anwar, Najib has effectively stopped him from speaking out further about enticing BN crossovers, at least for now. If Anwar is smart, he would use this time to concentrate instead on building up his own party (so that better candidates are selected the next time) and Pakatan’s internal cohesion as well as playing a more effective role as the leader of the opposition.
He would be doing the rakyat a bigger service by focusing on the deteriorating economy and the government’s response to it rather than focusing his energies on inviting BN crossovers to join his side. Perak might have been the kick in the rear that Anwar and Pakatan needed.
Some may say that Najib had no choice in manufacturing the ‘coup’ in Perak. He had to do something to ensure his own political survival and to put a stop to Pakatan’s growing momentum. This may be true, but Najib’s ‘victory’ in Perak comes at a great cost to himself as well as to the BN.
Pakatan has suffered a temporary setback but they can capitalise on this opportunity by being responsible opposition leaders until the next general elections.
ONG KIAN MING is a PhD candidate in political science at Duke University. He can be reached at im.ok.man@gmail dot com.
Pakatan’s momentum has been stopped. Anwar has been defeated at his own game. PKR and DAP have been tested and fell short. The BN’s morale has been lifted. Perak is now under BN’s control again. Who knows which state is next? Kedah, perhaps? Even Selangor? For those despairing the ‘dark clouds which have descended upon Ipoh’, remember that ‘the night is always darkest before the dawn’. The BN has scored a Pyrrhic victory. Winning back control of the Perak state government has come at a high price for BN.
Firstly, it has made getting back the non-Malay vote for BN all but impossible, not just in Perak but in other parts of the country as well. It was obvious that the non-Malays in Perak voted overwhelming for the opposition in March 2008.
Of the 25 Perak non-Umno candidates who contested in 2008, only one (from MCA) managed to win their state assembly seats. By toppling the state government, the BN has alienated the votes of most of the non-Malays in these seats, and then some.Even the minority of non-Malay voters who were sympathetic to BN or to the non-Malay component parties in the 2008 general election would find it difficult to justify voting for BN the next time.
Lack of non-Malays in BN government
More so, now that the 28 BN state representatives (minus the three ‘independents’) comprises 27 Malays and 1 Chinese. The non-Malays would effectively ‘lose’ the position of the speaker of the state assembly as well as a couple of exco positions normally allocated to MCA, Gerakan and MIC.
Secondly, this episode has tipped the balance of Malay support towards Pakatan. Fears that Anwar may be giving in too much to the non-Malays will undoubtedly be replaced by anger over the extent to which BN will sink to hold on to the reins of power.
The Malay swing against the BN in 1999 was not so much a demonstration of support for Anwar per se but a massive protest vote against the abuse of power by BN. The Perak episode will have a similar though smaller impact among the Malays in Perak and in other parts of Peninsular Malaysia.
Thirdly, this has given additional ammunition for Pakatan to undermine Najib’s administration right from the start. No doubt, Anwar and Pakatan would have found other ways to attack Najib but the Perak episode has given them extra impetus to mobilise public support and opinion against Najib’s incoming administration.Furthermore, the incoming Perak state government will have to contend against 28 angry opposition Aduns (state assemblypersons), eight of whom were excos. If Najib is forced to resort to further repressive or ‘buyout’ strategies, it would further fuel the fire of public dissatisfaction which Pakatan will undoubtedly take advantage of.
Fourthly, by forming the new Perak state government, Najib has inherited a new set of problems for himself and his incoming administration. He will have to deal with problems associated with the selection of excos, the lack of non-Malays in the state government, the political infighting that is heightened when state resources are at stake and the usual problems associated with running a state government.Furthermore, the practices associated with cronyism, patronage and corruption are not going to suddenly stop within BN in Perak just because a new state government is sworn in.
Anwar needed that kick in the butt
Fifthly, by turning the tables on Anwar, Najib has effectively stopped him from speaking out further about enticing BN crossovers, at least for now. If Anwar is smart, he would use this time to concentrate instead on building up his own party (so that better candidates are selected the next time) and Pakatan’s internal cohesion as well as playing a more effective role as the leader of the opposition.
He would be doing the rakyat a bigger service by focusing on the deteriorating economy and the government’s response to it rather than focusing his energies on inviting BN crossovers to join his side. Perak might have been the kick in the rear that Anwar and Pakatan needed.
Some may say that Najib had no choice in manufacturing the ‘coup’ in Perak. He had to do something to ensure his own political survival and to put a stop to Pakatan’s growing momentum. This may be true, but Najib’s ‘victory’ in Perak comes at a great cost to himself as well as to the BN.
Pakatan has suffered a temporary setback but they can capitalise on this opportunity by being responsible opposition leaders until the next general elections.
ONG KIAN MING is a PhD candidate in political science at Duke University. He can be reached at im.ok.man@gmail dot com.
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