Light and darkness: Reflections on KT
Both the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat packed up quickly after the Kuala Terengganu by-election was won decisively by PAS on Saturday.
Both the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat packed up quickly after the Kuala Terengganu by-election was won decisively by PAS on Saturday.
The opposition’s 2,631 majority builds the much-needed momentum for Pakatan after it failed to deliver on its promise of taking over power on Sept 16 last year.
The results also point to endemic problems in BN, which are only likely to continue as the blame game has begun.
“Kuala Terang Anu” is shining light on the strengths and weaknesses of both contesting sides, with the opposition’s fortunes brightening.
Chinese in KT more conservative
The focus of media analyses have centred on the Chinese voters. These voters were seen as crucial bellwethers of the opposition’s appeal across races and the electoral viability of weakened non-Malay component BN parties, particularly MCA.
The latter is claiming victory, and Pakatan’s component parties are quietly on the defensive. What happened?
First of all, it is important to understand that not all Chinese in Malaysia are the same. The dominance of the ethnic lens in politics obscures important regional and generational differences.
Most of the Chinese in KT are much more conservative than their counterparts on the West Coast. Many are members of MCA, which has a well-oiled regional machine in this east coast capital. As such, their support of the opposition has traditionally been much more tempered than elsewhere.
Coupled with this conservatism is a deep pragmatism of working in a BN-led state. Many KT Chinese worried about possible recriminations if they did not support the BN, as the message of the community being targeted hit home.
Not only were KT Chinese worried about financial losses, but there was concern that on the eve of the Umno party elections (where racial chest-thumping is the norm), the party would put KT Chinese in its sights.
Fear did resonate. Yet, so did the rewards and incentives as the over RM35 million of promises sweetened the pot for needy Chinese schools and projects.
Local concerns were crucial, as many Chinese KT voters stationed outside did not come back for the polls. Chinese voter turnout dropped by 10% with more than 1,000 Chinese voters not returning.
Disproportionally, these voters vote for the opposition, reflecting the national mood among many Chinese Malaysians.
The opposition also miscalculated, failing to bring in their big guns in the last days of the campaign.
Senior DAP and PKR leaders returned early, believing that their missions were done. They forgot that the lesson they benefitted from in March 2008, that campaign momentum can change and those that gain are those that stay on the ground consistently.
Malay swing proved decisive
The picture among the Malay community is equally multi-faceted, and arguably even more significant.
In this contest, the Malay swing proved to be the most important, as voters from all three Malay state seats moved toward PAS. The gains were not large, but enough to collectively point to a trend that went beyond a few kampungs.
The most bandied reason for the shift was perceptions of the candidates.
These did matter, but not just at the level of who was ‘sombong’ and who was clean. At issue were what the candidate represented – a wealthy connected “chosen” elite who lived outstation contesting against a locally-rooted grassroots former civil servant and middle-class businessman.
For Umno, the gap that exists between its leaders and “ordinary” Malays has widened, and in many ways this contest shows how voters in the Malay heartland are responding to Umno’s growing elitism.
Another dimension of the candidate factor was the perception that Umno candidate Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh’s family had disproportionately benefitted from his political connections. Ironically, many of those stirring the pot of disgruntlement were from Umno itself, as the party continues to face divisions within its own ranks.
The KT Umno division is one of the weakest in the state, and it showed as the machinery took its time to get started and local leadership was lacking. The weaknesses in the local Umno spilled over into the campaign.
The effect was that more responsibility for leading the campaign was assumed by the national leadership, by Najib, who did work tirelessly.
His consistent presence pushed the Umno machinery in gear and, like the 2005 Pengkalan Pasir by-election, Umno made considerable gains toward the latter half of the campaign.
In this case, however, the gains were not enough. At the same time, Najib’s presence only served to make the campaign a national contest. Malays outstation came home to send a message to Umno, and to Najib, of dissatisfaction.
The peppering of posters with the picture of murdered Mongolian woman Altantuya Shaariibuu illustrated the persistence of unanswered questions and, more broadly, Najib’s credibility gap involving the case.
For many Malays in KT, particularly for the estimated 12,000 Malay fence sitters, it came down to this combination of representation and trust, in which PAS gained the advantage.
PAS wisely projected Nik Aziz Nik Mat as its leader, avoiding public calls for Islamic governance and the use of Abdul Hadi Awang’s image which would have fed into this controversy.
The end impact was that PAS’ less extremist approach reached more voters.
Young Malays backed PAS, women voted BN
Three other important cleavages were also at play. The sharpest difference was age.
The ‘saluran’ (voting groups) data points to a swing away from BN among younger voters, particularly acute among younger Malays. This fact perhaps more than any other should be setting off alarm bells in Umno headquarters. The party is not only losing its Malay base, but it is disproportionately losing its future base.
Here is where Umno continues to make serious miscalculations. Umno did not embrace new media messaging, and rested on mobilising its youth divisions that came to town in fancy large cars wearing party shirts that were described as ‘Umno Rempit’ – with disparaging thuggish overtones.
They played a pivotal role in distributing the electoral spoils. Unlike the ‘wang ehsan’ effect that brought a generation of voters back into the Umno fold after 1999, today’s new KT voters were less swayed by financial incentives. Consistently younger voters spoke of the need for jobs, for inspiring leadership, for inclusion – a positive message that Umno did not offer.
Where Umno did gain was in holding onto female support. Disproportionately, women – both Chinese and Malay – supported Umno. This is more a reflection of PAS than Umno, as its message of Islamic governance worried many women, especially those in the town centre.
The backward approach of PAS Terengganu against using women in the campaign as speakers (denying them inclusion in some events at night) and systematic exclusion of women voices within the local party leadership limited the outreach to women voters.
Umno, in contrast, used its women and Puteri divisions effectively. The message and the messaging mattered, as the appeal to women kept BN’s base competitive.
KT also highlighted the appeal of the parties to different classes.
PAS, tapping into issues of economic marginalisation and inequality, disproportionately won lower-class voters, while those more wealthy, more tied into the distribution of state funds, swayed toward Umno.
The competitive contest was for the middle-class, which in KT was comprised of civil servants. The competition for this group was fierce, as Umno reminded those employed by the state that it was “their duty” to vote for the state.
Most civil servants kept mum on their support, and a close look at the local results suggest some swung away from the BN. Part of this was driven by local dynamics as PAS candidate Abdul Wahid Endut’s credentials as a former civil servant was well-known.
Yet the defeat is an early sign of growing unease with Abdullah Ahmad Badawi-Najib’s leadership. How much and to the extent that it will persist is unknown, but KT confirms Umno’s Malay base is contracting.
Defeat signals Najib’s public legitimacy gap
The loss was actually a double-whammy for Umno’s leadership as both Abdullah (whose loyal candidate lost) and Najib (who led the campaign) were tainted by the results.
Abdullah left town quickly and went overseas. His focus appears to be on his retirement, as he leaves the party he led weaker publicly than it has ever been. Najib’s rise is likely to continue, since there are no known strong challengers to question the transition plan emerging.
Yet, the loss has already fed the fodder of unease about Najib’s leadership. For those in the system, the loss signals Najib’s public legitimacy gap – he does not appear to have the support of the majority of Malaysians.
Three contests have shown this, and although he is likely to have the advantage in the expected next by-election later this year in Sabah, the losses do not bode well for a rising national leader.
For those outside of the system, this election shows that the sirens of calls for reform have fallen on deaf ears. Umno leaders appear only to be interested in themselves and their own fortunes, rather than repairing the serious flaws in governance and credibility.
Not only do Umno leaders appeal deaf to calls for change, they appear blind to the evaporation of its political base.
For the opposition, the victory provides a boost, as the lauding of cooperation among the three component parties of Pakatan has begun. This contest has served to bring many on different ideological divide closer together, as Terengganu PAS has acknowledged that their victory would not have been possible without its opposition partners.
They apparently understand that PKR boss Anwar Ibrahim and DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang’s presence in KT did have an impact in building support. PAS’ commitment to staying in Pakatan seems reinforced.
Yet, KT is not quite the pact sealing of Telok Pasu 1989 in that ideological schisms of differences over Islamic governance have persisted.
The campaign war of words over hudud has left an imprint and points to the need for continued dialogue on the parameters of different positions.
While the light may be shining on the opposition, there are dark spots in the corners that cast a shadow over effective cooperation.
Two key bright spots
So, where is the light most bright? KT’s results point to two important bright spots in the electoral process as a whole.
First, the contest was more balanced. The Election Commission was more measured and quite professional in this contest, with the resignation of the returning officer illustrating this best.
The hanky panky of phantom voters and issues of electoral manipulation did not show its hand this round, although there were questionable buses around and the practice of vote-buying continued. These problems did not prove to be decisive.
The police and the FRU handled themselves professionally. The almost 6,000 officers did not affect the final result, and, in fact, in the one minor incident where the FRU was dispatched at the end of polling in Batu Burok, they arbitrated a conflict.
Overall, KT shows that electoral fairness is increasing, primarily to a combination of closer vigilance and the new EC leadership led by Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof.
The results show at the same time that the electorate is continuing to ask more of political parties. The deterioration of BN support among youth in particular shows that money politics and vote-buying is no longer enough for Malaysians. Parties need to deliver inclusion, governance and solutions to problems, not empty promises.
Many voters in KT wanted more than was offered, but ultimately chose to come out and participate in high numbers (79.73% turnout) in what they knew would be an important political contest.
The party that embraces rising demand and appreciates greater voter sophistication will ultimately gain the most ahead.
DR BRIDGET WELSH is associate professor in Southeast Asian studies at John Hopkins University-SAIS, Washington DC. She is in Kuala Terengganu to observe the by-election.
