BA can forget about replacing BN
When BA was formed, the burning issue was the mistreatment of Anwar Ibrahim who was the symbol for all opposition parties to work together against Barisan Nasional in general, and Dr Mahathir Mohamad in particular.
PAS, DAP, Keadilan and PRM managed to work out a common manifesto for the 1999 general elections titled "Towards a just Malaysia". Anwar was even named as candidate for the position of prime minister if the coalition was to come to power. The ideological differences between DAP and PAS did not matter then.
Everything changed after the general elections when BA failed to reduce the two-thirds majority of BN. However, PAS did very well while the other parties did not for various reasons. Hence, PAS took the centrestage in BA by default. This is where the problem lies.
A political coalition must be led by a broad-based core political party which can pull the rest of the parties together. For BN, Umno is the backbone; without it BN will disintegrate. Not all parties in BN share the same policy of Umno yet they remain together.
For BA, Keadilan should have been the core party since DAP is considered a left-of-centre political party while PAS is a right-of-centre party in the political spectrum. If this scenario had worked, than BA would have reflected a more balance political outlook reducing the effect of the 'uncomfortable' aspects of both PAS and DAP. If that had happened, BA had a good chance of coming to power in the future. However, this has failed to materialise due to three factors:
1) In the last general elections, Keadilan did not win enough parliamentary seats to match PAS' strength. If the combined strength of Keadilan and DAP had been more than that of PAS, Keadilan could have led the coalition.
2) Keadilan did not have a charismatic leader to command the respect of all the parties in BA. Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail was too busy with the 'Anwar Ibrahim' issue to make her presence more meaningful and effective.
3) Keadilan did not project a clear political agenda for BA to follow. It allowed PAS to make all the moves and become the leader of the coalition. This pulled the BA into the PAS orbit giving no choice for DAP but to leave the coalition. (If the reverse were to have happened, PAS would have to do same thing by pulling out of the coalition.)
PAS and DAP are parties with clear political objectives supported by certain significant sections of the population.
But what does Keadilan stand for and how much support it really has? The party leadership has failed to explain their policy to the public. Rightly or wrongly, people identify Keadilan with only the 'Anwar Ibrahim' issue. Unfortunately, people are now slowly forgetting Anwar.
Even on the Islamic state issue, Keadilan and PRM tried to take a neutral stand but did nothing concrete to have the issue discussed and resolved within the BA framework, if there really had been one. This is because BA did not have a proper organisation to keep the component parties together. BA failed because it did not stick to its own manifesto issued before the 1999 general elections.
The prophets of doom predict that DAP will disappear from the political scene soon after leaving BA. This, I think, is wishful thinking. For in reality, DAP is still relevant for the urban electorate in the foreseeable future. DAP will surely bounce back in the next general elections. It has been around for more than 35 years while BA (or for that matter Keadilan) is only two years old.
We must remember what happened to Semangat 46. Though Keadilan and Semangat 46 are not identical, it must be remembered that a majority of the Keadilan members are formerly from Umno. Keadilan has not been around long enough for Malaysians to know its true strength.
It will be a costly mistake if Keadilan were to think it can replace DAP in the traditional areas and act on it. The best way forward for Keadilan and DAP is to come to a working understanding before the next general elections to avoid splitting opposition votes.
There are also lessons to be learnt from the Likas by-election and Sarawak state election. Keadilan cannot assume Malaysians are ready for change. As a new party, Keadilan must work with existing parties and build its base. It cannot just replace established opposition parties at will. It must show it can do more than the other parties before offering itself as a better choice.
PAS will still command support in Kelantan and Terengganu. With the current external factor brought about by the terrorists attacks in the US, PAS' influence in Malaysia will start to wane. Partly, PAS has brought this on itself by not being clear on its stand when the ancient Buddha statues in Afghanistan were destroyed by the Taliban. Readers of Harakah will not fail to see the party's stance on these issues. PAS is a party, which up to now, has to work within the democratic framework in Malaysia and it should not be branded as extremist. PAS is a misunderstood party due to its inability to be open and clear on the Islamic state issue.
PAS will continue to be a political force in the future but is unlikely to come to power at federal level on its own. It must be prepared to take a more moderate stand on its Islamic state issue to earn significant non-Malay and non-Muslim support.
Tragic though the Sept 11 event is, it must work in Mahathir and BN's favour as the so-called "threat by terrorists" will swing the support of the floating voters to BN. It will be the opposition parties that will be hard-pressed in the next general elections while Mahathir can relax a bit. Can the opposition hold on to what they already have? Only time will tell.
The opposition should start to evaluate the changed political situation and work together to avoid wasting their limited resources to prepare for the next general elections. The best hope for year 2004 is to try to reduce the BN's two-third majority at the federal level. Forget about replacing BN in the next general elections.
