Trade and Industry Deputy Minister Kerk Choo Ting has announced a new high to be achieved in exports for the year 2001. He did not give the figures his projection of RM390 billion is based on.

The first six months produced RM169.1 billion in total exports for the year, and if this is doubled, a figure of RM338.2 billion is obtained. This target assumes export activity will average the same for the second half of the year. That would entail an average total export value of RM28.33 billion per month.

July, the first month of the second half, came in at RM26.9 billion. This is not a good start. What then is the minister's expectation for the last five months? Since the first seven months have produced a total export figure of RM196 billion, the last five months will have to be exciting indeed. To reach the minister's prediction, of RM390 billion, total exports for the remaining five months must reach RM194.9 billion. This is an average of RM38.8 billion per month. There is nothing to warrant this degree of optimism.

The minister's optimism come prior to the closure of the stock exchange to buffer the events in the US. IT is reported on page 25 of the business section of the New Straits Times newspaper. There is no byline, but there is a tagline indicating the source as the national news service, Bernama.

Both Bernama and the ministers struggle to present news that does not generate humour, as many recent events give evidence. Questioned as to the source of a news item lauding Malaysia's freedoms, purportedly coming from an American think tank, Bernama defended its integrity, insisting that they always check their sources before printing. They are unfazed by the revelation that the source has proved to be specious.

The chairmanship of NSTP is in rotation, and this may explain some of the dizziness in the stories, but have they misquoted the trade and industry deputy minister? The story quotes the minister as saying, "Our forecast (export earnings) for this year would be RM390 billion." He made his forecast in Petaling Jaya, following the launch of a conference on going public.

The story then reports that "Last year, Malaysia recorded export earnings of RM360 billion." Perhaps the writer meant total exports rather than 'export earnings', whatever that might be.

There is some confusion remaining in the mind of the public, and some clarification from the Trade and Industry Ministry is in order. The deputy minister has little to do other than perform simple arithmetical calculations on the monthly export and import figures. Given that ribbon-cutting and conference launchings are demanding of time and energy, one still expects a modicum of competence.

A little earlier this year the employees of the ministry were busy sending Internet viruses to this writer, and perhaps this important activity has distracted the statisticians and speech writers in the ministry from proper attention to its economic affairs.

Editor's note: Some figures have been revised by the writer after this letter was uploaded.