It’s D-day for the 2008 US presidential election. It has thrown up an astounding exhibition of a bloody-thirsty bid for the White House, especially by the Democratic camp.

It was first all about Clinton vs Obama, with the former first lady seemingly in the driving seat, but we know what happened then. There are the forgotten candidates in John Edwards and Mitt Romney among other hopefuls.

john mccain and sarah palinFor the Republicans, it's all about John McCain now, the war veteran, the 'reformist' and the tax eliminator.

Sarah Palin, at 44 is the youngest ever vice-presidential candidate and the first woman to go for the position for the Republican party.

This may be more of a hindrance than a help as she appears to be too straight talking to appear as shallow, subsequently being parodied by Tina Fey on Saturday Night Live, and being blasted for her US$150,000 wardrobe. It is clear that comedians are liberalists, as there are few Obama or Biden jokes, although they gave an excuse that parodying them would simply not be funny.

The whole world is waiting for the outcome with interest. I have not been immune to the election fever and would like to put in my two sen worth from the outside.

Although I do not fully agree with or understand the US Electoral College, where a candidate has to achieve 270 votes to secure the presidency, it gives us a very good indication of who is firmly in the driving seat.

america us presidential election 2008 state electoral college votes 031108CNN has given us the chance to play with the votes on its Electoral Map Calculator which I have thoroughly enjoyed using. In doing so I have come up with scenarios on how the results may pan out.

First of all, I'd like to establish the following electoral votes which are virtually guaranteed to each candidate. (See Chart)

Each candidate has wrapped up 15 states, leaving 20 states still in contention. Obama has a firm lead, securing 81 more College votes than McCain, as he has firm support in states with substantial pull, such as California with 55 votes.

McCain has taken only one big scalp in Texas, with 34 votes. Now we can consider the following scenarios of how the other 20 states could cast their votes.

Scenario 1 - repeat of 2004

It would be safe to assume that states which had voted Democrat in 2004 will do so again. The basis of that assumption is that John Kerry was a weaker candidate and had more radical policies than Obama. Furthermore, the thought of having another republican in control for the next four year may be too much for these states.

Therefore, we could add Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota to Obama's total, which would be an additional 49 Electoral College votes to give him a new total of 252 votes.

Likewise, we could assume that the states which had voted for a Republican in 2004 will do so again. This includes the key states of Ohio and Florida. McCain could get 286 Electoral College votes and win the presidency. However, this is very unlikely to happen.

Scenario 2 - 'rogue states'

Obama could win all the states which voted Democrat in 2004, giving him 252 Electoral College votes. Now let's take into consideration states which are considered to be leaning towards either candidate.

Polls in the state of Virginia which voted Republican in 2004 show Obama in the lead with 53% against 44% for McCain. In Iowa, Obama leads McCain 52% to 42%. Also in Colorado and New Mexico, Obama is ahead in the polls at 53% and 45% respectively to McCain's 45% and 40%.

This could give Obama an additional 27 votes, taking his total to 286 Electoral College votes, which is enough to win him the presidency by the same margin as George W Bush in 2004.

McCain could win all other states including the two major swing states of Ohio and Florida but only end up with 252 Electoral College votes.

Scenario 3 - poll tales

There could be radical changes to the Electoral College map come election day. The traditionally Republican states of Nevada and North Dakota are edging in favour of Obama, at 50% and 45% respectively to McCain's 40% and 43%.

Having a look at the 'swing' states, Missouri has McCain leading Obama marginally at 50% to 48%, and Indiana has Obama leading at 48% to 47%. In North Carolina, Obama leads McCain 52% to 46%, which would be a massive scalp for the Democrats as the state has traditionally voted Republican.

As for the two major swing states, Obama has comfortable leads in the polls in both Ohio and Florida, both states who had previously voted Republican. He leads McCain 49% to 40% and 51% to 47% respectively.

Ceteris paribus, this would mean that Obama will rack up 367 Electoral College votes to McCain's 171, which would deal a crushing blow to the Republican party and ring up a huge triumph for the Democratic party. This is moderately likely to happen.

Scenario 4 - Ohio and Florida (red)

In order to win the election, McCain has to win both Ohio and Florida. In addition, he has to win Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia which are all leaning towards Obama.

McCain will also have to win all the states where he is tied with Obama - namely, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Montana and Arizona. This would give McCain 279 votes to Obama’s tally of 259.

Even if Obama wins either Nevada or New Mexico, McCain could still win by 10 votes. Obama could win Colorado, but lose New Mexico and Nevada, which would give McCain victory at 270 votes - or by just two votes.

If McCain pulls off a brilliant upset and wins Pennsylvania, he would have to rely on Obama losing Colorado, New Mexico or Nevada. If he doesn’t, Obama could win the election with exactly 270 votes. However Obama has to rely on winning Virginia as well. If not, McCain with win with 281 votes.

There is also a possibility of a stalemate, where McCain wins Colorado, but Obama wins both New Mexico and Nevada. They would then have 269 votes each, which is unprecedented and extremely unlikely to happen.

Therefore, even if McCain manages to win Ohio and Florida, he will still have to win the three democratically-inclined states of Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia, as well as all the undecided states excluding Nevada. This would seal his victory with 274 Electoral College votes - five more than Obama - but this is very unlikely to happen.

Scenario 5 - Ohio and Florida (blue)

As established in Scenario 4, even if McCain wins Ohio and Florida, Obama can still win by holding onto the ‘blue’states. If Obama can hold on to Virginia, even if there are Republican victories in New Mexico and Colorado, he will secure the presidency.

Now, if Obama wins just Ohio where he currently has a 9-point lead, he could lose Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada and still win the presidency comfortably with 279 votes.

Likewise if he were to win Florida and lose Ohio, he could win with 286 votes.

Under these circumstances, the worst case scenario is that Obama may win just Ohio which has fewer Electoral College votes than Florida, but still get 279 votes. He should, however, get a higher margin than just 10 votes.

Scenario 6 - considered personal judgment

McCain faces a huge uphill battle as the blue wave of change sweeps across the US.

barack obama american president 041108I firmly believe that the states which are leaning towards the Democrats will remain ‘blue’.

This would give Obama the presidency with 286 Electoral College votes.

I firmly believe that he will win Nevada, Ohio and Florida, whereas McCain will secure North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri.

My conclusion is that Obama will become the president-elect with 338 Electoral College votes, against McCain who will finish with 200 votes.


DOUGLAS TAN is a law graduate from the University of Nottingham and a keen political observer of Malaysian and American politics. The views expressed are his own.