Be grateful the sky fell in
W Scott ThompsonPublished: Oct 24, 2008 2:53 AM | Updated: Oct 24, 2008 2:59 AM
I want to advance a contrarian argument on the world economy. I see 10 good reasons for being thankful for the trauma the world has just gone through.
I hope my argument is strengthened by my encounter by a merchant banker in New York, who said that in the past two weeks he had lost half his entire wealth and didn’t regret it, since it ensured the election of Barack Obama as US president.
I want to advance a contrarian argument on the world economy. I see 10 good reasons for being thankful for the trauma the world has just gone through.
I hope my argument is strengthened by my encounter by a merchant banker in New York, who said that in the past two weeks he had lost half his entire wealth and didn’t regret it, since it ensured the election of Barack Obama as US president.
1. The great Abbé de Sieyes, asked what he ‘did’ during the French Revolution, replied J’ai servecu (I survived).
So first of all, we survived. Not everyone, but the losers were more the greedy than the needy. And anytime one survives a crisis one becomes stronger - if one learns the lessons, as I think the world is doing.
2. Globalisation has advanced in its biggest step ever. The coordinated interest rate cuts by the great national banks did more to bring the world together than any act ever.
3. Is the world worse off for the collapse of once-smug great houses of finance like Lehman or Beare Stearns? I don’t think so. Does anyone weep that the once-titan Westerners who drew trillions of rupiah or billions of ringgit, celebrating greed, can make no more?
4. Sharks beware! Never again will you issue frivolous mortgages that risk the health of the now more intertwined international financial fates. Never again can American financial houses ignore the impact of their magic wand on the finances of Iceland or Japan - nor European central banks.
5. Power has been redistributed in the world for the better. American arrogance took a hit, and fast-moving economies in the third world have gained relative ground. Indeed without the space these have given the old industrial world, the crisis could have been far worse.
6. Of course the polls in America can narrow, but it’s not likely. Osama bin Laden can try another 9-11: he wants McCain to win (on the Leninist principle, ‘the worse [in the US] the better’).
Still, the crisis all but guarantees the election of Obama, the most significant political event in America since Abe Lincoln’s election, and for the world the most significant event since World War II - not so much because of what he stands for, but for the mere fact of who he is and what that means for a multicultural world.
7. The crisis strengthens all multilateral institutes, from the IMF (fortuitously and fortunately meeting just recently in Washington) to small NGOs.
8. The crisis has helped all the little guys and gals: deposits are now guaranteed at higher levels. Where fortunes were destroyed it was only where risk had been assumed in building them.
9. The crisis trivialised the ‘war on terror’ and put paid to its threats: not that Osama is tamed but his role is now in perspective. Make the financial world healthy again but on a stronger basis for the poor and the weak, and his threat will dissipate more rapidly. Did anyone notice - it is almost all the Arab countries in the front of the lines against terrorism?
10. Put paid also to the truly trivial. The appalling anointment of a political airhead to be a heartbeat away from an elderly presidential candidate in the world’s still most powerful country is now seen for what it is, and the ‘Palin gain’ of September has become the guffaw of October. The crisis all but guarantees the election of Obama - and that is a wonderful thing for America and the world.
Colin Powell declared for Obama, partly because of the anointment of Sarah Palin: the job of the vice-president is to be ready to be president, he said, and she is not qualified.
Obama would have won anyway, but now he will go with an entitled triumphalism showing what America can be, once again. The ‘light on the hill’ may now burn brighter than it ever has!
W SCOTT THOMPSON is a national security expert who served four American Presidents and is a professor emeritus at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He is the author or editor of 13 books on world political issues and resides in Washington, Bali and Manila.
I hope my argument is strengthened by my encounter by a merchant banker in New York, who said that in the past two weeks he had lost half his entire wealth and didn’t regret it, since it ensured the election of Barack Obama as US president.1. The great Abbé de Sieyes, asked what he ‘did’ during the French Revolution, replied J’ai servecu (I survived).
So first of all, we survived. Not everyone, but the losers were more the greedy than the needy. And anytime one survives a crisis one becomes stronger - if one learns the lessons, as I think the world is doing.
2. Globalisation has advanced in its biggest step ever. The coordinated interest rate cuts by the great national banks did more to bring the world together than any act ever.
3. Is the world worse off for the collapse of once-smug great houses of finance like Lehman or Beare Stearns? I don’t think so. Does anyone weep that the once-titan Westerners who drew trillions of rupiah or billions of ringgit, celebrating greed, can make no more?
4. Sharks beware! Never again will you issue frivolous mortgages that risk the health of the now more intertwined international financial fates. Never again can American financial houses ignore the impact of their magic wand on the finances of Iceland or Japan - nor European central banks.
5. Power has been redistributed in the world for the better. American arrogance took a hit, and fast-moving economies in the third world have gained relative ground. Indeed without the space these have given the old industrial world, the crisis could have been far worse.
6. Of course the polls in America can narrow, but it’s not likely. Osama bin Laden can try another 9-11: he wants McCain to win (on the Leninist principle, ‘the worse [in the US] the better’).Still, the crisis all but guarantees the election of Obama, the most significant political event in America since Abe Lincoln’s election, and for the world the most significant event since World War II - not so much because of what he stands for, but for the mere fact of who he is and what that means for a multicultural world.
7. The crisis strengthens all multilateral institutes, from the IMF (fortuitously and fortunately meeting just recently in Washington) to small NGOs.
8. The crisis has helped all the little guys and gals: deposits are now guaranteed at higher levels. Where fortunes were destroyed it was only where risk had been assumed in building them.
9. The crisis trivialised the ‘war on terror’ and put paid to its threats: not that Osama is tamed but his role is now in perspective. Make the financial world healthy again but on a stronger basis for the poor and the weak, and his threat will dissipate more rapidly. Did anyone notice - it is almost all the Arab countries in the front of the lines against terrorism?
10. Put paid also to the truly trivial. The appalling anointment of a political airhead to be a heartbeat away from an elderly presidential candidate in the world’s still most powerful country is now seen for what it is, and the ‘Palin gain’ of September has become the guffaw of October. The crisis all but guarantees the election of Obama - and that is a wonderful thing for America and the world.Colin Powell declared for Obama, partly because of the anointment of Sarah Palin: the job of the vice-president is to be ready to be president, he said, and she is not qualified.
Obama would have won anyway, but now he will go with an entitled triumphalism showing what America can be, once again. The ‘light on the hill’ may now burn brighter than it ever has!
W SCOTT THOMPSON is a national security expert who served four American Presidents and is a professor emeritus at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He is the author or editor of 13 books on world political issues and resides in Washington, Bali and Manila.
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