2008 tsunami: Was it a protest vote?
Ong Kian Ming and Oon YeohPublished: Apr 23, 2008 5:35 AM | Updated: Apr 23, 2008 5:42 AM
analysis Since the shocking election results last month, we have been having sporadic discussions on whether people voted for the opposition or whether they voted against Barisan Nasional.
This type of discussion could very easily degenerate into a debate on semantics. To avoid this, we need to phrase the issue clearly. Did voters intend for the opposition to win or was it a protest vote against BN?
Understanding the difference between the two is important since they have very different electoral implications for the future.
analysis Since the shocking election results last month, we have been having sporadic discussions on whether people voted for the opposition or whether they voted against Barisan Nasional.
This type of discussion could very easily degenerate into a debate on semantics. To avoid this, we need to phrase the issue clearly. Did voters intend for the opposition to win or was it a protest vote against BN?
Understanding the difference between the two is important since they have very different electoral implications for the future.
So, what does a vote for the opposition mean? We understand it to mean that the votes were cast to bring the opposition into power and to “kick the (BN) bums out”. In contrast, a protest vote is cast to send a strong signal to BN that it needs to change its ways but it’s not designed to put the opposition in power.
A typical example of a protest vote could be a Chinese vote for PAS over BN – simply because they want to send a signal to BN to buck up, not because they support PAS. Such voters would likely swing back to BN once it responds positively to the protest message.
We have different takes on whether the opposition’s victories were due to a vote for the opposition or a protest vote against the BN. Oon, who was on the ground in Penang and Klang Valley is inclined to believe that at least in those two areas, people were ready to "throw the bums out" whereas Kian Ming, looking at historical trends, believes that generally, it was probably more of a protest vote.
It could be the case that there were more “voting for the opposition” types in say Penang, and more of “protest voting against the BN” in other areas. All indications thus far, however, are anecdotal in nature. In the absence of a public opinion survey, it's really hard to tell what the actual situation was although it is noted that the ‘protest vote’ view is the conventional wisdom even amongst pro-opposition commentators.
Be that as it may, Oon and Kian Ming are in agreement that post elections – with the absence of violence, the growing unity amongst Pakatan Rakyat parties and the populist measures that are being introduced in the states they control – people now generally view the opposition’s gains as a good thing.
This means that for those who “voted for the opposition”, the results are likely to strengthen their resolve since it shows that their votes actually translated into the fall of five states to the opposition as well as denying BN a two-thirds majority in parliament.
BN setback may continue
Even if Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi were to push through some reforms – in the judiciary and the Anti-Corruption Agency, for example – such voters would still support the opposition as they want to see a new government come about.
For those who had cast a ‘protest vote’, the post-election euphoria could possibly convince them that supporting the opposition may not be such a bad thing after all. These ‘protest voters’ who would normally return to supporting BN in the next elections, might suddenly no longer be willing to swing back, especially since it now looks like Pakatan has an even chance of forming the next government.
Pakatan has quite a few things going working in its favour which will allow it to hold on to both groups of voters.
Firstly, the various component parties within Pakatan now seem very committed to minimising their differences in light of the larger goal of winning power. In other words, they have their eyes on the prize and they won’t let petty squabbling ruin their golden opportunity. In contrast, the two main BN parties– Umno and MCA – look like they are set for a civil war. Gerakan and MIC don’t look to be in good shape either.
Secondly, at the state level, the Pakatan governments are quickly introducing people-friendly measures such as having more multi-racial state cabinets, requiring an open tender process for projects and introducing a Freedom of Information Act. These are things that BN state governments are simply not able to or unwilling to match for a variety of reasons.
Thirdly, Abdullah’s much-touted reforms might be eventually hindered by inertia and resistance by forces within Umno and BN. Abdullah could also become too distracted by the internal struggles within his party. Pakatan can take advantage of this by arguing that it can bring about the substantive changes that Abdullah is unwilling or incapable of doing.
Fourthly, (this is something that Pakatan can’t actually take credit for but benefits from nonetheless) is the weakening world economy. The continued rise in commodity prices will have a negative impact on the cost of living in Malaysia. The BN will bear the brunt of the blame for this as they are still in power at the federal level.
Protest vote or otherwise, the swing against the BN doesn’t look like it will change any time soon. In fact, if Pakatan continues to play its cards right, BN’s temporary setback might very well turn out to be a long-lasting defeat.
ONG KIAN MING is a PhD candidate in political science at Duke University and OON YEOH is a writer and new media analyst. You can listen to both of them discuss this topic in their Realpolitik podcast.
This type of discussion could very easily degenerate into a debate on semantics. To avoid this, we need to phrase the issue clearly. Did voters intend for the opposition to win or was it a protest vote against BN?
Understanding the difference between the two is important since they have very different electoral implications for the future.
So, what does a vote for the opposition mean? We understand it to mean that the votes were cast to bring the opposition into power and to “kick the (BN) bums out”. In contrast, a protest vote is cast to send a strong signal to BN that it needs to change its ways but it’s not designed to put the opposition in power. A typical example of a protest vote could be a Chinese vote for PAS over BN – simply because they want to send a signal to BN to buck up, not because they support PAS. Such voters would likely swing back to BN once it responds positively to the protest message.
We have different takes on whether the opposition’s victories were due to a vote for the opposition or a protest vote against the BN. Oon, who was on the ground in Penang and Klang Valley is inclined to believe that at least in those two areas, people were ready to "throw the bums out" whereas Kian Ming, looking at historical trends, believes that generally, it was probably more of a protest vote.
It could be the case that there were more “voting for the opposition” types in say Penang, and more of “protest voting against the BN” in other areas. All indications thus far, however, are anecdotal in nature. In the absence of a public opinion survey, it's really hard to tell what the actual situation was although it is noted that the ‘protest vote’ view is the conventional wisdom even amongst pro-opposition commentators.
Be that as it may, Oon and Kian Ming are in agreement that post elections – with the absence of violence, the growing unity amongst Pakatan Rakyat parties and the populist measures that are being introduced in the states they control – people now generally view the opposition’s gains as a good thing.
This means that for those who “voted for the opposition”, the results are likely to strengthen their resolve since it shows that their votes actually translated into the fall of five states to the opposition as well as denying BN a two-thirds majority in parliament.
BN setback may continue
Even if Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi were to push through some reforms – in the judiciary and the Anti-Corruption Agency, for example – such voters would still support the opposition as they want to see a new government come about. For those who had cast a ‘protest vote’, the post-election euphoria could possibly convince them that supporting the opposition may not be such a bad thing after all. These ‘protest voters’ who would normally return to supporting BN in the next elections, might suddenly no longer be willing to swing back, especially since it now looks like Pakatan has an even chance of forming the next government.
Pakatan has quite a few things going working in its favour which will allow it to hold on to both groups of voters.
Firstly, the various component parties within Pakatan now seem very committed to minimising their differences in light of the larger goal of winning power. In other words, they have their eyes on the prize and they won’t let petty squabbling ruin their golden opportunity. In contrast, the two main BN parties– Umno and MCA – look like they are set for a civil war. Gerakan and MIC don’t look to be in good shape either.
Secondly, at the state level, the Pakatan governments are quickly introducing people-friendly measures such as having more multi-racial state cabinets, requiring an open tender process for projects and introducing a Freedom of Information Act. These are things that BN state governments are simply not able to or unwilling to match for a variety of reasons.
Thirdly, Abdullah’s much-touted reforms might be eventually hindered by inertia and resistance by forces within Umno and BN. Abdullah could also become too distracted by the internal struggles within his party. Pakatan can take advantage of this by arguing that it can bring about the substantive changes that Abdullah is unwilling or incapable of doing.
Fourthly, (this is something that Pakatan can’t actually take credit for but benefits from nonetheless) is the weakening world economy. The continued rise in commodity prices will have a negative impact on the cost of living in Malaysia. The BN will bear the brunt of the blame for this as they are still in power at the federal level.
Protest vote or otherwise, the swing against the BN doesn’t look like it will change any time soon. In fact, if Pakatan continues to play its cards right, BN’s temporary setback might very well turn out to be a long-lasting defeat.
ONG KIAN MING is a PhD candidate in political science at Duke University and OON YEOH is a writer and new media analyst. You can listen to both of them discuss this topic in their Realpolitik podcast.
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