Independent candidates are the recurring underdogs of Malaysian politics. Without the machinery and financial resources of registered political parties, individuals contesting alone face nearly insurmountable odds. They almost never win.

Despite their slim chances of victory, these independents hold considerable power on election day. Though they may earn only a few hundred or a few thousand votes, they have the potential to determine the outcomes of hotly contested races.

This year, in peninsular Malaysia, 10 independent candidates are running for parliamentary seats and 20 are contesting for state seats. Hardly any of these individuals are expected to win, but a number of them have the potential to spoil outcomes for BN and opposition candidates.

Malaysiakini looked at a few seats where the independent factor promises to have the greatest impact.

Parliamentary races

Periasamy Nagaratnam, Lembah Pantai

All eyes are on Lembah Pantai this year, as Anwar Ibrahim’s daughter, Nurul Izzah Anwar, is taking on BN big shot Shahrizat Abdul Jalil. The presence of independent candidate Periasamy Nagaratnam has only added drama to the already closely-watched contest.

Soon after nomination day, allegations surfaced that he was a proxy for Shahrizat and a Hindraf supporter. He has vigorously denied these claims.

Given the higher profiles and more aggressive campaigns waged by his opponents, it is not likely that Periasamy will garner a significant portion of votes. Still, if he is to spoil an outcome for anyone, it will likely be Nurul Izzah, as his vocal condemnations of the ISA could appeal to anti-government voters.

Barul Zaman, Jelutong

The DAP stronghold that belonged to the ‘Tiger of Jelutong’ until Gerakan usurped Karpal Singh’s legendary reign, in 1999, could return to opposition hands this year. And it’s possible that independent candidate Badrul Zaman could help make this happen.
With no incumbent returning to defend his title, the seat is up for grabs in a three-way fight between Gerakan’s Dr Thor Teong Gee, DAP’s Jeff Ooi and Zaman.

But though Zaman is running as an independent, he has announced his decision to join Umno if elected. Arguing that none of the parties offer a candidate who can represent Muslim Malaysians, Zaman feels confident that he will be able to earn these votes.

Although it is possible that he could gain stray protest votes, it is more probable that he would peel voters away from Thor (assuming he is successful in attracting Muslims). In a constituency that is 20 percent Malay (68 percent is Chinese and 11 percent is Indian), his presence could help tip the balance in favor of popular blogger Jeff Ooi.

Nor Rizan Oon, Sungai Siput

Standing against veterans S Samy Vellu (MIC) and Dr Michael Jeyakumar Devaraj (PKR), in Sungai Siput, a little-known independent is in for a tough fight.

Businessman Nor Rizan Oon, 49, now lives in Shah Alam, Selangor, but was born in the Perak constituency. He has said he is contesting to challenge land allocations to outsiders.

Given flaring anti-MIC sentiments around the country, it had been thought that Samy might have trouble defending his seat this time around. Although he has occupied the position for eight terms, in the wake of the Hindraf controversy, political spectators doubted Samy would be able to carry the Indian community that comprises 23 percent of the electorate.

Despite the recent flurry of attacks directed at him, Samy is now expected to win his seat comfortably in Saturday’s elections. Ground reports indicate that neither the independent nor opposition candidate has gained the momentum needed to unseat him.

M Morgan, Bukit Gantang

In Perak, three political unknowns – Umno’s Azim Zabidi, PAS newcomer Roslan Shaharum and independent M Morgan - are vying for the Bukit Gantang parliamentary seat. In hopes of returning the seat to Umno, BN shifted the outgoing Gerakan MP to Lenngong. It is thought that Morgan might give Umno an edge in this attempted power grab.

Little is known about the electrical and telephone contractor contesting as an independent candidate and he says he has not been ‘sponsored.’ But, acknowledging that about nine percent of the constituency is Indian (64 percent is Malay and 27 percent is Chinese), Azim has been quoted as saying that Morgan might divert protest votes from Hindraf supporters away from Shaharum, giving him the lead.

In 2004, Tan won the seat with nearly 17,000 votes, beating out his PAS opponents by more than 6,000 votes.

Billi Lim, Kelana Jaya

In a move that surprised many Kelana Jaya residents, MCA’s Loh Seng Kok was pulled from the seat after just one term, opening the door for three-term Subang Jaya assemblyman Lee Hwa Beng. But though Lee comes with experience and a solid contingent of supporters, victory for him is hardly assured.

To win, he will have to overtake two candidates who may be new to politics but are not entirely new to the public. The debuts of PKR’s Loh Gwo Burne, the author of the video that implicated lawyer VK Lingam in a judicial appointments scandal, and independent Billi Lim, an author and motivational speaker, have ensured that this race will be nothing if not interesting.

Given the relatively large Indian population (18 percent) and relatively small Malay population (42 percent), it is likely that many anti-government votes could be cast in this constituency. Still, Lee has a fair shot at winning since Loh and Lim will probably split the opposition votes.

Mohd Rashid, Teluk Kemang

In 2004, MIC’s S Sothinathan scored a decisive victory over his PKR opponent but, this year, some circles speculate that a swing might be afoot. Both a strong PKR candidate – Kamarul Baharin Abbas, a close college friend of Anwar Ibrahim’s – and independent Mohd Rashid will test the MIC incumbent’s over the multi-racial constituency.

With a population that is 41 percent Malay, 36 percent Chinese and 22 percent Indian, the seat is one of the most mixed in the country. With anti-government sentiments running high, especially within the Indian community, Sothinathan faces an uphill battle to retain his position.

Although it is possible that Mohd will earn opposition votes that would have otherwise gone to Kamarul, given his relative anonymity, it is likely that his impact will be minimal.

Unlike other opposition candidates embroiled in three-corner fights, Kamarul is not a political newbie. In 2004, he contested the Batu Caves state seat and narrowly lost to the MIC candidate.

Reports from the area indicate that his prospects are looking up. Members of all three ethnic groups seem hungry for change and even supporters of Sothinathan have expressed concern that opposition ceramahs are drawing large Indian crowds.

State races

V Arumuga, Bukit Selambau

In the only one-on-one race between a BN candidate and an independent, V Arumuga is battling MIC’s S Krishnan for the Bukit Selambau state seat in Kedah.

Moreover, he is attempting to wrest control from the ruling coalition with the support of opposition forces. Since its own candidate was disqualified by the Election Commission on nomination day, PKR has decided to back Arumuga, a former division level PKR leader.

Given his familiarity with the area, local boy Arumugam is getting a positive response from Malay and Chinese voters, as well as from lower and middle-class voters.

Although the MIC candidate in 2004 thumped his DAP and PKR opponents with a sizeable majority of votes, the political climate may be on Arumuga’s side this year.

Since the constituency’s outgoing assemblyman is not returning to defend the seat this year, with the help of PKR, it’s possible that Arumuga could ride the rising wave of anti-government sentiments into office.

R Ulaganathan, Perai

In Perai, because of increasing discontent among Indians who comprise 36 percent of the electorate, votes may swing away from the MIC rookie candidate, L Krishnan. Newcomer DAP challenger P Ramasamy will likely be the recipient of these votes. But it’s possible that independent candidate R Ulaganathan could take gain opposition-inclined support.

Uaganathan was born and raised locally while the other two candidates are outsiders. He was also the former Bandar Prai MIC chairperson for 14 years and is well known for his comunity work in the constituency. He resigned and registered as an independent candidate after finding out that MIC had decided against fielding him. Given his local-boy advantage his presence could impact the outcome of the race.

Azmi Hussain, Batu Caves

Batu Caves is a Malay-majority constituency (62 percent of the population is Malay) but the Indian vote in this area could help decide the outcome.

Indians here were disappointed when the MIC decided to field T Mohan instead of their local choice. And this only enhanced Hindraf-related discontent that preceded the elections.

PKR’s Malay candidate, Amirudin Shari, is expected to attract half of the Malay votes. But independent candidate Azmi Hussain is also Malay and is expected to earn votes from Malays who don’t want to vote for the opposition or the MIC, thereby slimming T Mohan’s chances of victory.