news analysis If you had asked Dr Koh Tsu Koon a year ago whether he is content to remain in state-level politics as Penang chief minister, or if he wants to move up to federal level, he would have said that he will answer when the time is right.

Granted. After all, he had just been made acting Gerakan chief and felt a need to focus on his party role - and more so because he succeeded the charismatic Dr Lim Keng Yaik (photo), who had been at the helm for 26 years.

However, a year on, it appears that Koh’s search for the ‘right time’ continues to be elusive - and the pressure is on for him to make up his mind soon or it could be made up for him.

Tellingly, Lim recently said Koh should contest at state level in the upcoming general election, which is widely tipped to be held in March.

In an interview with theSun last week, Lim argued that there is no hurry for Koh to enter federal-level politics and cited his own experience when he had served an extra term in the Perak state exco after becoming party president in 1981. He backed Koh, a former academician, as the best person to man the Gerakan fortress during the polls.

Secretary-general Chia Kwang Chye then told the media that the party wants Koh to lead Penang and urged the press to stop speculating Lim’s statement.

Still, Koh’s non-committal stance towards leadership is being closely watched in both political and media circles.

“Lim has to publicly exert some pressure on Koh (photo). Lim’s leadership style is so straightforward that he can’t stand anyone who dilly-dallies,” observed a senior writer with a Chinese-language daily.

Those in Koh’s think-tank are said to be persuading him that the time is ripe for him to move into the post of energy, water and communications minister, which Lim will vacate when elections are called. This would also help Koh build grassroots support in other parts of the country.

Some in the state, meanwhile, deem that he has overstayed in his state post. By convention, heads of key component parties in Barisan Nasional (BN) are appointed federal ministers - although Gerakan had bucked the trend in the past when president Lim Chong Eu declined a post.

Penang-based columnist Dr Cheah See Kian wrote in Nanyang Siang Pau recently that it is essential for Koh to move up to ensure completion of the party’s succession plan.

Arguing that Koh could monitor the running of the state from federal level, the columnist criticised Lim’s advice as “wrong” - for good measure, Cheah told Lim not to create a “crisis of talent” in Gerakan.

Tough fight expected

Koh - who is already fighting to step out of Lim’s shadow - is likely to find it tough to decide between his mentor’s advice and his supporters’ wishes.

Nonetheless, it appears that he has little choice but to keep his post. Any decision to appoint a new face would be unwise for BN because opposition parties appear set to pose a challenge in Penang that Koh expects to be “tougher than tough” to withstand.

Gerakan’s main rival, the DAP - which aspires to govern Penang at very least - has formed an electoral pact with opposition allies. It will contest seven of the 13 parliamentary seats and 19 of the 40 seats in Penang.

Gerakan currently holds three parliamentary seats and 13 state seats in of the BN-led state government.

Should the search start for a new chief minister, it will have to overcome the hurdle of consensus within Gerakan. There are ‘four heavenly kings’ ( as they have been dubbed in Cantopop lingo) waiting in the wings - Chia (photo), Lee Kah Choon, Teng Hock Nan and Teng Chang Yeow.

Moving Koh to federal level so close to the general election may also kick up controversy and trigger talks once again on a long-standing Umno demand for a Malay chief minister, say observers.

“Koh’s ability to lead the state is a secondary issue. Like it or not, he is the incumbent. This is an advantage as he can gather the BN forces to face the opposition,” said the senior writer.

Main contenders

So, who will take over Lim’s ministerial post? The contenders have been narrowed down to Chia or party vice-president Chang Ko Youn.

Chia said earlier this week that he is would like to defend his Bukit Bendera parliamentary seat in Penang, thereby ruling out the likelihood that he will contest in Penang or subsequently vie for the chief minister’s post.

“As the incumbent, I am prepared to stand in the constituency again,” Chia explained, also denying the suggestion that his decision is linked to speculation that he is vying to become a full minister. He is now a deputy information minister.

“I will cross that bridge when I come to it,” was all he would concede. An IT-savvy politician, he could fit into the ministerial portfolio now allocated to Gerakan. In this, he has a definite advantage over Chang, a state exco member from Perak and a lawyer by training.

But Chang (photo), the party’s Perak chief, is not without influence himself and could prove to be the black horse. Although from the Hakka clan, he was handpicked by Lim late last year to contest the Beruas parliamentary seat, predominantly made up of Chinese from the Foochow clan. Lim has held the seat since 1986.

Chang could face DAP Perak chief Ngeh Koo Ham or DAP Youth chief Nga Kor Ming - cousins and Foochows. Ngeh had lost to Lim by about 700 votes in the 1990 general election.

And Chang’s chances are improved by sentiments within Gerakan that two top posts - chief minister and cabinet minister - should not go to Penang-based leaders like Koh and Chia.

Lim still has much say over party matters. For instance, he turned up at the central committee meeting last Saturday, although Chang quickly ruled out speculation that this had to do with the choice of candidates.

“Since he is the only minister representing Gerakan in the cabinet, he came to explain matters pertaining to his ministry and the government to us,” Chang claimed.

Asked if harbours ambition for the ministerial post, Chang said with a laugh: “Is it me who is eyeing the post or is it the press (that is seeing things)?”

Getting the post would give Chang and Chia ‘bonus points’ in terms of status, keeping in mind that there will be a challenge for the No 2 contest in the party elections next year.

Heading the energy, water and communications portfolio, which deals with business enterprises, would also be significant in terms of influence - in Malaysia, there is a nexus between political and economic interests.

But all such speculation would be rendered academic if Koh decides against his predecessor’s advice at ‘the right time’.