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The Malacca state polls will be a major test for the BN-Perikatan Nasional alliance, and whether they’ll be willing to make major compromises or struggle for dominance.
BN wants the lion’s share of seats, arguing it should defend the 21 seats it won in the 2021 state election, which would leave PN with just seven seats to contest.
However, BN’s argument is based on a flawed premise.
The Malacca state polls will be a major test for the BN-Perikatan Nasional alliance, and whether they’ll be willing to make major compromises or struggle for dominance.
BN wants the lion’s share of seats, arguing it should defend the 21 seats it won in the 2021 state election, which would leave PN with just seven seats to contest.
However, BN’s argument is based on a flawed premise.
The results of the 2021 election were heavily skewed, as low turnout of 65.8 percent hampered by the Covid-19 pandemic, allowed BN to capitalise on the first-past-the-post election system and win 75 percent of seats with just 38 percent of votes.
But just one year later, during the 15th general election, when turnout surged to 79.8 percent thanks to the voting age being lowered to 18 and automatic voter registration (AVR), BN was wiped out, failing to win a single parliamentary seat.
Instead, PN and Pakatan Harapan divided the state, each winning three parliamentary seats. A previous analysis by Malaysiakini showed that PN’s gains were driven by a groundswell of support among youth voters.
Further, the 13.35 percent difference in turnout translated to a whopping 195,000 extra votes in GE15 due to the increase in voters from Undi18 and AVR.
In terms of vote share during GE15, PN and BN are in close competition at 30.9 and 29.6 percent respectively.
If the voting patterns during GE15 were translated into a state election, it suggests that PN would have won 10 seats, while BN just four, thanks to the first-past-the-post voting system.
The four seats that BN would have won in such a scenario are: Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh’s seat, Merlimau, as well as Asahan, Ayer Molek, and Rim.
Harapan, meanwhile, would have bagged 14 seats in a three-cornered fight. But of these, only four seats had an outright majority exceeding 50 percent, suggesting that a BN-PN pact could swipe another 10 seats from them.
