PKR Congress showdown: Rafizi faces political storm

Summary

• Rafizi will likely lose in his bid to retain the PKR deputy presidency, according to insiders and observers.

• But it could be for the better as it would free the PKR leader from the shackles of his position, which he says has been holding him back from speaking up on important issues.

• The outcome of the congress could have significant implications for PKR's leadership dynamics and future direction.

With the PKR Youth and Women’s congress opening this evening, and voting for the party’s central leadership taking place tomorrow, a key question looms large over the national congress - what will happen to Rafizi Ramli?

The campaign period has ended, and among insiders and observers, the consensus is clear that Rafizi is likely to lose his bid to retain the deputy presidency.

Even his supporters have begun to acknowledge this outcome as almost inevitable, unless party president Anwar Ibrahim unexpectedly and openly endorses him in a dramatic last-minute gesture.

So far, no such signal has come. And in the eyes of some, a Rafizi upset victory would now be seen as a blow to Anwar himself.

This marks a significant shift from just four months ago, when internal discussions emerged about leaving the top two leadership positions uncontested to maintain party stability.

Anwar had appeared to support Rafizi then, saying that the Pandan MP should be given “an easy path”.

But winds shift quickly in PKR, and Nurul Izzah Anwar’s entry into the race has turned the party’s internal dynamics on its head.

The prime minister’s daughter has received a wave of endorsements from senior leaders, with outgoing PKR Youth chief Adam Adli Abdul Halim even likening the momentum she has generated to what Rafizi achieved during previous internal elections.

Before Nurul Izzah came into the picture, there had been calls for Home Minister Saifuddin Nasution Ismail to challenge Rafizi.

However, having lost to Rafizi in 2022 and to Azmin Ali in 2014, Saifuddin was not seen as a capable challenger by the anti-Rafizi camp.

With no viable alternative, they had little choice but to wait - until Nurul Izzah stepped in.

Unlocking shackles?

If Rafizi is defeated, his faction believes he will remain in the party and capitalise on the momentum of his campaign to speak more openly and boldly on key issues.

He previously said that if he fails to defend his position, he will resign as economy minister.

This would free him from having to remain silent on matters he disagrees with, such as the reappointment of Azam Baki as MACC chief, he explained.

“I’m part of the administration, so even if I don’t agree, for example, with Azam being appointed, I can’t say anything as this would be a breach of ethics, as the decision was made by the prime minister. So, I have to shut up,” he said.

Speaking to Malaysiakini, one supporter put it more directly: “If he loses, he will be unlocked. If he remains shackled in the cabinet, there’s no room for him (to speak and act).”

This version of Rafizi - untethered from administrative protocol and no longer muzzled by ministerial etiquette - could become a potent force within and beyond PKR.

Many expect he would use the campaign’s momentum to speak more candidly and reconnect with the grassroots in a way that his ministerial post has constrained.

Throughout the past few weeks, Rafizi has repeatedly issued bold statements and openly questioned the fairness of the party election process.

Positioning himself as "berani mati" (dare to die), he has cast himself as a tragic hero, someone willing to take risks and speak uncomfortable truths, even at the cost of his own political career.

Slim chance of overturning tide

Still, Rafizi has a slim chance of overturning the tide. Under the party’s proportional representation system - used for the first time in this election - a sizeable number of Rafizi-aligned delegates are eligible to vote at the congress.

Each division sends 46 delegates from its main body, youth, and women’s wings, and many of these positions were won by Rafizi’s camp.

READ MORE: PKR election: How division results threaten Rafizi's grip

Even in divisions where Rafizi supporters lost in the divisional chief race, the system allows losing candidates to nominate delegates proportionally to the votes they received, which will enable Rafizi’s faction to maintain a presence among voting delegates.

Some party members also observed that Rafizi’s campaign, offline and online, gained more traction than Nurul Izzah’s.

His ceramah attracted larger crowds, and his online events drew more viewers. Some believe that Rafizi’s public stance of being “ready to lose” may be a form of reverse psychology, designed to win sympathy and support in the final stretch.

Attention will now turn to Anwar’s policy speech tomorrow, just hours before voting begins.

With tensions running high, the party president’s address is expected to set the tone for the day and perhaps signal the direction he hopes the party will take.

Yesterday, Anwar said that while the party polls have nothing to do with a cabinet reshuffle, “we cannot prevent other people’s ambitions (to resign or fill vacancies)”.

In the last party election, Rafizi won decisively, and his faction won most of the positions in the central leadership council, securing three out of the four vice-president posts.

If Rafizi is defeated this time and steps down, there is speculation that other ministers and deputy ministers aligned with him may also resign from their government positions.

For now, the outcome of the contest remains uncertain. But the impact of the result - particularly if Rafizi loses and exits the cabinet - is likely to be felt well beyond the congress floor.

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