The Islamic-based PAS has been ruling Kelantan for the past 17 years. The east coast state, with a population of about 1.4 million, of which 95 percent are Malays, is considered to be the party's bastion.

However, since the last general elections in 2004, the first under Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, things have been anything but rosy for PAS in Kelantan.

The party is currently holding on to power with a single seat majority. Following BN's in in the December 2005 Pengkalan Pasir by-election, PAS now has 23 state seats and BN 22.

The scenario is a far cry from its sterling performance in the previous elections.

In the 1990 polls, PAS swept all 39 state seats. BN made some inroads in the following elections in 1995 by winning seven state assembly seats and two parliamentary seats.

In 1999, BN was crushed once again. It was left with two state seats and a parliament seat. Many had attributed this to the electorate's anger over the sacking of former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim.

The coming elections will decide if BN can finally turn the tables.

According to a Bernama special report, it is an open secret that BN's defeat in Kelantan in the 1990 general elections was due to internal bickering and Umno's splinter party Semangat 46 headed by a former Umno strongman in the state Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah that split the votes.

The effects of the party's internal problem continued until the 1995 general elections, it added.

While the Anwar factor is said to have affected the 1999 polls in favour of PAS, the Abdullah factor is regarded as having done the same for BN in the 2004 elections.

"Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's 'Mr Clean' image was the factor that won the hearts of the Kelantanese who voted for BN," an Umno veteran from Machang, Kamal Che Pa, 72, was quoted as saying.

He added that Abdullah, who took over from his predecessor Dr Mahathir Mohamad in late 2003, also exemplified good Islamic characteristics.

"That is why a big number of Kelantanese voted for BN, which almost defeated PAS," he said.

Umno confident

The report also noted that Umno has pushed itself into overdrive to win back the confidence of the people of Kelantan and to convince them that the party is a better alternative compared to PAS.

Umno, headed by its state liaison chief Annuar Musa, has done 'all that is necessary' to woo the people and the latter is confident that BN will wrest the state assembly mandate from PAS.

"I can see that the momentum for Umno and BN is increasing and there is no reason why we can't unseat PAS this time," Annuar told Bernama.

The report said that BN is banking on the Islam Hadhari approach to win over the people. Islam Hadhari, or civilisational Islam, was mooted by Abdullah.

Umno also took note of Terengganu's 'Blue Wave' campaign that brought down PAS' administration in the state and came up with the 'Kelantan Baru' campaign with the same goal, it added.

If the good attendance in programmes organised by Umno is anything to go by, then BN has a good chance of turning the tide against PAS, noted the report.

However, PAS remains unperturbed. A senior party leader, who was quoted in the report, believes that the party will win more than 40 parliament seats at the expense of BN.

PAS vice-president Husam Musa said his assumption was based on the increasing support for the party because the people had enough with Umno and BN.

Kelantan Menteri Besar and PAS spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat too shared the same optimism.

Nik Aziz argued that there is no reason why the people should reject PAS because the party has done the best for the people and has never betrayed them.

'Umno is weak'

Meanwhile, Kelantan resident Asri Yaakub, 42, told Bernama that he is confident that the people in Kelantan will remain loyal to the Islamic party.

"It's better to support PAS because we the people of Kelantan are getting all that we never enjoyed during BN's rule in Kelantan," said the goldsmith.

On the same note, the report pointed out that the people should be thankful to the federal government that has promised billions of ringgit especially for the East Coast Corridor to be launched by Abdullah.

Presently, it added, there are many projects under the Ninth Malaysia Plan in the implementation stages and visitors to Kelantan would be surprised to see the development there.

Apart from this, the prime minister recently announced the construction of the second bridge across Sungai Kelantan costing RM143 million and is expected to be ready in two years time. A new highway worth billions linking Kota Bahru and Kuala Krai is also on the way.

However, an Umno veteran was also sceptical about the party's chances of capturing Kelantan.

According to Hussein Ahmad, there are many more things that BN must rectify beforehand if it's to win over the people.

"No doubt that Umno has made inroads but it is still not good enough for the party to come into power and no doubt what I'm saying may offend many but this is the reality that Umno has to accept," the former state Umno information chief was quoted as saying.

He claimed that the continuing internal bickering has been a cause of concern for the state Umno.

Hussein also noted that the Kelantanese were looking for 'Mr Clean' to administer their beloved state and BN would receive cold shoulders if it is still hounded by internal problems.

"PAS is not strong but it is actually Umno that is weak," summed up the veteran.