With 8,000-odd voters, Indera Kayangan is one of smallest constituencies in the country. But despite its puny size, the political stakes in this by-election are high. The poll will be a litmus test for the contesting parties, and their allies, to gauge voter sentiments ahead of the upcoming general elections.

MCA, which is leading the charge on behalf of the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, will need to show that it has not lost the Chinese Malaysian support it gained in the 1999 general elections despite the party's acrimonious factional feuds. It must not only win, but win big, and with an even larger majority. That, at least, will be Team A's aim.

For the rival Team B leaders, however, notwithstanding the public show of unity, a setback in this by-election for the party will serve their interest better. After all, they need to prove that a change in leadership is necessary for MCA to continue receiving backing from the Chinese community.

Umno will be going into the election to demonstrate that it has finally stalled the PAS juggernaut up-north and has begun the process of recovering some lost grounds. On the other hand, PAS seeks to prove that the Sept 11 attacks, and its alleged links with Islamic militants, has not dented its support base in the Malay belt.

Reducing the majority

Meanwhile, Keadilan supporters will be looking to the party to repeat its stunning performance in Lunas.

However, victory this time will be extremely difficult, if not impossible. The opposition party needs a swing of some 12.5 percent of those who had previously voted for BN. That's a monumental task. In Lunas, it only required a swing of 5 percent.

More so, it will have to do without its key lieutenants Youth chief Mohd Ezam Mohd Nor and vice-president Tian Chua, both of whom are detained under the Internal Security Act. It will also have to fight a party which is backed by the government's colossal machinery, now a little wiser following BN's disastrous defeat in Lunas.

What is achievable for Keadilan, however, is the slashing of MCA's winning margin.

In the last general elections, while the party picked up a sizable number Malay Malaysian votes, it won over only a handful of the 4,000 registered Chinese Malaysians voters. It can better that score, especially with the help of a number of lobby groups still sore with MCA's takeover of two major Chinese dailies. However, unlike Lunas, former partner DAP will be out on the sidelines.

Indeed, the effect of DAP's decision to stay away from Indera Kayangan will be closely watched by political observers. This decision could ultimately determine the party's future. The question is not so much the fissures within the party over its no-campaigning decision, but Keadilan's ability to garner Chinese votes on its own.

Indeed, a few party leaders have privately conceded that Keadilan posed the major threat to DAP's survival. Keadilan with its formula of a Malay-led multiracial party is attractive to a broad cross-section of Malaysians, especially the younger generation.

If the party can show it can win Chinese Malaysian votes without help from DAP, it will spell doom for the 35-year-old opposition party. Unless, of course, DAP pulls a similar political stunt as it did in Lunas an eleventh-hour decision to join the opposition campaign.

Professional coverage

The media, too, has something to prove in this by-election that in spite of its avowed sympathies for the ruling parties, it could still cover the election professionally.

No doubt, there will be propaganda and counter-propaganda. The government has already launched the first salvo with a short TV clip running down the opposition. Keadilan, without access to the mass media, will have to rely on word-of-mouth and the increasingly rare political ceramah.

There will also be dirty tricks. Over the weekend, the BN nabbed a few students found 'spying' in its operation centre. Keadilan campaigners will no doubt be on the lookout for busloads of BN 'supporters' trucked in from other states for 'last-minute campaigning' on polling day.

In the past, media organisations often abandoned all pretences of even-handedness during elections. Expect the same in Indera Kayangan.

The New Straits Times, with its revamped look and a new motto "All the news that matters", may try to prove otherwise. However, given the government's atrocious track record in clamping down on the media The Sun being the latest victim it won't be long that NST may have to change its tagline.

Perhaps it could try this instead: "All the news they let us print".