The Umno general assembly, seeking direction for the years ahead in a contested political environment, ended three days of aimless discussion in confusion.

No serious issues peculiar to this year's convention was raised, every discussion re-stated past harangues and the party president, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, made it clear he had Umno in his back pocket to insist that members to be in Umno must obey his commands and be loyal to him.

The newspapers took up the refrain, and one newspaper, The Star, headlined it on its front page, as an indirect appeal to those MCA members who question their president Dr Ling Liong Sik's purchase of the Nanyang Press without discussing it first with his advisory bodies, and follow this lead.

The issue of the abrupt resignation of Umno's treasurer of 17 years, three weeks before the general assembly, was not raised at all. More serious issues of draining support by arrogance and fright were ignored and fitfully raised in private conversation. In short, it was Nato - No Action, Talk Only - time.

But if party problems are not aired intellectually and seriously, nothing would change. This belief that if a leader says what the problems are, it would be resolved is too ingrained in the Umno leaders' minds to force a change. The former Umno secretary-general, Mohamed Rahmat, still talks of Malay dominance, when that policy is challenged because Umno could not deliver.

Stage-managed panacea

Mahathir stage-managed the general assembly for 20 years, and he gets better by the year. He brilliantly evaded contemporaneous issues from his leadership, talking of external issues and ignoring the internal. There is no talk of succession. He concedes the eventual successor is Abdullah Ahmad Badawi but it was not firmly stated, only in passing. He does not offer solutions, only what should be done.

Beneath this blazing confidence hides a nagging fear. This was reflected in the excoriating attacks on PAS, hoping this would turn the Malay voter against the Islamic party. PAS was un-Islamic, the gathering was told, because it did not support development. Development, of course, was not defined.

PAS is attacked for its strength in the northern states, with Kedah, Mahathir's home state, drifting away from Umno, and for its brilliant organisation down to the branch level. Umno leaders said it was proof of PAS' perfidy that Umno is challenged in these parts. The blame is on the other fellow, not on its own arrogance and assumptions.

So, it was not surprising that Mahathir told the press 'that if we are not wanted, we could lose in 2004'. Umno Youth plans to tighten its organisation in the branches, Wanita attempts to come closer to Puteri Umno, which attracts more professional women to its ranks than Wanita does, Umno orders all to be prepared for the PAS and Opposition onslaught against its Malay hegemony.

Scripted lethargy

But talk alone cannot turn Umno from a tired, listless party living on its laurels into a shrewd, political party seeking lost ground. Umno suffers from a leader, out of touch with the younger Malays, who stayed on too long and refuses to budge. But it does not care or dare to put things right.

It is not the party of one man, whose word is law, and who would stay on in power at whatever cost. His speeches at the Umno general assembly said as much. But his calls for initiative cannot be taken seriously since he believes support for him and his administration must be by unthinking robots. Initiative is not possible if it is not encouraged. Scripting responses as a sign of initiative is ipso facto a paradox.

So, while the Umno general assembly was widely reported, little of substance emerged from the debates. Mahathir poured scorn on the Chinese and Chinese newspapers for his government's problems, which he implied was sufficient reason for the MCA to commit seppuku.

He did not tell the MCA what to do, of course, but the Opposition is firming the opposition to the purchase of Nanyang Press. Besides, Nanyang Press should be in MCA hands because its reports on the Lunas by-election last year lured voters to the Opposition side.

He would not reveal the state secret that MCA, like Umno, is no match for a vibrant and revitalised Opposition prepared to push political confrontation to the edge of the precipice. The ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, not used to the Opposition using its tactics, could not overcome it.

Mahathir raises the race issue, accusing the Chinese of not backing the MCA and demanding what they should not. He also blames the Malays for demanding what they should not. He wants Malaysians to let Umno and BN decide what they deserve, and be grateful to receive it.

He raises the curious argument that two states were lost because the Malays were not loyal to the Umno president. Umno members must accept the president's dicta, whether it be the appointment of councillors or candidates. This would have worked 20 years ago, but not now. Midnight's children, 45 years on, are ignored in the party's high councils. Their children come into the workplace.

Democratic autocrat

But their right to a place is subjected to an autocratic governance that makes nonsense of every speech the Umno president and Malaysian prime minister has made in two decades. He has no plans to change this format of general assemblies automatically putting him on a pedestal.

One comes away at the end of the three-day general assembly in trepidation and fear. The years ahead would be rocky. Mahathir does not tolerate the growing opposition to his governance, nor understand the jailed former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim phenomena that sparked off youthful opposition to the status quo, and take matters into his own hands.

He already shows signs of that; his reaction to the MCA purchase of the Nanyang Press, for instance, and his increasing tetchiness at what he wants eluding him because the Opposition is too strong to allow him to. His next years would attract more opposition. He clearly wants the press to be beholden to him, and I foresee him acting against those in the media who would not accept his simplistic solutions for a complex world.

Crying wolf

I am told I cry wolf too often. Perhaps I do. But in 1987, when Malay unity was challenged, 'Operation Lallang' detained 107 Malaysians under the ISA. Eleven years later, when Anwar, sacked from Umno and the government, revolted, Mahathir cracked down hard. And again last month. More must follow, the more he is challenged. The ISA is used more routinely outside these specific occasions which he thought challenged his rule.

A crisis faces Malaysia, one which would become worse the longer Mahathir remains in office. He is isolated in his own party. The abrupt resignation of Daim Zainuddin as Cabinet minister and Umno treasurer makes him more so. He has no trusted friends in the Cabinet, which is as moribund as it can be, and he compounds that further to refuse to reshuffle it.

He is more frightened of a ground revolt if he did than to have a Cabinet that can address what ails the country. If nothing else, this became clear when the curtain descended on the Umno general assembly last night.