If Umno is in the dumps it is now, the annual general assembly which began yesterday is the last place to show it. The presidential speech, a few minutes short of two hours, regurgitated his past annual perorations, selling snake oil to quiet, brooding, disbelieving delegates.

This assembly would have put Umno president Dr Mahathir Mohamed in a spot, but he brilliantly sidestepped it by diverting attention to the resignation of the Umno treasurer, Daim Zainuddin, from all his party and official posts.

He offered himself as the only man who could protect Umno from political predators, reformasi rascals, and the mistrusted colonial PAS.

It was as always a bravura performance. But it was showmanship; not an attempt to put Umno back on course. The snake oil panacea is buttressed by the debate reduced to jokes and minor squiggles when it should have addressed what ails Malay society.

Speakers as always are chosen for their ability to keep the delegates entertained and push the official line. Any who has a contrary view would not ever have a chance to air it in the general assembly.

Form and political health

The form as always is more than important than the substance. It was, for instance, enough that Daim had resigned from the Umno treasury. No one asked why he is not here to answer questions about it since he held the post for 17 years until three weeks before the general assembly.

Since Mahathir is also Finance minister, no one is about to ask him impertinent questions that would be injurious to his political health.

Walking around the Putra World Trade Centre (PWTC) corridors, I noticed what I had not noticed in previous years. It is not obvious but it hit me unexpectedly as I observed the crowd gathered in front of a huge television screen which relayed a live telecast of the speeches inside.

Most were from the small towns and villages, looking at the screen in awe more than listening to what was said. The telecast for them was like a pacifier to a child.

Mahathir spoke of global economy and political concepts and much went above their heads. What these people were most concerned about was the price of rice and fish, and their frustrations in getting a small piece of paper from the government, be it a licence, an application form, whatever.

But they are dazzled by the electronic and digital imagery of modernity. What we do not know is what they think. Umno did not know how seriously it was out of touch until crowds gathered around its deputy president after he was sacked in 1998.

That divide remains, indeed widens with national concerns restricted to its relations with the outside world, and the isolation that is inherent with the move to Putrajaya, the new administrative octopus in the making 35 km from Kuala Lumpur.

Since 70 percent of Umno members are from the rural areas, and this digital divide widens, little of their concerns and doubts are addressed, the leading talking of filet mignon at lunch and the listeners of nasi bungkus.

One sure way to decode how serious this divide is when the leaders take on outside issues - Palestine, globalisation, PAS president meeting the Australian foreign minister, riots in Jakarta - instead of issues closer to home to show they do a good job.

Both Mahathir and Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who spoke at the Youth and Women wings' convention, followed this script.

Computers and nasi lemak

As usual, the path to the auditorium is filled with a bazaar selling everything from computer systems to nasi lemak. It is Umno's acceptance that the Malay world, despite all its modernity and power, is built upon a community of self-assured independent entrepreneurs, be they fishermen, shopkeepers or padi farmers.

But this is only given scant attention in the government Umno leads. Development is to make the city's capital and towns clones of first world cities. It is a fact, as in Africa, modernity in the cities and towns survive on resources taken away from the rural areas.

This is more glaring in Malaysia since, compared to Africa, we have always had a better standard of living. That widens, along with the clash between modernity and the rural cultural world.

The criticism outside the debate is sharp and prickly, even when it is from those who benefitted the most under the Mahathir regency. The economy is moribund, however rosy the official statistics. People lose jobs so regularly that it is becoming a social problem.

In just one month, in May, Singapore sacked 12,000 Malaysians and Penang electronic and other companies another 8,000. This is dismissed of no consequence, but when you add the retrenchments of the small companies that take place relentlessly by the week, it adds to a serious problem in the months ahead.

Clever and subdued

But Mahathir painted a rosy picture of how well Malaysia does. He is more interested in remaining in office. And justifies why he should.

He uses all the power in his control to ensure it. He believes Umno will prosper well under his command, and he should be given the tools and support for it.

There is no talk of who would succeed him. He is there for the long haul. Abdullah Badawi is the man who should, but Umno, in the state he is in, looks to someone else. Mahathir keeps his counsel, as other dauphins-to-be flex their muscles.

Palace intrigues, Umno is bluntly told, not party counsels, would determine who succeeds Mahathir. It is not a view widely accepted amongst the Umno rank and file.

The mood however is different. His speech was received more subdued than it was for a long time. In November, when Umno had an extraordinary general meeting to amend the constitution, it was before a disbelieving silent gathering who would not even clap to Mahathir's more clever remarks that he had to ask them to.

This time, the mood was better, but it was more subdued than he would have liked.

Like in every general assembly since Anwar Ibrahim's humiliation, he has faced a similar crowd. The Umno Malay waits to see what happens, wants Mahathir to prove his credentials every time, and goes away unconvinced.

The quieter the Malay is, the more dangerous he becomes. Amok after all is a Malay word.

Which is why Mahathir and Abdullah Badawi plead and cajole more than hector, to give them another chance than for doing the right thing. The Malay dilemma, as he himself admits, is alive and well.

But he is at the centre of it now but refuses to acknowledge it. It is no more between the haves and have-nots, or Malay poverty and hopelessness, but the widening chasm between Malay governance and Malay culture.

If anything, Mahathir emphasised that more clearly yesterday than he ever has.