COMMENT | GE15 ethnic voting analysis - Part 2: Who voted?

COMMENT | Last December, PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang made the unfounded claim that Chinese turnout was higher than Malay turnout due to Malays being away on the haj. My analysis of ethnic voting behaviour in the 15th general election (GE15) found otherwise.

This second piece analyses voter turnout through an ethnic lens with a focus on Peninsular Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak will be covered in separate pieces).

Beyond the numbers across communities, the findings suggest that turnout varied across Malaysia and shaped electoral outcomes, generally boosting Perikatan Nasional (PN)’s fortunes while undercutting those of Pakatan Harapan and Umno.

In fact, contrary to the incorrect Hadi narrative, higher Malay turnout improved PN’s chances.

At the same time, comparatively lower Chinese turnout reduced the chances of Harapan candidates, although often it was not turnout alone that impacted the final results in most of this coalition’s losses.

For all the major coalitions, ethnic swings in support...