Brilliant, but can Mahathir pull it off?
MGG PillaiPublished: Jan 10, 2001 7:36 AM | Updated: Jan 29, 2008 6:21 PM
Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad proposed Malay unity talks with PAS and Keadilan with brilliant tactical precision.
The Barisan Nasional government, especially Umno, is buffetted in a heavy political storm and put through its paces by the racial confrontation caused by the Suqiu proposals, the fallout from the Lunas by-election, the MAS bailout and shifting Malay support.
Until a fortnight ago.
Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad proposed Malay unity talks with PAS and Keadilan with brilliant tactical precision.
The Barisan Nasional government, especially Umno, is buffetted in a heavy political storm and put through its paces by the racial confrontation caused by the Suqiu proposals, the fallout from the Lunas by-election, the MAS bailout and shifting Malay support.
Until a fortnight ago.
Then he invites the two parties for talks and seizes the high moral ground. Umno is now seen as looking into the future, its problems swept under the proverbial carpet. Keadilan refuses to take part, and PAS only if issues wider than Malay unity are on the agenda. The Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM) and the Democratic Action Party (DAP) are skeptical.
But the good doctor has made his point, at least in the short term and in the public eye: the opposition is bedraggled in reaching agreement. Umno and its partners in BN are wedded to it as a recipe for national unity. Mahathir succeeded with such manouevre every time in the past, with the opposition licking its wounds at the brilliant tactical display.
Would it work this time? The Malay opposition to him rises by the day that he wants to call it a day. He does not think - and this is not him alone - the deputy prime minister, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, can contain the political floodgates which would open when he leaves. He needs to be succeeded by one who can unite Umno and the Malays. He does not want to go down in history as one who destroyed Umno twice - in 1987 and now.
Flavour of the month
It is Umno, more than Malay, unity at stake. Two-thirds of the Malays broadly supported Umno and the BN once and one-third the opposition. The Anwar Ibrahim affair changed that, and reflected it in the 1999 general elections, when Umno and the BN lost ground in almost every Malay-majority constituency, besides losing two Malay-dominant states, Kelantan and Terengganu. And this despite being returned in the centre with a four-fifths majority.
Every attempt to wean the Malay ground since failed. The Suqiu affair exploded in its face, for it was Umno which made an issue of the Suqiu proposals, before the Sanggang by-election in Pahang last year, to have the Malays unite behind it. The debate between the Umno and PAS youth chiefs is sidelined. The Malay unity talks is the flavour of the month.
But the Malays are united - not under Umno, but with the opposition. The contrasting views amongst opposition political parties reflect vigorous debate not that it does not seek a common ground.
The two principal issues - Anwar Ibrahim in prison and Kuala Lumpur's refusal to disburse the petroleum royalties due to Terengganu - have to be resolved. In both, the only option for Umno is to concede. That dilemma the unity talks cannot resolve for Umno.
Keadilan's rejection makes the telling point that the Malay ground is united, though not under Umno. It should have insisted its representative be its eminence grise, Anwar Ibrahim, the former deputy prime minister jailed for sodomy and corruption for a total of 15 years.
Eminence grise in waiting
It is Umno, more than Malay, unity Mahathir wants the talks to strengthen. Umno is in disarray, its political reach circumscribed by the opposition. Without Keadilan, Umno-PAS agreement would count for little.
Even if the PAS president Fadzil Noor insists upon Anwar's release as an inviolate condition for it to move forward. Keadilan also could not, as a multiracial party, align itself with talks that strengthen one, albeit the most important, community.
This is where Mahathir's tactical brilliance fails him. He is shocked and surprised at how the Anwar affair consumes him politically, physically, mentally, strategically and tactically.
If it is Malay unity he wants, he should have discussed this with the political leaders privately and jointly call for the talks. In any case, Malay unity can only now be discussed in the context of how this would impinge upon non-Malay rights. For this, the non-Malays must be brought in.
This Umno forgets. The grandchildren of independence now reach maturity, their hopes and aspirations not their fathers' or grandfathers'. Umno stood still, especially in the last two decades. And pays the price.
The Malay unity talks, if held, begins with Umno defensive. It has to make concessions. Any it makes strengthens Keadilan without being present. An unwritten agenda in the unity talks is to sideline Keadilan. But could that sustain if another in that is the immediate release of its eminence grise?
The Barisan Nasional government, especially Umno, is buffetted in a heavy political storm and put through its paces by the racial confrontation caused by the Suqiu proposals, the fallout from the Lunas by-election, the MAS bailout and shifting Malay support.
Until a fortnight ago.
Then he invites the two parties for talks and seizes the high moral ground. Umno is now seen as looking into the future, its problems swept under the proverbial carpet. Keadilan refuses to take part, and PAS only if issues wider than Malay unity are on the agenda. The Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM) and the Democratic Action Party (DAP) are skeptical.
But the good doctor has made his point, at least in the short term and in the public eye: the opposition is bedraggled in reaching agreement. Umno and its partners in BN are wedded to it as a recipe for national unity. Mahathir succeeded with such manouevre every time in the past, with the opposition licking its wounds at the brilliant tactical display.
Would it work this time? The Malay opposition to him rises by the day that he wants to call it a day. He does not think - and this is not him alone - the deputy prime minister, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, can contain the political floodgates which would open when he leaves. He needs to be succeeded by one who can unite Umno and the Malays. He does not want to go down in history as one who destroyed Umno twice - in 1987 and now.
Flavour of the month
It is Umno, more than Malay, unity at stake. Two-thirds of the Malays broadly supported Umno and the BN once and one-third the opposition. The Anwar Ibrahim affair changed that, and reflected it in the 1999 general elections, when Umno and the BN lost ground in almost every Malay-majority constituency, besides losing two Malay-dominant states, Kelantan and Terengganu. And this despite being returned in the centre with a four-fifths majority.
Every attempt to wean the Malay ground since failed. The Suqiu affair exploded in its face, for it was Umno which made an issue of the Suqiu proposals, before the Sanggang by-election in Pahang last year, to have the Malays unite behind it. The debate between the Umno and PAS youth chiefs is sidelined. The Malay unity talks is the flavour of the month.
But the Malays are united - not under Umno, but with the opposition. The contrasting views amongst opposition political parties reflect vigorous debate not that it does not seek a common ground.
The two principal issues - Anwar Ibrahim in prison and Kuala Lumpur's refusal to disburse the petroleum royalties due to Terengganu - have to be resolved. In both, the only option for Umno is to concede. That dilemma the unity talks cannot resolve for Umno.
Keadilan's rejection makes the telling point that the Malay ground is united, though not under Umno. It should have insisted its representative be its eminence grise, Anwar Ibrahim, the former deputy prime minister jailed for sodomy and corruption for a total of 15 years.
Eminence grise in waiting
It is Umno, more than Malay, unity Mahathir wants the talks to strengthen. Umno is in disarray, its political reach circumscribed by the opposition. Without Keadilan, Umno-PAS agreement would count for little.
Even if the PAS president Fadzil Noor insists upon Anwar's release as an inviolate condition for it to move forward. Keadilan also could not, as a multiracial party, align itself with talks that strengthen one, albeit the most important, community.
If it is Malay unity he wants, he should have discussed this with the political leaders privately and jointly call for the talks. In any case, Malay unity can only now be discussed in the context of how this would impinge upon non-Malay rights. For this, the non-Malays must be brought in.
This Umno forgets. The grandchildren of independence now reach maturity, their hopes and aspirations not their fathers' or grandfathers'. Umno stood still, especially in the last two decades. And pays the price.
The Malay unity talks, if held, begins with Umno defensive. It has to make concessions. Any it makes strengthens Keadilan without being present. An unwritten agenda in the unity talks is to sideline Keadilan. But could that sustain if another in that is the immediate release of its eminence grise?
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