(IPS) feature A year after she was swept into power in a popular uprising, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo says that country is now sailing ''in calmer waters'', but acknowledged that ''much work needs to be done''.

When she assumed the presidency from Joseph Estrada, who was ousted on Jan 20 last year, Arroyo said the country had been like a boat riddled with many holes, struggling to stay afloat. She was not exaggerating.

Toward the end of Estrada 's term, the Philippine economy was devastated, resulting largely from political instability. Inflation and interest rates skyrocketed, the peso depreciated almost 200 percent, the budget deficit ballooned, and investor confidence hit an all-time low.

These took place against the backdrop of allegations that Estrada — who is now in jail but whose prosecution has been dragging on — had been accepting millions of dollars in pay-offs from illegal gambling. He was subsequently impeached by Congress.

Since that time, Arroyo has not had an easy time either — Filipinos had high expectations of change under her government but these are not coming soon enough.

Reason to be smug

Indeed, Arroyo's approval ratings dropped six percentage points from 63 percent in October to 57 percent in December, based on polls conducted by the Pulse Asia, Inc. But although she is not the most charismatic leader around, she has reason to be smug.

An economist by profession, Arroyo has managed to keep the Philippine economy afloat despite a global economic downturn worsened by the Sept 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

Despite an unstable peace and order situation marked violent protests by Estrada supporters early on, kidnappings from both Muslim rebel groups in the South and kidnap-for-ransom syndicates in the metropolis, the economy registered 3 percent growth for 2001, managed to contain its budget deficit and reduced inflation to 3.9 percent.

''I have brought political stability and global relevance. Mymicroeconomic policies are paying off: peso stability, low inflation, job creation. From an 11 percent unemployment rate a year ago, the latest unemployment figure has gone down to 9.8 percent,'' Arroyo told foreign correspondents last week.

While Estrada can still count on some support from his mass base, the growing consensus has been that Arroyo is much better suited for the job as chief executive to 75 million Filipinos.

''She is a much more organised leader,'' wrote political analyst and columnist Amando Doronila. ''The president is far from being a charismatic leader, but she knows her economics and is politically pragmatic, a stark contrast to deposed President Joseph Estrada, (who) was all charisma and nothing else, and look where he sent the nation.''

''There's no comparison with the previous president,'' said Bobby Francia, president of the Federation of Filipino Businessmen. ''She is more focused, more knowledgeable.''

Wilhelmina Peralta, an insurance sales manager, said of Arroyo: ''She works very hard. She's not like Estrada who spent his time gambling, drinking and womanising.''

Still, as Doronila notes, the general impression, especially among the elite and the urban middle class, is that Arroyo ''is not pulling the nation ahead as much as expected, given her ample intellectual endowments''.

Unable to meet goals

Doronila notes that she has been unable to meet many of her goals and targets, especially in poverty alleviation. There is also a perception that she is more interested in preparing for the presidential elections in 2004.

''The uncertainties of the current economic environment leave no room for electioneering,'' former finance Secretary Roberto de Ocampo said in the weekly magazine Newsbreak.

An economic slowdown in the United States and Japan has pulled down the country's exports by 11.3 percent in the first months of last year. Electronic exports, which make up more than half the total, fell by 19.3 percent. Investors are cautious about putting money in risky emerging markets like the Philippines.

Peace and order, however, remains Arroyo's biggest headache. ''The kidnappings are really scaring people away,'' explained industrialistDonald Dee.

In her New Year's Eve address, she stressed that her priority was to ''root out terrorism, work with the international community, return the reputation of Manila and the Philippines as a welcoming and safe place in which to live and do business''.

Anti-crime activist Teresita Ang-See said, ''We look forward to a better year, but it will take time to recover.''

Kidnappings and insurgency

See said that 2001 was ''the worst (in kidnappings) we have seen in the eight years we have been involved in the anti-kidnapping campaign''. By mid-November, she said, some150 people had fallen victim to kidnapping, more than double the previous year's 73.

Arroyo's economic programme is also set back by the insurgency by Filipino Muslim groups in the South. Aside from the Abu Sayyaf bandits who seized 20 tourists and workers in an upscale resort last week and who are still holding two American hostages, she has to deal with former Muslim rebel turned politician Nur Misuari.

Misuari, unseated as governor of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) in recently concluded elections, is now in detention after his followers tried to stage a rebellion in November.

Arroyo's response has been to enlist the support of the United States, capitalising on its anti-terrorist crusade. She has drawn flak for her decision to provide all-out support for the US ''war on terror'' and for calling in the Americans to fight a local insurgency.

At least two dozen US ''military advisers'' have been in and out of Mindanao since November. ''These advisers are preparing the groundwork for the entry of more than 100 US troops who are expected to join Filipino troops in the frontline in Basilan,'' said political analyst Randolph David.

Local war

He says that while Pentagon officials say US forces will not go into actual combat, ''it is the first time since the 1950s that American military advisers are being allowed to take part in managing a local war in the Philippines''.

In his column for the English-language daily Philippine Daily Inquirer, David added, ''The deployment of US troops represents to me a reversal of the 1991 paradigm shift (in bilateral ties). It is worth asking if we are being quietly led back to an era of presidents handpicked by America.''

Meantime, Arroyo has tough assignments ahead. She has set a target of reducing poverty from 35 percent to 28 percent by 2004. At the same time, she has to fight off those out to undermine her chances for election in 2004.

In short, Arroyo has to convince Filipinos that she is still their best option. This is not going to be easy, according to Doronila. ''She really has no social political base, least of all the poorer classes, and yet she has not captured the urban elite's imagination and support. This failure to establish her social constituency spells trouble for her in 2004.''

Doronila adds that Arroyo has to convince impatient Filipinos that ''democracy is less about roller-coaster change or populism in constant motion in the streets and more about predictability, stability and institution-building''.