analysis As campaign missiles continue to pound Indera Kayangan on the eve of the by-election, it appears the ensuing battle is between issues and perception. And in the crosshairs of both parties are Chinese voters.

Many may assume that Chinese issues and interests are dominating the campaign agenda because of the candidates fielded - Barisan Nasional's Oui Ah Lan and Keadilan's Khoo Yang Chong.

But this may not be the case.

The choice of candidates and the campaign agenda focussing on Chinese interests is more likely to do with the statistics of the community's voting pattern in the 1999 general election.

Though Malays make up some 47 percent of the electorate, MCA and Keadilan are aware that it was the Chinese who were instrumental behind former BN state assemblymen, the late Khor Liang Tee's victory in the last general election.

Chinese voters make up 46 percent of the electorate.

Indera Kayangan, a constituency with 7,976 voters, is divided into seven parts.

The three largest parts according to number of voters are Pekan Baru Kangar (2,117 voters), Seberang Bakau (1,938), and Pekan Lama Kangar (1,327).

Of these three, two are predominantly Chinese areas - Pekan Baru Kangar (71 percent) and Pekan Lama Kangar (84.4 percent).

Both these areas, in the last general election, contributed 1,157 votes out of the 1,974 majority scored by MCA's Khor.

Ironically, Seberang Bakau where its 1,938 population is predominantly Malay (92.62 percent) turned out to be the only area where the then Keadilan candidate Ko Chu Liang won over Khor with a slim majority of 72 votes.

'Green-hat devil'

Meanwhile, for this by-election - apart from the tried-and-tested formula of 'unity, harmony, and stability' which had done Barisan Nasional well - BN leaders have also spoken in unison to discredit Keadilan in a two-fold approach.

The first was targeted at PAS the largest Muslim opposition party which was said to be manoeuvring Keadilan to pursue its 'extreme' Islamic agenda to set up a Taliban-like government.

Gerakan president Dr Lim Keng Yaik openly labelled PAS as the "green-hat devil". While MCA president Dr Ling Liong Sik said a vote for Keadilan is a vote for PAS who is "learning from the Taliban to curb women's rights and destroy ancient Buddha statues".

The move to amplify the existing fear within the Chinese community about PAS is not something new. It dates back to the 1980s at the height of the Iranian Islamic movement led by the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

The second: MCA leaders also told people that Keadilan was set up to defend one man jailed politician Anwar Ibrahim, and not the Chinese race.

Anwar was also blamed for the 1987 Operasi Lalang which witnessed the arrests of over 100 opposition leaders, Chinese educationists, and non-governmental activists under the Internal Security Act.

MCA also kept reminding the voters that it was Anwar, during his tenure as education minister, who appointed non-Mandarin speaking Chinese into high administrative posts in Chinese primary schools and thus started the crisis.

In short, BN is drumming the notion into the heads of the voters that the by-election means more than one state seat.

It defines their votes as a reflection of their choice between a moderate government formed by BN or a theocratic/fanatical government represented by PAS which is said to be controlling Keadilan.

"The whole world is watching to see whether we want a moderate or a fanatical government" is what BN constantly tells the people, and the post-Sept 11 era has given the ruling coalition the leeway to say just that.

Chinese issues

On the contrary, Keadilan is challenging BN based on controversial issues affecting the Chinese community's interests, namely mother-tongue education.

MCA at large was accused of incompetency for failing to highlight the plight of Chinese school-goers and educationists.

Short of calling MCA a "traitor", the Chinese-based party was criticised as weak and chided for not having the courage to resist the government's education policy of abolishing all Chinese and Tamil schools in the long run.

Also present to support Keadilan's arguments, were lobby groups such as the SJK(C) Damansara Save Our School (SOS) Committee which is fighting for the re-opening of the old site of their school which was relocated early last year.

All these groups and prominent Chinese educationists have demanded explanations as to why MCA ministers and officials in the government were silent about "the diminishing Chinese interests".

They also claimed that the Vision School a government proposal to place vernacular schools of different mediums each in one shared compound was to loosen up the Chinese community's defence of their mother-tongue education.

Apart from these issues, MCA chief Ling was also singled out and criticised by the opposition.

Ling was accused of taking over two Chinese newspapers for self-interest despite strong public protests.

The veteran politician was also lambasted for supporting Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's declaration last year that Malaysia was already an Islamic state.

An indicator

In view of the campaign by both parties, tomorrow's polling results will indicate whether Chinese voters have swayed towards the opposition because of these issues or remain in support of BN over the perception that Keadilan is a proxy of PAS.

However, pundits predict that MCA will score a majority with reduced Chinese votes. But they also believe the loss could be compensated with an increase in Malay votes as Keadilan hardly has any footing in Perlis and is relying on PAS to garner support.

In recent months, PAS sympathisers and supporters in Perlis had somehow felt that their pro-Islamisation, Malaysian Muslim Youth Movement (Abim) faction within Keadilan had been victimised and thus may be reluctant to show support for a Keadilan candidate.

The defection of some 300 pro-Abim members to Umno, notably Perlis election campaign director Mej (Rtd) Mohd Shariff Abd Razak and state Youth deputy chief Syed Aranini Syed Ahmad, since last weekend also dealt a blow to the assistance PAS is giving Keadilan.

And at the end of the day, let us not forget that the outcome of any election would be largely determined by party machineries, coherence and financial strength.