Technically, the Batu Talam state assembly seat by-election in Pahang is a contest between the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) and an 'independent' candidate.

For formal purposes, there are campaigns on the part of BN and independent candidate Ng Chee Pang.

However, it has been a foregone conclusion from nomination day that BN will win and the only variables to be observed are the voter turnout, number, percentage and meanings of spoilt votes and whether Ng would retain his deposit.

Given the predictable sure-win outcome for BN, a question arises as to why the ruling coalition seems to still spend a disproportionately large amount of resources and energy for campaigning.
One obvious answer is that the campaigning resources on the part of BN had been committed even before nomination day on the assumption or calculation that a credible challenge would be mounted by PAS.

Theoretically, the subsequent decision of PAS and other opposition parties not to contest the seat could have caused BN to re-assess and review the level and quantum of its commitment of resources.

But, in the real-life politics of the electoral machinery of BN, any reassessment or review of its commitment of electoral resources would only cause destabilisation or demoralizing effects among its own rank and file at the local level because campaigning for the ruling parties has long been known to be a profit-generating businesses and income-earning jobs.

The frustration could have instantly led to a swing of votes as an expression of dissatisfaction because many local BN campaigners and their managers are also voters themselves.

Moral victory

In other words, a large portion of the resources purportedly committed to fighting off 'the enemy' is, in fact, economic means to ensure that the local rank and file of BN would support its own official candidate with their ballots.

Of course, any spending, even for electoral campaigning, has its spin-off and trickle-down effects on the local community of voters who are non-partisan.

An equally, if not more, important answer is that, given the sure-win outcome of the by-election, BN still has to ensure that voter turnout is not abnormally low and the number and percentage of spoilt votes are not extraordinarily high for the major opposition parties like PAS and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) to claim moral victory for the decision to boycott the by-election.

An abnormally low voter turnout and/or extraordinarily high number and percentage of spoilt votes in a BN stronghold under a sure-win circumstance can certainly be construed or interpreted as a sign of passive protest.

In other words, BN has to win not only legally but also legitimately in the Batu Talam by-election so that its image is not adversely affected to its detriment in the coming general elections.