Conventionally, the ruling coalition's propaganda machinery wastes no time in clearly indicating that they do not like opposition parties contesting or challenging its rule in general or by-elections.

They would particularly criticise opposition parties for fielding kucing kurap candidates in the strongholds of the Barisan Nasional where there is no chance of winning at all.

In such circumstance, the opposition is usually accused of 'wasting' its own time and money and also of the people although the former usually resorts by arguing that winning or losing a seat or two is not the alpha and omega of its electoral strategy because it is also vital to seize the opportunity to send important and pressing messages.

However, the impending Batu Talam by-election in Pahang is truly unorthodox because now the opposition is attacked by the other side of the political divide for having decided not to field any candidate. The decision to boycott the Batu Talam by-election is made by PAS and supported by PKR and DAP.

According to one line of the ruling coalition's attack, the 'real' reason the opposition has decided to boycott the Batu Talam by-election is because the latter knows for sure that it would lose in the Umno stronghold in Pahang.

Indeed, the chance of the opposition winning the by-election is admittedly slim but to suggest that it is solely for the fear of losing that the opposition has decided not to contest is also questionable because losing by-elections is not new to the opposition.

Unlike the general elections when the resources of the ruling coalition is spread wide and thin all over the country, a by-election usually see the almost total and decisive concentration of the might of the ruling parties in terms of economic resources, manpower and propaganda machinery on one focused point of contest.

The opposition has usually been no match for the BN in by-elections unless there is also a extraordinary development such as the Suqiu controversy at the time of the Lunas by-election in 2000.

Sending a signal

Despite the odds typically staked against the opposition in by-elections, contests have been going on for many years.

Even if PAS was defeated nationally in the 1986 general elections with only one parliamentary seat remained intact, the party survived and struck back in subsequent contests. DAP, too, has been losing many by-elections since its inception in 1966 and it is still alive and kicking.

Even for PKR which was only inaugurated in 1999, it is still around despite the prophets of doom which 'predicted' that it could not last long.

However, an observation made on the side of the ruling coalition seems to be right: knowing that it would not win the by-election, the opposition is boycotting it so as to preserve the morale of their ranks and files as well as economic resources until the coming general election when it is expected to fare much better for two reasons:

First, in general elections, the ruling coalition cannot decisively concentrate its economic resources, manpower and propaganda firepower at one point;

Second, if the national trend, which is widely perceived and felt to be negative for the BN, continues, an opposition defeat at a local by-election would send the distorting and demoralizing signal.

Of course, the opposition now argues that its reason of boycotting the Batu Talam by-election is to press for reform of the electoral system and process where many irregularities are said to be in existence to the detriment of the real ideal of democracy.

Hitting two targets

Certainly, given the unexpected or unconventional decision to boycott the by-election, popular interest has been aroused and the opposition thinks it presents a favourable moment or opportunity to press for its case of electoral reform and highlight what it sees as the many irregularities, while preserving its strength for the general elections.

In other words, the opposition is trying and hoping to kill two birds with one stone.

Whatever the substantive arguments in favour or otherwise of the boycott of the Batu Talam by-election, the opposition seems to have succeeded, even at the present moment, in showing that the ruling coalition is 'inconsistent' or 'self-contradictory'.

It is also winning the foundational or preliminary debate that it is important for opposition parties to contest in elections to make the democratic process meaningful and legitimate.

Opposition supporters now ask: if the ruling coalition does not like the opposition or considers it to be 'obstructionist', then why it is now being attacked for not contesting in the by-election and clearing the 'obstacle' for the BN to win without having to confront the 'trouble-maker'?

Indeed, the ruling coalition and its propaganda machinery are now caught in an obvious and serious contradiction by opposition's strategists.