(IPS) feature The Philippines opened the year inauspiciously, to say the least, with rumours of a coup brewing against the government of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as it marks in January the first year of its installation after a popular uprising.

Indeed, reports of traditional New Year's Eve revelry and injuries from the use of firecrackers — usually the big news item at the start of the year — were eclipsed by the murder of a self-styled ex-army captain who had persistently warned that a coup against the government was in the offing.

The ex-military captain, Baron Cervantes, had a murky background that is now the subject of much speculation, but he was known as an informant for the national security adviser Roilo Golez.

A day earlier, a senior Navy lieutenant was arrested for possession of a huge cache of explosives.

Speculation

The media was quick to react with speculation from these events, asking if a destabilisation plot might have been in the works

After all, some newspapers pointed out, the arrested military officer, Lt Senior Grade Donn Anthony Miraflor formerly headed an elite unit attached to the Presidential Anti-Organised Crime Task Force, once headed by a known ally of deposed President Joseph Estrada.

They also asked what Miraflor was doing with explosives that authorities say were enough to flatten all military service installations and several tall buildings.

The military establishment was quick to quash reports of a coup in this country of 80 million people in the wake of these events, but that is not easy to do in a country where seven coup attempts in the 1980s — three of them bloody — have not receded from memory.

For instance, the government of former President Corazon Aquino — which took power after the 1986 popular uprising that booted out the dictator Ferdinand Marcos — was plagued by destabilisation efforts at the hands of young military adventurists belonging to a group that called itself the Reform the Armed Forces Movement (RAM).

The political situation is ''too murky'' to read, according to leftist leader Satur Ocampo, representative to Congress of the party list group Bayan Muna (Country First).

Fragile stability

But coup or no coup, Ocampo says he agrees with former President Fidel Ramos' assessment that what the Philippines now has is ''fragile stability''.

Ocampo says Arroyo is in a situation where her government is not just bedevilled by an economic crisis but a fractious coalition all demanding a lion's share of the spoils of power a year after she was catapulted to the presidency after the ouster of Estrada on corruption charges.

Add to the already potent brew the fact that ''everyone's interested in 2004'', the presidential elections, he adds. ''This year, 2002, is when people start building up resources for 2004, so we can at least expect some destabilisation attempts,'' Ocampo predicts.

Sociologist and political analyst Randolph David, for his part, adds: ''Coup rumours flourish especially in the afterglow of momentous political events. The energy from these events crystallises into a storm of impatient expectations demanding to be appeased.''

Both Ocampo and David say that rumours and reports of coups persist only point to the reality that the military establishment, which had been politicised and made strong during the years of dictatorship under Marcos, is still seen as a powerful institution.

Indeed, it continues to be seen as having the capacity to change the tide for or against a government.

During the presidency of Fidel Ramos, a former military official who succeeded Aquino, there was widespread belief that the soldiers had gone back to the barracks.

Military rebels

It has been rarely mentioned, however, that Ramos succeeded largely because he absolved military rebels, who tried but failed to unseat his predecessor, from any court martial proceedings.

For instance, those who launched the bloodiest coup and caused the Philippine economy to fall in 1989, were never punished. Its leader in fact, became a senator, the former Lt Col Gregorio Honasan.

The second popular uprising in 2001, called 'People Power 2 ' by Filipinos, changed the whole equation once again — when the military establishment's withdrawal of support for Estrada helped turn the tide against him.

David, who writes a column for the English-language daily Philippine Daily Inquirer, says, ''The (Arroyo) administration tried to protect itself against the threat of coups by co-opting key military leaders through appointments to cushy positions in government agencies and corporations.''

''This strategy silenced a few officers, but it also added to the dissension within the military,'' he adds.

Military groupings

There, it is ''immaterial'' whether the old military groupings involved the efforts against former Marcos and then Aquino still exist or not.

''When idealistic officers see their elders behave like corrupt politicians, they are released from the compulsions of command. If they are intelligent and have the boldness of their convictions, they will imagine themselves as being called upon to save the nation. They will form new organisations,'' David argues.

David also states that a military coup remains an attractive option for some Filipinos, including those in the military, because Philippine society remains enmeshed in gut issues of poverty and corruption. In that sense, repeated talk of coup attempts now and then reflects restiveness and lack of optimism among some parts of society.

''It is the thought of finally breaking up this cycle that makes coups seductive,'' David says.