exclusive The following are extracts of an interview with political economist Professor Jomo K S of the University of Malaya.

Malaysiakini: Happy new year. You've been very quiet for some time.

Jomo: Well, yes and no. I have just published Malaysian Eclipse (ZED, London, 2001) about the recent economic crisis and recovery, and that took up a lot of time. It offers what I hope is a nuanced perspective with no real heroes, but the current controversy is over the "Acknowledgements" where I salute (jailed former deputy prime minister) Anwar Ibrahim for his courage in taking a stand instead of the easier exit options he was offered.

But more generally, much of the local media is wary of talking to someone who has been sued for defamation for RM250 million; in that sense, they have succeeded. But also, censorship has been much tougher with the ongoing political crises, even now with the PM on the ropes.

PM in trouble?

Malaysiakini: Why do you say the Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad is on the ropes?

Jomo: Well, as you know, the 1999 general elections showed that he had lost Malay majority support; even in Johor, where the Barisan Nasional did very well, no one saw it as an endorsement for him.

Although Anwar has been convicted twice, it is he (Mahathir) and the judiciary who have lost credibility and the moral high ground. Much of the public in the peninsula, especially Malays below retirement age, are cynical about him. He has also lost support in the government administration and the intelligentsia, with few civil servants or military officers defending him privately with any sense of conviction.

But most importantly, it is now clear that he has lost much of the party rank and file, with a few elected party leaders now in almost open revolt. In private conversation, ministers and others discuss exit options and "Who will bell the cat?", and I am sure that the PM's intelligence service has told him so.

His recent appeal for "Malay unity" is widely seen as hollow and insincere. After all, as many say, "Who is primarily responsible for the current Malay malaise?" Most people in the know recognize that his demonisation of Suqiu is politically opportunistic and cynical, and that the Chinese threat was exaggerated to distract from the series of "crony bailouts" at the end of last year.

The bailouts not only highlighted the abuse of government policy yet again, but also exposed the privatisation policy since the mid-1980s as a colossal failure due to crony abuse.

Many Malaysians were previously appreciative of the September 1998 economic measures because they thought the subsequent recovery - throughout the region except for Indonesia - was due to these measures. Now, most are cynical that the window of opportunity offered by the capital control measures has been abused for cronyism and nepotism.

The stock market's slide in recent months despite continued recovery of the real economy and the decline in reserves despite strong exports point to capital flight, this time by Malaysians, and, if you believe the rumours, led by cronies, and including Malays too. Is this a sign that "the end" is nigh for them?

Of course, all this exploded in his (Mahathir's) face in the Lunas by-election, when many Chinese felt that they were finally seeing through his pre-election hypocrisy to secure their vote.

I remember many close to the PM noting how the humiliating conviction of two earlier Korean presidents - Chun Doo Hwan and Roh Tae Woo - seemed to be haunting him. And some of us have argued that, ironically, Suharto's sudden resignation in mid-May 1998 - after 32 years in power - triggered the efforts to politically eliminate Anwar, and Mahathir's own ongoing political crisis.

The recent fate of his friends (Zimbabwe Prime Minister Robert) Mugabe and (former Peru president Alberto) Fujimori must surely distress him further. The PM has been reduced to fraternising with the Burmese military dictatorship, even as we speak.

Exit scenarios

Malaysiakini: Are you predicting that he will have to quit soon?

Jomo: I am not in the fortune telling business, not even of the economic variety, let alone on politics. And I would be the first to recognise that the PM has been a shrewd political survivor who has also made important contributions to the nation, especially at the international level.

But the broad and growing consensus is that his days are numbered, and the speculation is over timing, sequencing and scenario. Timing issues are obvious, while sequencing has much to do with circumstances or the scenario.

Until recently, it was assumed that this would be an Umno affair, but the PM has cleverly opened up the options, obliging the Umno and Barisan Nasional leadership to watch as he confers with the Barisan Alternatif leadership. While Umno needs him to try to score a few points by being seen to be sincerely concerned about Malay unity, he may also be trying to outflank pressures from within the Umno leadership.

But returning to the exit scenario question, much will now depend on statesmanship on both sides, and on the ability to strike win-win compromises - or "smart partnerships" if you prefer his slogan. The future of the nation should be the foremost consideration.

I am confident that the opposition - in the form of the Barisan Alternatif leadership - will rise above the temptation to pursue political vendettas, but I am not sure the PM will recognise that this is the best deal on offer. In the unlikely event that he does, much of the damage of the last few years can be undone and the nation will come out of this stronger than ever before, and the PM's place in national history will be salvaged.

The alternatives, you can imagine, are rather unpleasant, and will take the nation backwards as we agonise through a protracted stalemate. Will he learn from the greatness of (Nelson) Mandela, or will he go the way of Marcos, Chun, Roh, Suharto and Fujimori? Patriotic Malaysians should help him make the correct decisions.