Key takeaways from Sarawak elections
SARAWAK POLLS | The Sarawak polls saw Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) returning to power with a supermajority control of the legislative assembly.
Based on available data, here are some key takeaways.
Drastic turnout drop in urban areas
According to the election commission, the turnout for this election is 60.67 percent, down from 70 percent during the 2016 election.
SARAWAK POLLS | The Sarawak polls saw Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) returning to power with a supermajority control of the legislative assembly.
Based on available data, here are some key takeaways.
Drastic turnout drop in urban areas
According to the Election Commission, the turnout for this election is 60.67 percent, down from 70 percent during the 2016 election.
However, the drop in turnout was uneven. In rural constituencies, the average drop was around 5.9 percent.
In urban constituencies, the average drop was around 17 percent. On average, the Kuching area saw a turnout drop of around 20 percent.
There is no clear correlation between a drop in turnout to an increased GPS' vote share.
Instead, the data suggest that a significant number of those who voted Pakatan Harapan in 2016 did not turn up to vote yesterday.
GPS vote share unchanged
Based on available data, GPS' vote share during the 2021 elections was insignificantly lower than 2016, down 0.94 percent.
GPS made gains in 35 constituencies, while there were two-digit percentage gains in Repok, Marudi, Batu Kawa, Meluan, Murum, Bukit Semuja and Tamin.
There were 11 seats where GPS won without winning 50 percent of the votes cast - Kota Sentosa, Simanggang, Batang Ai, Krian, Pakan, Ngemah, Bukit Assek, Dudong, Pelawan, Tanjung Batu and Pujut.
GPS managed to take five seats from the opposition.
PSB outshines Harapan
Upstarts Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) saw it garnering 18.8 percent of the vote share and four seats.
In contrast, Sarawak Pakatan Harapan, who are participating in the Sarawak elections for the fifth time as a coalition since 2011, drew 10.5 percent of the vote share.
PSB fielded 70 candidates while Harapan fielded 62 candidates.
PSB and Harapan clashed in 54 constituencies. In those 40 of those meetings, PSB drew more votes than Harapan.
There are some rural constituencies where PSB proved to be a legitimate contender to GPS.
Approximately a quarter of PSB's candidates were once PKR members. Two ex-PKR members won seats for PSB.
Who lost more deposits?
Harapan had 40 candidates who lost their deposits. Here's a breakdown:
Harapan did worse yesterday compared to the 2016 elections, which saw 26 of their candidates losing their deposits. At the time, Harapan was the only significant opposition.
PSB had 10 candidates who lost their deposits.
What is the significance of this election?
GPS' Abang Johari Abang Openg, 71, has won a huge mandate to govern. He has the approval of nearly two-thirds of the electorate, unlike during the Malacca election where BN's vote share was around 39 percent.
This will help Abang Johari stave off any challenges from within.
However, Abang Johari and GPS will have to deal with a fledgling PSB which has proven that it can translate disgruntlement into votes in certain rural constituencies.
As for PKR, any gains in influence over the past decade has essentially been erased. The party will also have to grapple with the fact that it has gone through two state elections with zero wins.
Observers will also be keen to see if Sarawak DAP chief Chong Chieng Jien will take a page from Tey Kok Kiew, who stepped down as Malacca DAP chief after the Malacca elections.
The huge drop in urban voter turnout also signifies that Harapan will have to address voter mobilisation strategies in the future.
Well, here is my take. Hehehe. GPS popularity has not increased, in fact decreased albeit slightly. In Sarawak, with a relatively low electorates per constituency, that is enough to win an election. In fact all those money politic were designed to get the minimum majority, they were not that much. They just ensure their supporters intact. Haparan (DAP and PKR) put up a token fight, knowing they would be trashed in this election. And they did. PSB is made up of renegades. Despite making an election wave, they were inconsequential in the bigger picture. In an election, there would always be the opposing voters. PSB happened to take that slot this time. All those poor turn out is inconsequential either. It would not change the outcome, perhaps the majority. Now about the money politic bit - some Ringgits changed hands before or after the ballots. People tend to simplify this a lot, of course they are wrong and at their peril. The Dayaks, who are supposed to whom it meant, are simple but not so simple people. You look down on them, they will smell it a million miles away. They love your money but you may not be on their side or even their friends. That makes the difference. Those election gratification is always a continuation of a relationship. BN local cadres and candidates are people they know, who eat and even sleep with them, staying overnight in their longhouses. They attended their wedding, birthday, baptism and funeral. Once a while, they recommend their children for government job or educational scholarship, and being in power, with their connection, their can achieve result. They recommend them to get those government tenders and contract or just hired them as workers. For these folks, come election, the candidates are not strangers. So what a few hundred Ringgit between friends. Politic in Sarawak can be time consuming that many town folks may not be able to cope with or simply not a way of their life. People are always receiving, the politicians on the other hand, giving. But they pay those back in their votes. DAP or PKR, if you want to succeed, then make in impact in their lives. PSB, people like WSK, the Sngs did. So the Dayaks are not racists. They are simple but you have to be on their side. Najib tried that with the Chinese in Sibiu, gua tolong lu, lu tolong gua, but it was so hypocritical, it didn’t work. People know what is practical and what is not. Hehehe.