DAP has been fairly quiet since pulling out of the opposition pact, Barisan Alternatif, three months ago. However, recently, DAP chairperson Lim Kit Siang has proposed the formation of another opposition pact, but minus PAS. So far, the other opposition parties, Keadilan and PRM, have responded to DAP's proposal with caution.

Lim, who announced the proposal in a lecture to students in London recently, said that the political aftermath of the Sept 11 terrorist attacks in the United States made it crucial for such a 'secular' pact. Lim said the government will manipulate the evils of terrorism as a result of Islamic fundamentalism and associate it with the opposition to frighten voters come the next general election.

DAP's proposal is nothing new. In the 1990 election, when most of the opposition parties including PAS grouped themselves into Angkatan Perpaduan Ummah or APU, DAP insisted that another opposition pact be formed - Gagasan Rakyat, which comprised only Semangat 46 and DAP.

The existence of Gagasan Rakyat was to serve the interest of DAP to avoid association with the Muslim-based party PAS. However, the formation of Gagasan Rakyat had provided the government, at that time, the opportunity to influence voters into thinking that the second coalition was necessary because a 'chauvinistic' party such as DAP couldn't get along with the other fellow opposition, PAS.

Formidable front

The formation of the opposition pact before the 1990 general election was an effort by Semangat 46 to form a formidable political front to effectively challenge the ruling Barisan Nasional. Though the Semangat leaders realised that the formation of another coalition with DAP will adversely affect the APU, the party had to oblige because it needed DAP to be in.

Sensing the possible confusion among voters when the BN fully exploited the issue on the existence of two opposition pacts within the same opposition circle, Semangat 46 took a precautionary measure by approaching Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) to support the opposition. The last-minute announcement of PBS' support for Gagasan and APU forced the BN to react strongly to avoid losing its political dominance.

Almost one-third of the parliamentary seats won by BN in the previous general elections came from Sabah and Sarawak. With PBS throwing its support for the opposition, there was fear that BN might lose its two-third majority if other states in Peninsular Malaysia were to fail to 'contribute' accordingly.

One of 'counter-attacks' launched by BN was to distribute the photographs of the Semangat 46 leader, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, wearing a Kadazan-Dusun traditional headgear, with a tapioca shoot motif resembling a cross on it. In a matter of days, the photographs were made available in almost all the states in the peninsula.

The effect of the photographs were quite devastating, so much so that the opposition had to resort to distributing a photograph of Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad himself wearing the same headgear with the so-called cross on it. But it was too late.

Although the opposition coalition lead by Razaleigh earlier looked set to form a new federal government, the last-minute manoeuvre by BN, including the widely-distributed photographs of Razaleigh, had done a last-minute damage to his image as well as the APU. PBS turned out to be a liability for both BN and APU.

After the 1990 general election, BN was returned to power with a two-third majority in parliament. But the biggest setback for BN was to lose the eastern state of Kelantan to PAS. Semangat 46 also benefitted from the coalition when the party won several seats in the Kelantan state assembly. While DAP's performance was not that encouraging and the party later attributed the poor showing to its 'association' with PAS.

APU and Gagasan later suffered a natural death after several component parties left the coalitions. Even Semangat 46 was later dissolved and Razaleigh together with his supporters later rejoined Umno. And last month, PBS applied to rejoin BN and the initial response from BN component leaders is quite favourable.

Lim's intentions

Lim now tries to initiate the formation of another opposition with Keadilan and PRM, inviting speculation about his actual intentions. Was it because the party felt 'lonely' after leaving the BA?

One political analyst thinks that Lim is trying to revive the Gagasan in order for the party to rejoin the opposition pact. This may have been sparked by Keadilan president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail's call on DAP to consider rejoining BA. In order to avoid the 'embarrassment' of being associated with PAS again, and also being branded as "fickle-minded", Lim tried to forward the idea of forming another opposition coalition, but minus PAS.

In that situation, Keadilan, PRM and PAS can co-operate through BA while DAP will confine itself to Keadilan and PRM in the second coalition pact. Could that be the reason or does Lim have something else in mind?

The other reason may be related to the Keadilan-PRM merger. When this takes place, BA will only be left with Keadilan and PAS. If DAP were to rejoin BA, the existing problem between the party and PAS on the Islamic state issue will continue to affect DAP's influence on non-Muslim voters.

As it is now, several political analysts think that BA can survive without DAP because Keadilan is basically a Malay-dominant multiracial party which opens its door to all races. It is somehow like a "mini-Barisan Nasional". This includes a number of former DAP leaders and members. As long as DAP stays outside the BA, there is a possibility that the party may lose more members to Keadilan.

Practical solution for DAP

As such, DAP has to find a more practical solution to this problem. And the most viable one could be Lim's idea of forming a second opposition coalition similar to Gagasan Rakyat. And this will enable DAP to continue sharing the political platform with the other opposition parties.

If the idea materialises, both coalition pacts will have two component parties each BA with Keadilan and PAS, and a new coalition with Keadilan and DAP.

Bearing in mind MCA's ongoing internal crisis, with Keadilan's help, DAP could score a greater success in the 2004 general election. But will Keadilan take the bait?

NASH RAHMAN is senior analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM) which produces the subscriber-based political report, Analysis Malaysia. He was the chief news editor in Berita Harian, editor of now defunct Watan and associate editor of The Sun.