opinion Kedah Umno found itself a problem in the 1999 general election when it lost 12 of the 36 state seats, and eight of the 15 parliamentary seats. (Kedah is the home state of Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad).

The party which dominated the Kedah state assembly since independence was dealt another blow when it lost its two-third majority for the first time after the Lunas state seat went to the opposition in a by-election last year.

The result was seen as a significant shift away from Umno (the major component of the BN coalition), whose leaders were alleged to favour development. They were seen to be not spending enough time with party supporters. Then Menteri Besar, Sanusi Junid, became the scapegoat for party's dismal performance in the 1999 general election.

He faced an onslaught of criticism for his handling of the election machinery and resigned shortly thereafter.

But even after that, BN still lost its two-third majority in the state assembly, following the Lunas by-election. So perhaps there were other reasons for the party's poor show.

Rocky ride

First, let's consider the range of campaign issues. A key factor in the emergence of sharp divisions in Umno is the dismissal of deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim from government and party posts. His termination also gave birth to a splinter party, Keadilan.

A weak Umno means a rocky ride for BN in Kedah. This seriously affected Umno's performance in the election. Even the majority obtained by Mahathir in his Kubang Pasu parliamentary constituency dropped to 10,138 from 17,228 in the 1995 general election.

The controversial Sanusi also contributed to voters' strong swing to the opposition. His 'too-futuristic projects' such as planting paddy on the roof of buildings had drawn criticism not only from the opposition but within Umno leaders themselves who were earlier divided following Sanusi's appointment to replace Osman Aroff as Menteri Besar of Kedah.

The implementation of several 'mega-projects' in the state such as Jerai Resort, Kerpan tiger prawn farm, Beris Dam and a gigantic land reclamation project from Jerlun to Yan which involved acquiring the local community's land, contributed to the voters' change of support.

Critics say the mega-infrastructure projects were implemented without consultation from the affected communities. A few years back, local villagers in Kerpan, whose land was acquired for a controversial tiger prawn farm, expressed discontent by staging demonstrations against the authority.

The party leaders are seen to be too concerned with development agendas that they overlooked the actual needs of the people.

Harping on the so-called successes of the nation such as the Petronas Twin Towers or Formula One circuit will not make much sense to people living in rural areas.

Bandying development projects does not work in luring people's into Umno fold. This is evident in Kelantan where despite lacking development under PAS rule, the people continue to vote in the Islamic party.

Rural support

Kedah Umno leaders should instead find local solutions to local problems. The political battleground has shifted to the villages. Clearly, PAS sensed this shift and has succeeded in garnering public support. The same is happening in other Malay-majority states.

In many ways it is in rural areas that the Malay support for either Umno and PAS is tested.

Without concrete moves on the part of the Kedah Umno to rectify the situation, there are many more potential problems on the horizon. If the worn-out party flags flying atop several Umno headquarters is an indicator, one can predict that the result of the coming general election is again going to be very close, and not necessarily in Umno's favour.

Is the morale amongst Umno party leaders and members low? Did the 1999 election results and Lunas by-election boost the opposition's morale enormously? Are Umno members relying on Mahathir, the party president, to save the state from an opposition onslaught in the coming general election, possibly in 2004?

The big question now is how prepared is the Kedah BN, particularly Umno election machinery, to retain the state in the coming general election. To start with, Umno at state level must rejuvenate itself.

But this does not mean that the people have lost faith in Umno. They are merely frustrated with the party's lack of action at grassroots level.

Umno should organise party volunteers to address the grassroots needs by explaining issues such as the Islamic state. PAS on the other hand is doing very well in this area.

Many Umno Youth and Puteri Umno members have been seen in Alor Setar collecting donations for Afghan refugees. Wouldn't it be better if the same spirit is also devoted to helping the poor in the rural areas of Kedah?

Historically, Kedah has produced politicians of high calibre, including the first prime minister, Tunku Abdul Rahman Putra, and now Mahathir. Others include controversial figures like former finance minister Daim Zainudin and Sanusi himself. At one time, the name Kedah and Umno were synonymous.

To restore the people's support, Umno leaders must be prepared to accept constructive criticism. They should not react negatively to such criticism but instead take it as input from the people who elected them to power.

NASH RAHMAN is senior analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM) which produces the subscriber-based political report, Analysis Malaysia. He is a former chief news editor in Berita Harian, editor of now defunct Watan and associate editor of The Sun.