analysis The reinstatement of two sacked MCA youth leaders - (ex)secretary-general Yew Teong Look and (ex)deputy chairperson Loh Seng Kok - seems to have fundamentally transformed the power struggle between two hostile factions of top leaders into a protracted war of attrition at all levels. The 'ground troops' and 'special forces' of both factions have certainly began their operations at the grassroots.

Perhaps the reinstatement of Yew and Loh had long been expected and anticipated by Ong and the Team B because both Yew and Loh are Ling's right-hand in the Ong-led MCA Youth. Had Ling not cleared their names, protected them and restored the status quo ante, his presidential authority and power would have been considerably weakened.

However, the question remains as to why the majority of the veterans support Ling. There are several possible explanations.

One, the veterans are sincerely and honestly convinced that Ong's faction is wrong and Ling's is right.

Two, the veterans are loyal to the party to the extent they believe only Ling's faction could save and lead it in years to come.

As such, it is immaterial as to who was wrong or right in the Aug 3 fracas, as long as any challengers to the status quo and the behind-the-scene business-invested interests are suppressed and Ling prevails.

Of course, both Ling and his faction would claim that the first is the only explanation.

Integrity issue

However, one can also expect Ong and his faction to suggest that the veterans are either biased, unfair, or self-serving because they share business interests with Ling and his factions.

Ong and his faction, for example, could offer to prove the lack of independence and integrity among the veterans by exposing their questionable business involvement and linkages. Another way of questioning the veterans' integrity is to show that the political and personal characters of some veterans are not impeccable after all.

Wang Choon Weng, for example, was involved in the co-operatives scandal in the late 1980s that nearly destroyed the party. He was then jailed for criminal breach of trust.

But perhaps, the veterans had long anticipated the challenge to their moral authority and legitimacy by Ong and Team B. Thus, they first launched their pre-emptive strike by accusing Ong of planning and instigating the chair-throwing fracas during the Youth EGM on Aug 3.

While it is difficult deny the possibility of Ong or his agent provocateurs or pseudo-gang staging the 'riot' to make Yew and Loh look bad, the former could counter-claim that the veterans' accusation is biased, nonsensical and libelous.

Anyhow, the accusation in the veterans' 'investigative' report that Ong and his men self-staged the fracas could be exploited by Ling's faction to lodge police reports against Ong.

Ong, of course, could first challenge the veterans to lodge a police against him. Or he could himself lodge a police report alleging the veterans of being an 'accessory after a (criminal) fact'.

Almost immediately after the chair-throwing fracas, Ong lodged a police report in Kuala Lumpur.

As for Ling, although he has derived a certain degree of satisfaction from the veterans' report, it is still not clear whether Yew and Loh would actually be re-instated in the MCA Youth leadership.

And even if the two are re-instated Ong's faction could still boycott them through non-co-operation campaign. It is believed that Ong's public image is stronger or larger than his numerical strength in the MCA Youth leadership.

Lobbying for support

However, Ong's continued self-confidence is not entirely unjustified. In the parent party EGM held to vote on the proposal to take over Nanyang Siang Pau and China Press, about 47 percent of the delegates voted against Ling's decision. It is upon this critically significant minority that Ong and, for that matter Chua Jui Meng and others in Team B, could mount on a do-or-die battle royale next year.

Already, Ong and Team B leaders have been travelling around the country to gather grassroots support. A new campaign theme has also emerged from this - that the party headquarters in Kuala Lumpur, controlled by Ling-loyalist Wong See Wah, is 'manipulating' the membership lists to increase the voting strength for Ling.

The Petaling Jaya Utara division has been alleged to contain 'phantom branches'. Allegations, counter-allegations and denials are not new in MCA and we can expect them to increase.

With three major Chinese-language newspapers and one English-language daily on his side, and the control of the administration of the headquarters, Ling's faction seems set to enjoy tremendous advantages over the opposing faction. However, the do-or-die resolution of Team B also seems to have motivated them to intensify 'ground operations' to offset the advantages enjoyed by Ling.

Both camps certainly have to be prepared for a protracted war of attrition in the next six months. The branch and division elections are scheduled for March next year, to be followed by elections of the central committee in June or July.

JAMES WONG WING ON is chief analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia (SAM) which produces the subscriber-based political report, Analysis Malaysia. James is a former member of parliament (1990-1995) and a former columnist for the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily. He read political science and economics at the Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. While in Sin Chew, he and a team of journalists won the top awards of Malaysian Press Institute (MPI) for 1998 and 1999.