The odds are stacked against Dr Mahathir Mohamad in Kubang Pasu.

Just three years ago, that conclusion would have been dismissed as preposterous. But now, it appears to be the reality in the ex-premier's former stronghold located in his home state of Kedah.

Pundits have predicted that Mahathir's bid to be elected as a delegate from the division will not be an easy task.

Despite being the division's former chief and Umno president for 22 years, Mahathir's chances are said to be on par, if not less, with the other 16 candidates vying for the seven delegate spots.

In fact, pundits believe that it would be wiser to place a wager on his son Mukhriz, who is also in this Saturday's race.

Mahathir only managed to secure 16 nominations to contest as a delegate while Mukhriz garnered 50.

The former premier's chances are being hampered by the serious effort by certain quarters to prevent him from winning as well as a weak and disorganised campaign machinery.

50-50 chances

Contacted today, a branch leader from the Jitra zone rated Mahathir's chances at being 50-50.

He arrived at this conclusion based on what transpired at a recent meeting in the zone where delegates were split on whether to vote for the former Umno president.

The Jitra zone will be sending 48 delegates to the Kubang Pasu division meet, where 508 delegates from a total of 143 branches will decide on who among the 17 candidates will represent the division at November's Umno general assembly in Kuala Lumpur.

"In that (Jitra zone) meeting, Mahathir did not get more than 50 percent of the votes ... so we estimate some 20 votes will be cast in his favour.

"This is because many of them feel that as a former prime minister and Umno president, he should not be reduced to being a delegate," said the branch leader, who declined to be named.

"Another factor is that Mahathir was late in confirming his decision to contest. Apart from this, his harsh criticisms against the government has also affected the mood of the delegates," he added.

Despite being "a true son of Kubang Pasu", the branch leader said this will not give Mahathir an advantage.

Times have changed, Mahathir is no longer the prime minister and Umno president so people see him as nothing more than an 'orang kampung', he added.

Meanwhile, the Gen M (Generation Mahathir) club, a Mahathir-support group, are surprised with the lack of campaigning done by the former premier's supporters in the area.

"We who come from outside of Kubang Pasu to support Mahathir are disappointed," said a Gen M member when contacted.