COMMENT | Why Umno may want Muhyiddin as their PM
COMMENT | In politics, everyone wants to be prime minister. The question of the prime ministership is a sensitive and divisive topic.
It can reveal the worst instincts of power-hungry politicians, it can push a coalition to the brink of collapse, it can turn friends into foes.
For Pakatan Harapan, there have been over five different arrangements of prime ministership, and the coalition is breaking at its centre because of this unresolved question.
For Perikatan Nasional (PN), this question has also seen various proposals by different parties — all wanting their own man to be at the helm. Even Putra leader Ibrahim Ali could mock both sides.
There are at least three candidates that are seen favourably by Umno as prime minister...
COMMENT | In politics, everyone wants to be prime minister. The question of the prime ministership is a sensitive and divisive topic.
It can reveal the worst instincts of power-hungry politicians, it can push a coalition to the brink of collapse, it can turn friends into foes.
For Pakatan Harapan, there have been over five different arrangements of prime ministership, and the coalition is breaking at its centre because of this unresolved question.
For Perikatan Nasional (PN), this question has also seen various proposals by different parties — all wanting their own man to be at the helm. Even Putra leader Ibrahim Ali could mock both sides.
There are at least three candidates that are seen favourably by Umno as prime minister: former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak, party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Bersatu head Muhyiddin Yassin (above).
Fierce return of Najib
There is a faction that still puts Najib as the rightful candidate. This group of Umno politicians survive on Najib's patronage and have publicly stated their support for him. Once you have crossed the Rubicon, there is no turning back. The only way is forward.
They have risked a lot for Najib (below), and their lifeline in politics depends on his return to power.
Oddly, the scandal-ridden former prime minister has gained tremendous popularity in the past year, owing to shrewd political communications and a capable propaganda machine that maintains his innocence.
The racial-religious polarisation driven by BN during Harapan's administration has also struck fears in the hearts of many Umno supporters. When in horror, they looked nostalgically to an immediate past.
Even though it may not be true, they tell themselves that times were better under Najib’s administration. It was safer and more peaceful — at least the invisible force of corruption never landed at their doorsteps immediately. At least there was no threat of losing rights and dignity. At least WhatsApp viral messages did not feel like the end of the world then.
Najib's influence is still immense in Umno. The Chini by-election victory showed his strength.
Chini is a state constituency under Najib’s Pekan parliamentary constituency, and his backyard machinery carried through a big win (albeit unopposed by a credible alternative).
He had a chance to field his eldest son, Mohd Nizar Najib, to kickstart his son’s political career and succeed him. But he chose not to — claiming that he was not like other high-profile politicians with family involvements in politics. His sly remarks were an indication of his newfound confidence and a display of strength. This would give some comfort to his supporters.
But beyond his hardcore supporters, the fence-sitters are not too sure if they should bet their future on him. They are waiting for what happens to his court cases. If he is found innocent, then the fence-sitters in Umno may stand behind him again, one by one.
They are waiting for the next wave.
Zahid’s delayed return after garden leave
For some, Zahid is a credible alternative to Najib. He was the deputy prime minister who should have succeeded Najib. To some Umno supporters, Najib was the reason for their historical downfall, and the cause of their 22 months of suffering as the opposition under Harapan.
The basic argument is that if Zahid had succeeded Najib earlier, Umno would have survived GE14, since Zahid’s hands were not tainted with an international disaster like 1MDB.
Like Najib, Zahid (above) is also an Umno veteran who commands a substantial level of support in the party. He is the rightful party president, elected through democratic means.
To his supporters, he was victimised by former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad with over 47 criminal charges, causing not only public humiliation but forcing a garden leave to stable the sinking ship.
This remains Zahid's biggest burden. He is still a scandal-ridden candidate — that is why he was dropped from any cabinet or GLC positions by Muhyiddin — and Umno’s comeback only started when he took leave as president.
It was with deputy party president Mohamad Hasan’s leadership that Umno was able to win five by-elections in a row, and the morale of the party took a drastic turn for the better when Zahid was out of the picture.
Many Umno supporters understand that the early struggle for a dignified Malay-Muslim race is and always will be a worthwhile battle. Umno, being seen as a corrupt party, is not why they joined and stood with Umno through the toughest times. For the party to restart, they must renew — and you do that by removing politicians who contribute to its tainted image.
At the very least, Umno must start with a prime minister candidate who has no criminal court cases.
Why Muhyiddin?
That is why some Umno politicians are inclined to support Muhyiddin as their prime minister. This is a strange move because you would always prefer a prime minister from your party, and Umno would not compromise by giving up the prime minister seat to other parties.
But this is an unusual time. Some Umno MPs may profit from supporting an outsider like Muhyiddin as their preferred prime minister candidate for the following reasons:
1) Muhyiddin has no court cases. Muhyiddin was also remembered for opposing 1MDB before he was booted out — a martyr of a righteous cause. At least that is what was told to us. Supporting Muhyiddin shows that Umno is sincere in cleaning up its party and starting over.
2) Muhyiddin appears to reward loyalty. What we know so far is that Muhyiddin has given almost all of his key allies in PN some kind of position– the spoils of war. He seems ready to put a premium on loyalty, regardless of suitability or competence. Some Umno MPs, who would have otherwise been left without anything, have been given positions under Muhyiddin’s administration.
These Umno MPs would probably not have gained as much under other candidates.
3) Muhyiddin is not a complete outsider — he was once an Umno member. Typically, a prime minister would select cabinet members based on who has the largest support within his party.
Prime ministers in the past have made sure their party warlords are given the best positions; they would also make sure other senior party members are given high positions to make up for the prime minister’s lack of support in some areas within the party.
If Muhyiddin is an “outsider” prime minister (ie a prime minister who does not come from the largest political party), he would probably not have to select cabinet members based on who has the largest support in Umno.
In other words, small-time Umno MPs who do not have a commanding presence in the party will have a chance to stand out. In fact, Muhyiddin may be more inclined to select Umno MPs who are not party warlords as a tactical move to deflate its overall influence in his government.
Muhyiddin, an Umno man who is not in Umno?
But here is the best part - Muhyiddin is not a complete outsider; he is still likely, in some ways, an Umno man.
This could mean there is a certain level of trust small-time Umno MPs can rely on, so that they would benefit from supplying confidence in him. Having an outsider makes things more transactional, but it is not totally devoid of trust.
Other Umno names have started to make it to the mainstream: Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, Mat Hasan, Ismail Sabri Yaakob and Khairy Jamaluddin. But they have not gained the traction to the level of Najib, Zahid or Muhyiddin.
None of these choices is ideal. But at least we could try to understand why an outsider like Muhyiddin may be a preferred choice to some Umno MPs. It makes things less crazy in a crazy world.
JAMES CHAI is a legal consultant and researcher working for Invoke, among others. He also blogs at jameschai.com.my. You may reach him at jameschai.mpuk@gmail.com.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.
