They have seen it all in the last 20 days - the 1,441 delegates to the 60th MIC congress that starts at the PWTC tomorrow.

The 61 contestants - some paupers and others multi-millionaires - have stood before them and unashamedly begged, pleaded, hugged and in some cases even kissed for that precious vote that decides between defeat and victory; between walking tall and finding a hole to hide.

The no-turning-back-kind-of passions that have been unleashed were seen in the contest for the Wanita MIC chief s post two weeks ago.

Incumbent Jaya Partiban lost by 56 votes and has since disappeared completely from MIC circles.

In contrast the challenger Kamala Krishnamurthy, who won, is everywhere and walking with a bounce, looking some 10 years younger.

The passion is seen at every level of the contest but it is most intense in the tussle for the deputy president s post where incumbent S. Subramaniam is being challenged by G.Palanivel, vice-president since 1994.

For Subramaniam, who has held the post for a quarter century, it is a do-or-die battle. He is asking delegates to give him another three-year term and has promised to work with president S Samy Vellu for the betterment of the Indian community.

Challenger G Palanivel however asked delegates to vote out Subramaniam so that a leadership transition, from Samy Vellu to Palanivel the chosen successor, can take place smoothly.

Palanivel also says he is a hard worker and has done much compared to Subramaniam, who refutes the charges.

Samy Vellu himself has told delegates he wants change, he can t work with Subramaniam and that he prefers Palanivel.

So these are the main issues in a nutshell. The contestants all pledge support for Samy Vellu and promise to work with him. They don t talk about poverty, lack of oppourtunity or what plans they have to uplift the Indian community.

As Dr P Ramasamy said (in an article in malaysiakini) this is an election without a development agenda.

Delegates just have to decide between retaining an old horse and bringing in a new one.

Samy's request

To make the argument for change palatable for his supporters, Samy accuses Subramaniam of stabbing him in the back, an accusation that is difficult to swallow on the face of it but goes a long way to colour the perception of the voters.

The question now is will the delegates buy Samy's argument and kick out Subramaniam and bring in Palanivel or reject his request and retain Subramaniam.
By most counts, the majority of the delegates will take the cue from Samy and make the changes. The question then is how big the winning or losing majority is.

It is a well known that after Subramaniam challenged Samy and lost in 1989, Samy proceeded to remake the MIC.

He first sacked many Subramaniam supporters, sidelined others and began a revamp of the party that continues till today. He brought in a new breed of grassroots members who are loyal to him.

This is the MIC that has been asked to vote on Saturday, it is Samy Vellu's MIC.
Under the circumstances the majority of the delegates will heed Samy's call for change and vote out Subramaniam and without much regret either.

From day one it was an uphill battle for Subramaniam. Everybody knows that. Nothing much has changed during the campaign to change the status quo, said a former MIC vice-president. Samy Vellu s supporters, who form about 65% of the voters, will vote for Palanivel.

The outcome has always been predictable, he said.

Don't write Subra off

A defeat however does not mean the end of Subramaniam, politically that is. It would erase his chance to inherit the party leadership that was first promised to him by Manicavasagam in 1973.

He should not be written off, not yet.

After his defeat Subramaniam, who is Si-Puteh MIC division chief until 2009, is expected to wait as he had waited since his failed challenge for the top post against party president Samy Vellu in 1989.

It is unlikely he will slip, in the near term, into that semi-coma status many former MIC leaders find themselves in. If he does slip into such a coma then he could be safely written off.

As he waits he will hope for the president s post to fall vacant as it happened in 1979 when then president Manicavasagam suddenly died, opening the path for Samy to become president.

Party insiders said Subramaniam has the stature and experience to make a comeback if his main rival Samy Vellu is no longer standing in his way.

It will take some years for Palanivel to build up his team in the MIC, consolidate his position and grow into the job. Until that time he will remain vulnerable and will need the strong arm of his patron, Samy Vellu.

After tomorrow, the MIC equation will see Samy Vellu as president, Palanivel ensconced as his deputy and Subramaniam waiting in the wings for a gift from heaven.

Already some MIC insiders are looking to the next election in 2009 as the final arbitrator of the question, who after Samy Vellu?

The vice-president s contest - a race for three berths - is riddled with back biting.

This is because front runner S Sothinathan is being seen as a rival to Palanivel in the post-Saturday scenario. He is the ideal leader to collect all the nay votes that is an integral part of the MIC.

He is also, unlike the ageing Veerasingam, a potential leader who can stake a claim to be deputy president and even president, in the future.

This makes him and Palanivel natural born rivals.

Who will be top veep?

If an on-going attempt to reduce Sothinathan s votes worked, it is likely that incumbent KS Nijhar might emerge first followed by Veerasingam. Sothinathan might end up in third place.

There are 52 candidates in the race for the 23 spots in the central working committee and that makes the contest an unruly market place.

Samy Vellu's official list of 23 candidates is top heavy with state chairmen, MPs and assemblymen including the odd persons like T Marimuthu who says he is an education expert and therefore a sure winner.

It is likely at least one, if not two, in the official list could miss the boat.

The frequently mentioned victims in the official list are businessman Chandrasekaran Suppiah, a director of Ranhill Corp and Vimalah Nair, the sole woman who won in the 2003 contest.

The newcomers standing out are Ragoo Krishnamurthy, millionaire owner of the Gayathri sari shops who besides being personable, is also generous and campaigns hard, both directly and in the Tamil newspapers.

Three other independents who have a fighting chance are Kajang Rhanee, a businesswoman who owns road maintenance companies, S Paramasivam, vice-president of a stock brokering company and S Manivasagam, a struggling businessman.

The candidates contesting are:

President: Samy Vellu (Elected unopposed in March)

Deputy President: S Subramaniam (incumbent since 1981) and G Palanivel (challenger, vice-president since 1994)

Vice-presidents (three posts, seven challengers): S Veerasingam (incumbent),
Dr KS Nijhar (incumbent), S Sothinathan (newcomer), M Muthupalaniappan (former vice-president), E Yohavel (former Si-Rusa assemblyman), VKK Teagarajan (businessman and Federal Territory MIC chief), S Teagarajan (businessman from Klang).

Central Working Committe (23 posts, 52 challengers) Listed below are incumbents and those said to be 'preferred' by the president.

V. Saravanan (Kedah), M Davendran (Pahang), G Rajoo (Perak), R Ganesan (Perak), SS Rajagopal (Selangor), KSBalakrishnan (Johore), Dr S Subramaniam (Johore), Mrs Kamala Ganapathy (Selangor), T Rajagopalu (Negri Sembilan), Ms Vimala Nair (Federal territory), K Munusamy (Perak), S Ganesan (Kedah), PKSubbaiyah (Penang), S Krishnasamy (Johore), M Saravanan (Federal Territory), Dr T Marimuthu (Federal Territory), Dr K Rajapathy (Penang), S Balakrishnan (Johore), K Sivalingam (Selangor), Dr L Krishnan (Negri Sembilan), Chandrasekaran Suppiah, V Thiagarajan and R Raghavan