IPS feature

Pakistan's government meant to a send a signal with last week's meeting of the powerful Nuclear Command and Control Authority (NCA) - that its nuclear weapons are in safe hands during the war in neighbouring Afghanistan and increased uncertainty in South and Central Asia.

The meeting was also aimed at saying that there is no chance of them being blown up accidentally or getting into the hands of religious fanatics, say security experts.

Sandwiched between western doubts over Pakistan's effective control over nuclear weapons and the religious lobby's fear that under US pressure, the military-led government may disband its nuclear programme, President Gen Pervez Musharraf said that he has reassured world leaders that the country's ''strategic capability'' was fully safeguarded.

The meeting of the NCA, the highest controlling authority of the country's nuclear assets, was attended by the federal foreign and interior ministers, chairman joint chiefs of staff committee, three services chiefs and senior scientists.

Chairing the meeting, Pervez reaffirmed that Pakistan's strategic assets were the cornerstone of the country's national security and there was no question of any compromise on the nuclear programme.

Media reports suggest that before the US-led air strikes on Afghanistan began on Oct 7, the Pakistan government took security measures by creating some eight no-fly zones mostly over its sensitive security installations. This means that any aircraft violating these zones would be shot down, the reports added.

Security experts consider the NCA meeting significant especially in the light of a visit here in the last week of September of six US military officials, led by Brig Gen Kavin Chilton. They spoke to Pakistani officials about improving security and installing new safeguards on its nuclear weapons and at its nuclear power plants.

This reflects US fears that in the face of sustained US-led attacks on Afghanistan and Pakistan's precarious position as a frontline state, unrest could boil over in Pakistan. Those strains could be reflected in the Pakistan army and there is concern that Afghan sympathisers in the military might seize control of the country's nuclear weapons, according to such fears.

No nuclear button

But Maria Sultan, research fellow in the Institute of Strategic Studies (ISS), brushed aside such western fears as unfounded. She says the very structure of NCA does not allow such a worst-case scenario.

''Pakistan's command and control system is based on a central authoritative system, therefore there is lesser potential of accidental launches or misuse,'' she explained.

She adds that there is an overlapping of military, political and scientific officials with control over nuclear matters.

Also, Pakistan does not have its nuclear capability in a push-button state, which means ''it would need a lot of synchronisation with a larger number of personnel, hence the possibility of some rogue element taking control is impossible'', Maria pointed out.

''Unlike the United States, there is no nuclear button in the hand of one person or one organisation. If the threat of nuclear terrorism is to be considered as a viable option, any power which has the capability of producing nuclear fissile material even for civilian use is a source of threat,'' she argued.

Pakistan also does not have a large number of civilian nuclear power plants that can be overtaken over by terrorist groups.

Maria adds that Pakistan's national command authority is so designed that it gives a decision-making time of at least a couple of hours and ''in the case of conventional attack by its rival India, a strike reaction time of approximately 10 days will be present for the Pakistan to respond''.

Help with fool-proofing

In February last year, Pervez established the National Command Authority and made it responsible for policy formulation and has control over all strategic nuclear forces.

Zafar Jaspal, a strategic expert working with the think tank Islamabad Research Policy Institute (IPRI), said in an interview that in terms of its organisation set-up and lines of authority and responsibility, the NCA has that credibility.

''But when one makes comparison with the other nuclear weapon states, particularly with reference to high-tech states, the situation is dubious or in simple terms Pakistan need technology to make it fool-proof,'' Zafar said. '' To make it more effective Pakistan needs technological assistance from the developed world.''

Pakistan may need assistance, including from countries like the United States, in installing new safeguards at its nuclear sites. But US laws do not allow the sharing such information with other countries.

On Oct 17 the US House of Representatives passed a bill giving authority to US President George W Bush to waive all military and economic sanctions against Pakistan.

This marks the first time in a decade that Pakistan will be entirely free of any US sanction, but it remains unclear if this could also mean sharing nuclear information with Pakistan in line with its strategic interests in the 'war against terrorism'.

Pakistan detonated its nuclear device in May 1998 in a series of tit-for-tat tests with India, tests that created concern about the nuclearisation of the South Asian countries given the rivalry between the two and their decades-long dispute and wars over Kashmir.

The same concern remains today given the war in Afghanistan, with Islamabad siding with the United States in its 'war against terrorism' given political, economic and diplomatic pressure - and increased tensions in Kashmir following the October attacks.

A new war of words has also begun between India and Pakistan amid increased violence in Kashmir, which India says is provoked by ''terrorism'' supported by Islamabad but which Islamabad counters is a freedom struggle by militants in Kashmir.