In the just-concluded state election, the Sarawak Barisan Nasional suffered a drop of nearly 10 percentage point in popular votes and failed to clinch a clean sweep as some quarters had predicted.

Its share of the popular vote went down from 71.16% in 2001 to 62.14% in 2006 while Democratic Action Party's (DAP) share went up from 8.14% to 14.94%. Parti Keadilan Rakyat's (PKR) share went up from 6.94% to 8.61% but Independents/PAS' share was down from 11.9% to 4.94%. Snap which contested under BN in 2001 this time on its own garnered 9.36% of the 556,657 votes cast.

However, being less popular now does not mean the BN had yielded its enviable position with more than a two-third majority that it has been enjoying for numerous terms, even when the state legislative assembly has been enlarged from 62 to 71 members following last year's delineation of electoral boundaries.

There had never been any suggestion at any time it could lose that bedrock position, much less its majority being reduced down to a danger level, in the forseeable future, unless threatened by yet another major leadership leading to a pull-out of some disgruntled component parties.

That scenario under the present political circumstances is rather unimaginable, say most political observers.

The outcome of the 2006 elections for the BN was never in doubt anyway. The only question was how many out of the 71 seats would fall to the opposition and where.

As it turned out, the BN did lose seats, not four or five seats (the number many had said at the very most the opposition would grab) but more (nine) and the poltical party most adversely affected within the BN is the Chinese-based Sarawak United People's Party. Analysts are still trying to figure out why, so is Supp.

Out of the nine seats it lost, seven are urban or Chinese majority seats and two Iban majority. Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud's Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) contested in 35 seats and won all, but won in a Malay/Melanau seat (Saribas) with the narrowest of margin (94 votes) in a straight fight PKR.

This has raised questions as to whether with the right candidates and a longer presence in the state, PKR could make greater inroads into PBB strongholds.

Reverse of the trend

How did the opposition manage to perform so well?

According to a senior academic with a local university, the results clearly indicate a vote swing to the opposition (made up of a loose grouping of Sarawak National Party (Snap) and PKR calling themselves Barisan Bersatu Sarawak (BBS), the DAP and Parti Islam Malaysia (PAS), apart from 20 Independents.

In the past few state elections, the trend had always been for the BN. In the 2001 election, the opposition only won one (Kidurong) and an Independent one (Meluan).

"The pleasant surprise is you have a credible opposition line-up in the country's oldest state assembly which in the last 30 years was not distinguished with informed and intellectual debate but more noted for sycophantic idol worshipping," he said.

Another surprise was because some BN policies such as on land matters (native customary rights or NCR land affecting the Dayaks and to a certain extent the Malays and the renewal of land leases affecting the urban Chinese) were out of touch with reality and not what the ordinary people wanted. The BN paid for it in terms of their candidates being rejected in the nine seats and almost lost in several more.

The senior academic said the cause of the slip in support for the BN was also due to the 'BN not being tolerant enough' with their frequent display of arrogance following the massive mandate secured in previous elections.

"Sometimes the intelligence of the people is being insulted," was how a businessman put it. Many voters agreed with the DAP's election slogan 'Enough is enough', apparently put to good effect as the message apparently got down to the ground in many urban centres.

"Don't be so greedy," the same businessman implied. "Greed is a kind of disease that knows no bound like alcohol that has touched many people."

When arrogance had taken over and a government failed continuously to listen to people's grouses, that is when in a democracy the voters started to express their feelings forcefully, like what they did particularly in Kuching on May 20.

Quietly, the unhappy electorate in Kuching took their frustration and anger to the polls and booted out four of Supp senior leaders - Sim Kheng Hui in Pending, Alfred Yap in Kota Sentosa, Chan Seng Khai in Batu Lintang and Lily Yong in Padungan.

PKR acceptable

Adding insult to injury, Sim, the Supp party veteran and seen hitherto as invincible, was knocked out by DAP newcomer 29-year-old woman lawyer Violet Yong Wui Wui with an unexpectedly huge majority.The majority reverse process was a big one that must have left Sim wondering what had really gone wrong.

Apart from this, they even voted in PKR legal adviser Dominique Ng Kim Ho in Padungan which is the Chinese heartland in Kuching. This gives the lie to the claim that the Chinese would never vote a candidate standing under a PKR symbol with some ties with PAS, according to PKR leaders.

The voters' wrath extended to Bukit Assek where state DAP chairperson Wong Ho Leng made a successful comeback to the state assembly after beating Supp's Daniel Ngieng also with a big majority. In Meradong, another DAP woman candidate Ting Tze Hui, beat Supp's Wong Zee Yeng also by a big majority.

The popular DAP politician in Bintulu, Chiew Chin Sing, managed to retain his Kidurong seat by an even bigger majority of 1644 votes despite the concerted effort of the BN to wrest the seat back.

Among the Chinese electorate, the hot issues included the many deepsea trawler fishing licences issued by the government to foreigners through local middle-men or commission agents which had caused a lot of unhappiness among traditional Sarawak fishermen. They see it not only as a deprivation of their only source of income but also a serious depletion of Sarawak's fish resources off the coast of the state. Supp had failed to address the issue.

Another issue was Supp's failure to handle the land lease renewal issue, specially among the Chinese. DAP's Batu Gajah MP Fong Po Kuan described Supp as 'a parti hanya kongsi nama tetapi tak kongsi kuasa.' (Supp shares the BN name but not power).

Another factor for the popular vote swing in certain areas, according to the senior academic, was the Anwar Ibrahim factor. There is a claim that the Chinese generally have an aversion to PKR, and yet when Dominique Ng chose to stand in the predominantly Chinese seat of Padungan he found there was little resistance to PKR.

During the campaigning period, Anwar, accompanied by Ng, went on a walk-about to shake hands with shopkeepers in Padungan and addressed one of PKR's largest ceramah attended by about 3000 people, comprising businessmen, contractors and party supporters. He also travelled to many Malay and Iban areas in other parts of the state to campaign for their candidates.

Supp leaders fumbled to find the answers to many of the issues raised by the opposition. Their point was simple: It is better to be part of the government than being outside so that at least they could help to bring development to the people.

Instead they got a retort from many Chinese voters: "What development?" The senior academic said to the BN government, development means infrastructure projects but these projects benefit only a few and do not provide employment because they are transitory in nature.

"Once the contracts are finished they move to the next," he said.

There should be more revenue-generating and employment-projects, especially for the young, research and development (R&D) projects, skills development training programmes, small and medium enterprises (SMEs), mini industries.

"Here we're cultivating the National Economic Policy with very little expertise," the senior academic added.

The Taib issue not discussed

The election results in fact indicate a vote swing across the board - in Chinese, Malay/Melanau and Dayak areas - but more so in urban areas where the electorate are much less susceptible to the influence of money politics, according to most political analysts.

Supp leaders, after an initial post-mortem meeting following the elections, described the party's eight-seat loss out of 19 seats contested as "one of the darkest days in the history of the party." Thanking party members and loyal supporters, it said it acknowledged their message loud and clear. "We will take the necessary actions. We will make a comeback."

The meeting was chaired by party president Dr George Chan Hong Nam and there were many angry and gloomy faces and loud voices during the party's emergency meeting. Two central working committee (CWC) members, speaking on condition of anonymity, said as expected the top party leadership could never acknowledge Taib's leadership as a major contributing factor to the party's disastrous outing.

"We discussed everything except the Taib issue," one of them said. "They are all talking rubbish. Many of them are hypocrites."' Observers have noted that the party could be heading for more troubles, if many angry members want to get into the real issues that caused the party's big loss.

The other component parties, including Taib's PBB, are not without some internal problems too. Even within PBB, there are the obvious factions between a group supporting deputy president Abang Johari bin Tun Openg and another group supporting senior vice-president Adenan Satem.

Another PBB leader seen keenly interested to push himself foreward is party treasurer Awang Tengah Ali Hassan.

Further, on the party's long-term position within the Malay/Melanau community, in at least three Malay/Melanau constituencies, there will be questions as to why PBB incumbent Dr Wahbi Junaidi almost lost in Saribas to PKR's Abang Zulkifli Abang Engkeh, by winning in the narrowest of margin (94 votes).

PBB leaders must be wondering why in Beting Maro the sole PAS candidate Alem Din polled nearly 2000 votes against the incumbent and state assistant minister Bolhassan Di's 2794. Is PAS making new inroads into Beting Maro? Then there's Sadong Jaya, a 80% Malay/Melanau seat, where PKR's Piee Ling polled nearly 2000 votes against the PBB incumbent Datuk Wan Wahab Wan Sanusi's 2715 votes.

In many Dayak areas, the opposition candidates didn't do too badly, indicating a definite vote swing away from the BN. These areas included Batang Ai, Ba'kelalan,Tamin, Krian, Tarat, Batu Danau and Belaga.

Sweet victory for MDC

The BN lost in Ngemah to an Independent Gabriel Adit Demong, who resigned from SPDP after he was not selected as BN candidate. He was so confident of victory that he was back in Kuching on the night of counting. But this battle is seen as more as a result of internal problems with the BN rather than an inroad made by the opposition. In fact the Snap candidate Richard Lias, formerly a PBB branch chairperson, did badly, polling less than 400 votes in a predominantly Iban constituency.

Perhaps the sweetest victory was in Engkilili where the yet-to-be-registered Malaysian Dayak Congress (MDC) pro tem deputy president Dr Jonical Rayong Ngipa beat Supp's Jonathan Krai Pilo with a 426-vote majority, inspite of the awesome machinery of the BN. In 2001, Rayong lost by a few hundred votes to Supp's Toh Heng San who was not picked to stand again this time in order to make way for an Iban in this predominantly Iban seat.

Except for urban areas, which are predominantly Chinese, the vote swing could either be a temporary phenomenom or it could continue into the next election.

The factor may not just be Taib, who has been in office for more 25 years as chief minister and who was sworn in again for his sixth term on May 21 after leading the BN to another major victory.

The trend could be a reflection of the growing voice against the increasingly-entrenched system already in place and manifested, according to popular perception, with unbridled corruption, cronyism, nepotism, greed and self-aggrandisement.

On the other hand, the voter swing to the opposition could be the beginning of an evolution of a credible political party alternative that could one day take over from the BN. Will DAP find common ground to work together with PKR, Snap and other like-minded opposition groups?

This is a question some academics and political scientists are asking. It depends a lot, according to most political analysts, on how the present credible opposition line-up representing a combination of urban and rural voters as well as active opposition politicians outside the state assembly are going to perform after the many surprises of the just-concluded state elections.

As this is almost certain to be Taib's last term as chief minister, Parliamentary Opposition Leader Lim Kit Siang said in Sarawak recently Taib may behave in the same way as Dr Mahathir Mohamad in his last few years as prime minister to try and implement as many mega projects as possible.

The penchant for such mega projects, including the loss-making state-owned wafer foundry 1st Silicon (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, the RM300m new state assembly buiding, the upcoming RM400m new Sarawak Convention Centre, is not lost on many people and could easily be one of the reasons that have contributed to the slip in voter support, especially in urban areas, for the BN.

With the implementation of the Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP) projects in Sarawak, will the government award the big infrastructure projects to the same group of people, besides the many of the state-funded projects estimated to cost a couple of bilion ringgits over the next five years?

Taib remains in the good books of the federal leaders, including Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and his deputy Najib Tun Razak who came to Sarawak to campaign vigorously for the BN. He has delivered many parliamentary seats and the BN is still very much in control in Sarawak, one of the most important states to the Federal Government as far as contribution to the national coffers is conferned, with its oil and gas revenue.

Contrary to what some quarters claim that Taib's control may be slipping, he is still very much in control not only in PBB (and can decide on his own who shoud take over from him when he steps down) but the other component parties, including Supp. Now he wants the two Dayak-based parties PRS and SPDP to merge after the elections, in an attempt to bring Iban politically under a single party).

But it is believed he may go further with political party consolidation that will involve PBB and the new emerged entity to pave the way for the eventual entry of Umno to Sarawak.

There does not seem to be anything for the moment standing in the way of that happening. Such a move is not unnecessarily something that is less appealing even to the present Dayak opposition groups who see direct intervention by the federal government as a way out of their present economicand political plight, after watching helplessly the de-registration of Snap and Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS), a move they say Taib could have prevented if he wanted to.

Therefore, a drop in popular votes is Taib's least worry, as the winning principles based on the first to past the post seems to ensure, at least in the context of Sarawak party politics, the BN can always be expected to secure a strong majority, which is necessary for any amendment to the constitution.

And Taib's BN has got its strong mandate renewed for another five years.

TONY THIEN is malaysiakini's Sarawak-based stringer