Pakatan Harapan was left with only 102 seats in the Dewan Rakyat after 26 MPs from Bersatu and 11 MPs from PKR quit the coalition.

President Muhyiddin Yassin today announced that Bersatu has left the coalition while the 11 MPs from PKR comprise of Azmin Ali and his followers.

However, this does not create a clear path for Harapan's many opponents to form a new government.

Malaysiakini's simulation of different possible scenarios showed that a coalition made of the likely partners is short of the 112 seats required to form the majority in the Dewan Rakyat.

For example, if Bersatu and the Azmin faction join forces with Umno and PAS, this coalition like-minded partners will only secure 94 seats.

If the group expands to include all Sabah and Sarawak parties, this new coalition will be able to form a new government with a comfortable majority of 126 seats.

It will be even more comfortable with the inclusion of MIC and MCA's three MPs, bringing the number up to 129.

However, it is an unlikely scenario as it would force the likes of Gabungan Bersatu Sabah and Gabungan Parti Sarawak to link arms with PAS, despite their ideological differences.

Without PAS, the coalition is down to just 111 MPs, one MP short of forming a majority.

To boost numbers, they could court more PKR MPs or some of Amanah's MPs cross over, but this scenario cannot be simulated as there is no indication of likely defections.

Similarly, it is assumed in the simulation that no DAP MPs will leave Pakatan Harapan.

What now, since no one has a clear majority?

The simulation points to a "hung parliament" because no political parties nor coalitions have the majority in the Dewan Rakyat.

If the parties are unable to negotiate and form a coalition, the prime minister may advise the Agong to dissolve Parliament, paving way for a snap election.

However, the ruler may exercise his discretion to refuse the prime minister’s advice and instruct the political parties to negotiate a compromise.