analysis

The widely-expected Keadilan and PAS victory in at least one or two seats in the predominantly Malay-Muslim heartland failed to materialise in Sarawak's eighth state elections yesterday.

The two peninsula-based opposition parties had brought in their top guns and complete campaign armoury to try and dislodge Sarawak Barisan Nasional's Malay leaders, especially in the urban and suburban Malay seats, in and around state capital Kuching.

Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu's (PBB) Malay leaders in Kuching, led by deputy president and state tourism minister Abang Johari Tun Openg, managed to ward off the challenge in Satok, Pantai Damai, Semariang, Tupong and Demak Laut, although Keadilan had eaten into PBB's shares of the popular votes.

Abang Johari, apparently the main target, had his majority reduced by half in the face of a determined challenge from Keadilan Sarawak youth leader Zulrusdi Mohd Hol.

Even the presence of Keadilan national leader Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail and other top leaders, including many of their charismatic leaders and fiery speakers, could not move the majority of Kuching's Malays over to the opposition side.

Big guns fail to impress

But an interesting observation was the somewhat low turnout in Abang Johari's Satok constituency, indicating that perhaps a large number of Malays in the constituency who might not have agreed with Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud's BN, preferred to stay at home and not vote, instead of giving their votes to the opposition.

Even the presence of top PAS leaders, including Kelantan Menteri Besar Nik Aziz Nik Mat and Terengganu Menteri Besar Abdul Hadi Awang, failed to make an impression.

However, while Keadilan candidates contesting in the five Malay seats polled respectably well, the rest did not, with 11 of their 25 candidates losing their deposits, as did one of the three PAS candidates.

PAS had been expected to do well and even cause an upset in either Beting Maro or Sadong Jaya.

But as it turned out, their candidates fared well below expectations, indicating the rural and coastal Malays were not ready for PAS' style of politics, seen as largely based on expounding on the virtues of Islam.

In the rest of the 22 PBB Malay seats, Taib's candidates from BN not only won but also did so with significantly higher majorities.

Crushing defeat

The crushing defeat of Keadilan and PAS has raised questions about the parties' future in Sarawak, even though PAS leaders at national leaders have said the fight will go on.

Keadilan leaders have expressed disappointment, wondering what had gone wrong when they had thought a number of seats were considered as already good in the pockets in the last few days of campaigning.

Many political observers were also proved wrong, after they predicted at least 10 BN seats would be in danger of falling to the opposition and independent candidates.

As expected too, except for Meluan (which was won by an Iban Independent), the Dayaks returned all BN's candidates, many with also significantly higher majorities, making most Independents, including those from Abang Abu Bakar's ABU group, to lose their deposits.

Meanwhile, the Chinese-based Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP) gained back the much-touted Bukit Assek and Pelawan in Sibu and managed to retain Padungan.

However, it failed to hold on to Kidurong, which SUPP leaders had earlier admitted was a problem due partly to their candidate Michael Sim's personality.

In the end, the BN won all but two of the 62 seats in the Sarawak Legislative Assembly. This was a net gain of two, compared with its performance in the last elections. A thumping victory indeed.