DAP's departure: what now?
What still surprises and puzzles many, including some DAP members and supporters, is the timing of the decision.
Why didn't DAP quit BA before its party assembly last month? Or why not immediately after it? Why not wait until the Sarawak state election is over? Why in the midst of electoral campaigning in Sarawak? These questions would certain give plenty of room for conspiracy theories.
Umno and Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad are clearly elated by the pullout because it appears that BA no longer has a 'Chinese' partner that can mobilise the critical and strategic Chinese votes for PAS and Keadilan/PRM.
Their joy is based on the assumption that all Chinese oppositionists and opposition supporters are loyal to DAP, and that DAP has absolute command over their voting behaviour, pattern and preference.
New problems for MCA, Gerakan
Meanwhile, MCA and Gerakan, of course, have to pretend to be as happy and as satisfied as Umno and Mahathir. However, if we are discerning enough, we could surely detect a sense of worry and anxiety behind the smiles of the two party presidents, Dr Ling Liong Sik and Dr Lim Keng Yaik respectively.
It is not very difficult to understand; after the break-up with PAS and exit from BA, MCA and Gerakan have to find new issues to attack DAP, and new issues that are detrimental to DAP and useful for MCA and Gerakan are really rare nowadays. Thus, the attack line now is - as expected and anticipated - that by going in and out BA, DAP has lost its credibility. But the propagandistic value of this line is not very durable.
Moreover, DAP now could theoretically concentrate on Chinese issues and constituencies, and attack MCA and Gerakan on a whole gamut of issues without any constraints. In other words, DAP has regained it freedom of action.
Worse still, MCA members and supporters who dislike PAS, but hate Gerakan more, can now vote for DAP where Gerakan contests against DAP; similarly, Gerakan members and supporters who dislike PAS but also hate MCA can vote for DAP in constituencies fought between MCA and DAP, all with a clear conscience.
Of course, MCA and Gerakan members and supporters who dislike Umno and Mahathir could vote for the multi-ethnic Keadilan, as shown in the Lunas by-election in Mahathir's home turf, Kedah.
Lessons from Lunas
Indeed, Lunas offers great moral lessons not only for Umno and the ruling Barisan Nasional, but also DAP.
The battle of Lunas clearly showed that there is now a powerful third force in between MCA/Gerakan and DAP which could defeat both the old ruling party and old opposition.
For the forgetful, Lunas witnessed a massive swing of Chinese vote against BN in the midst of a DAP boycott in the election campaign. A Malay candidate, Saifuddin Nasution of Keadilan, won with massive Chinese backing. DAP is no longer the monopolistic supplier of Chinese oppositional votes.
To the younger generation of Malaysians, the outcome of the Lunas by-election was really new, novel, epoch-making and revolutionary. But to the older generation and young historians of Malaysian politics, Lunas was just a deja vu.
On 10 May, 1969, the incumbent young Umno member of parliament for Kota Setar was defeated because the Chinese voted for a PAS candidate, the late Yusuf Rawa, who later became president of PAS. That young Malay extremist was none other than the author of The Malay Dilemma, Mahathir. The Malay Dilemma was then published in Singapore but banned in Malaysia.
The battles of Kota Setar in 1969 and Lunas in 1999 showed that Chinese are not inherently or naturally anti-PAS. Given capable, persuasive, credible and trustworthy Chinese organisers and leaders, strong party organisation and good candidates, the Chinese could be induced to vote for Malay oppositionists like the late Yusuf Rawa and the young Saifuddin Nasution.
Other factors
Take, for example, the 1999 election results: while DAP Lim Kit Siang and Karpal Singh lost their seats, allegedly because of DAP's association with PAS, DAP's Leong Ngah Ngah who is a simple but amicably people-friendly man, was returned with an increased majority in his Chinese-predominant state constituency, Triang, in central Pahang. His Chinese supporters did not seem to be wary of PAS nor its Islamic state agenda.
In the same general elections, a 26-year-old English-educated Chinese who graduated in law from the International Islamic University, Fong Po Kuan wrested the parliamentary seat of Batu Gajah in Perak from BN, which was lost to MCA in 1995 when there was no pact between DAP and PAS.
The 1999 general elections also saw a PAS candidate, Dr Safiyie Abu Bakar defeating an MCA candidate in the state constituency of Kajang in Selangor, which has a very significant number of Chinese voters.
Thus, while the alliance or association with PAS certainly caused some DAP leaders to lose some Chinese votes, other factors could also contribute to the defeat, because there are examples of DAP leaders who actually won with increased majority, and of PAS leaders who won with Chinese support.
Political defeats or victories, like those in military, financial and economic operations, are never monocausal, but multicausal, both external as well as internal.
Potential danger
Now that DAP has severed its ties with PAS and BA, it should have theoretically regained its freedom of action, but there is a potential danger.
After believing for a few years that the defeats of Lim Kit Siang and Karpal Singh were solely caused by the party's association with PAS, DAP leaders, members and supporters may now conclude that without the 'burden' of PAS, it should win handsomely in the next elections.
Internal party weaknesses are, as usual, not discussed honestly, addressed productively and solved practically.
Meanwhile, DAP can no longer ban its former leaders from joining Keadilan or PRM. These two parties, like DAP, have also regained their freedom of action. And as DAP could field candidates in any constituencies it likes, so could Keadilan and PRM.
Reciprocity is one of the true defining marks of the secular culture of modernity.
JAMES WONG WING ON, chief analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia, is a former Member of Parliament (1990-1995) and a former columnist for the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily. He read political science and economics at the Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. While in Sin Chew, he and a team of journalists won the top awards of Malaysian Press Institute (MPI) for 1998 and 1999.
