A cursory glance of the financial pages of any major newspaper or news magazine will tell you, by any measure, that the world economy is in what many market economists will no doubt call an unprecedented boom.

Well, they can say that because since 2001-2002, it has been exceptional only because there is no other basis of comparison to measure the claim at this time. A no-brainer? Expect economists to state the obvious.

But since World War II and the second-half of the last century, there was the 'long boom'. It got its name because it started soon after the war ended.

With the reconstruction of nations and economies affected by the scourge of war, the world economy travelled along very nicely - so nicely that it brought enormous wealth to the Western world and, to be sure, to the tiger and dragon economies of East Asia.

Hard to believe that there were then basket cases - China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Burma and the Indo-Chinese states. China and India have today become industrial behemoths.

After 26 years of pro-market reforms, China is widely considered the world's lowest-cost manufacturing juggernaut. Barely surprising, given the pittance Chinese labour is paid, and why more and more exporting firms are scurrying out of their old production sites for the Middle Kingdom. The other countries, though, have more or less remained basket cases.

A cursory look at the world's stock market performances hammers home the point: the world economy is at a seemingly unstoppable buoyant phase, going up just about everywhere. No doubt more new wealth is being created for those who take speculative risks.

All this is against a backdrop where terrorism is spreading and Islamophobia is rising in the West; US policy blunders on the Middle East have cause a carnage in world oil prices; Washington's destabilisation agenda in Syria and Iran is proceeding; and there is renewed threat of nuclear proliferation by Iran, Pakistan, India and North Korea.

Economies safer now

Still, this upward trajectory looks set to continue. Whiffs of bubble economies reincarnated in the last year or two - everything from property to financial markets, arcing from the western seaboard of America to eastern edges of Asia - are being shoved aside.

Does this ring a bell? Or is it mere aberration? It happened in the late 1980s and again in late 1990s. Remember Asia's miracle economies being pulped by their loopy policies that were clearly unsustainable? And what about the excesses of conglomerates like Enron? Could it happen again any time soon?

The benchmark of the last bust was the one that carved up Asian economies in spectacular domino effect in the late 1990s. It took them a while to climb out of the rut, much of which was of their own making. What saved them from being completely flogged was the turn-around in the US economy two years after the dotcom hype on the Nasdaq crashed in 2000.

In addition, the hugely depreciated Asian currencies, along with China's import-pull, saved their export-dependent hides. All of them.

Today, minus China, Asia's average gross domestic product (GDP) is around 4 percent. Add China and it's at least 0.5-0.75 percent more. And with the pull of the US import-sucking economy, add another 0.5-0.75 percent. That s an annual average of around 5.5 percent.

Not bad after the implosion, but, as long as it doesn't get to the ridiculous growth rates of the 1990s, Asia and the world economy should be safe from another collapse.

But the herd on stock markets is back, many returning with old designs, presenting renewed dangers to the national and the world economies. Central bankers are closely watching that speculative excesses don't get out of hand again. Inflation targeting is still the central banks' favoured monetary policy tool.
But finance ministries are having a tough time trying to find the equilibrium with fiscal policy while balancing vested class interests. It's the old story. There are winners and losers in all economies.

And as vested class interests - domestic and international - regain the policy upper hand in those national economies in which they are heavily invested, expect the gulf between rich and poor to widen even more. With this, expect political dissent to rise - especially if national economies again go pear-shape, if the world economy sags, protractedly.

Three safeguards

But here are three reasons why the world economy won't sink - yet. Asian governments have learnt from having their fingers burnt in their 1990s' policy madness to never again pursue unsustainable growth targets.

With the exception of China, of course. And that's one economy to watch for boom and bust cycles in this first half-century. China's banking sector remains in a parlous state, with no political will by Beijing to take real reforms. And there's plenty of class rather than ideological politics behind the Chinese leaders' lack of nerve.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve Board will closely monitor not only the underlying inflation rate in the American economy; it will also be looking out for the return of the Dutch tulipmania or variants thereof. But it can relax, because the dot-com fizz of old has fizzled. We'll never see that sort of hype again in our lifetime.

Finally, world oil prices will squeeze threats of GDPs racing away again. In fact, as the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries (Opec) dithers over production and pricing policy, because of in-fighting and pressure from Washington for Opec to guarantee unhindered supply at affordable prices, plus shrinking global oil reserves, all production - sooner rather than later - will have to find new, alternative technologies to continue producing for the world market.

However, all these policy shifts will come with costs. Let's not dance around such potentialities. Policies that continue to favour the rich over the poor in terms of wealth distribution, policies that reform national economies, that marginalise the weak, the poor and the unskilled workforce, policies that continue to produce uneven education and job opportunities for all its people, policies that are racially motivated, and other dastardly policies, have, can and will breed more political dissent, not on a small but mass scale.

If this is still the age of reason, it is reason enough to cut the baloney and hypocrisy of the past and for political leaders to show backbone and candour to build a better tomorrow for all and not just a few. But I won't be holding my breath.
MANJIT BHATIA, an academician and writer, is also research director of AsiaRisk, a political, economic and risk analysis consultancy in Australia. He specialises in international economics and politics, with a focus on the Asia-Pacific.