(IPS) analysis

- Would-be partners in a US-led crusade against terrorism, especially Muslim and Middle Eastern states, face a political minefield.

Efforts to assemble a coalition for what leaders here say will be a war against terrorism in general, not just the perpetrators of Tuesday's attacks, are aimed primarily against Afghanistan-based Osama bin Laden; his host, the Taliban ruling militia; and the loose international network said to be associated with his Al Qaeda group.

It may be relatively easy for Europe and Russia to rally behind the United States - they are unlikely to be asked to put their own territory in the direct line of fire. Yet, even they have said their support is qualified, not a carte blanche for President George W Bush.

China has pledged support but its commitment will be weighed against lingering popular resentment over the 1999 bombing of China's embassy in Belgrade by US warplanes and the Apr 1 collision between a US reconnaissance plane and a Chinese fighter.

The Taliban's Muslim and Middle Eastern neighbours, however, are at a particularly difficult juncture. When the world's sole superpower demands to separate its friends from its foes, few want to end up on the wrong side of the ledger. But getting on Washington's right side while keeping a lid on domestic and regional volatility - a concern not only for these countries but also for Washington - will not be easy.

Religious zealots

US officials have highlighted Pakistan's close political and military ties to the Taliban. It is one of only three countries to recognise the Islamist militants' claim to be Afghanistan's government. The other two are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Islamabad's connections to the Taliban and other armed Islamist factions could prove useful in making any US action in the region less hazardous, officials here say. Washington has delivered a list of demands for Pakistani cooperation.

Pakistan has vowed 'unstinting support' and appears anxious to restore normal relations with Washington. Even reformist politicians, diplomats, and military officers not partial to the Taliban, however, have expressed fear that if they provide open assistance for military operations against bin Laden or the Taliban, religious zealots within Pakistan's borders - so-called jihadis , or proponents of holy war - would launch a violent revolt.

Pakistan tried earlier this month to limit the domestic political and fund-raising activities of jihadi groups active in Kashmir. The effort was called off after only one day, signaling the political dominance of Islamist groups.

Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, locked in a fight with Israel - the staunchest US ally in the Middle East - was quick to pledge compliance in helping track down the perpetrators of Tuesday's attacks for fear that the Jewish state could win greater US backing for its military crackdown against Palestinians.

Just recompense

Secretary of State Colin Powell said Wednesday that Washington would take a stronger hand in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but has not elaborated. Israel has launched a military offensive against Palestinian-controlled territory that has killed at least a dozen people, including a nine-year-old girl, in the past four days.

The virtual absence of US and European condemnation to these offensives is likely to reinforce antipathy toward Washington among many Palestinians and marginalised and politically restive communities throughout the Middle East. They see Tuesday's terror attacks as just recompense for US refusal, at a minimum, to halt the use of US-supplied military power against Palestinian civilians.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdul-Illah Khatib evoked those concerns Thursday, saying: "We will need to exert effort to draw lines between the issues - terrorism and the struggle for independence on the part of different people. It is not an easy thing.''

Egypt, a regional heavyweight and the most populous nation in the Arab world, is in dire need of the US$1.2 billion in aid it receives yearly - a sum second only to Israel's annual handout of US$2.3 billion.

The country's relatively liberal Islamic scholars, at the pre-eminent al-Azhar University, have long been at odds with the Taliban. Earlier this year, they - along with more conservative Saudi Arabian clerics - condemned the Afghan regime for demolishing Buddhist statues.

Two of bin Laden's closest associates in Afghanistan are wanted in Egypt: Refai Taha, leader of the region's most militant group, the Gamaa al-Islamiya, and Ayman al-Zawahri, leader of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad group, an equally violent group that was responsible for the assassination of former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in broad daylight in 1981.

Both Taha and Zawahri still command a following in Egypt, the Gulf and, some experts say, Europe.

American 'lackeys'

Nevertheless, even Cairo has misgivings. President Hosni Mubarak's government - battling domestic Islamist groups while using the shield of counter-terrorism to strike at political opponents - often has complained that Western countries offer easy asylum to individuals convicted by its military courts of terrorist crimes.

In addition, Mubarak and his counterparts throughout the Arab world will be loathe to do anything to expose themselves to further accusations, already leveled by Islamist and other political dissenters, that they are 'lackeys' of the United States.

Arab leaders' dilemma is 'to be able to prove to the US that they are sincere friends without creating too much resentment among their own public,' said Walid Kazziha, a political scientist at the American University in Cairo.

They will provide human intelligence - a lack of which is acknowledged to have contributed to the US inability to forestall Tuesday's attacks - but will stop short of military involvement, Kazziha and analysts here said - particularly since the likely targets, once again, would be fellow Muslims.

Libya and Sudan have been bombed by a similarly aroused United States. Their leaders' statements to date - sympathy, not solidarity - suggest they do not want to stick their heads above the firing line.

Syria and Iran - also the targets of US ire - also were swift to condemn the attacks and distance themselves from the bloody assault.

Different effort

Iran, a predominantly Shia Muslim country, has protested mistreatment of Shias by the Taliban, which professes an austere brand of Sunni Islam. Given the history of US-Iran relations, chances that Iran would take part in an international coalition are broadly considered next to nil. But Tehran is unlikely to hinder the US-led crusade.

Algeria, Morocco, and Yemen are generally considered too inward looking to do anything but go along with the mainstream.

That leaves oil-rich Saudi Arabia and its satellite Gulf emirates - all of whom virtually owe the very existence of their governing regimes to US troops stationed on Saudi soil and in the nearby Persian Gulf.

Officials there have been careful to note that Washington's current effort to draw together an international coalition to provide legitimacy, intelligence, logistical backing, and active military support is different from its apparently similar alliance-building after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.

Then, the sovereignty of a neighbour had been violated and even Syria - long a US foe - joined the coalition to repel Iraqi troops.