news analysis Few were surprised when Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (PBB) elected representatives decided at their meeting yesterday that their party leader, Abdul Taib Mahmud, will contest in a new state constituency.

Taib himself did not attend the meeting. Instead he asked his first deputy president, Alfred Jabu anak Numpang, who is one of two deputy chief ministers and a strong supporter of Taib, to chair the session.

Jabu later told reporters that the PBB members of parliament and state assemblymen were unanimous in wanting Taib to stand in Balingian, thus ending months of speculation that the chief minister would not contest in Asajaya, a state seat which he has held for four successive terms since 1981.

For months, since talk of fresh state elections began, signs on the ground in Asajaya appeared to be increasingly unfriendly to Taib. Reporters who covered many functions or events noticed the strangely lukewarm response to his or other PBB party leaders' presence.

There was even talk that some villagers sought to block a road when he tried to visit the area.

One reporter recalled that at one function which Taib arrived at rather late for his speech, the crowd, comprising mainly Malays, started to leave, leaving mostly civil servants behind.

Taib was said to have taken all this rather badly, and it is no secret that rather than meet his challenger and political nemeis Abang Abu Bakar face-to-face, he would prefer to forsake Asajaya and move to one of the four predominantly Melanau constituencies considered 'safe' for him.

Majority reduced

He has also not forgotten that during the last parliamentary elections, his challenger Keadilan Youth state chief Zulrusdi Mohd Hol shocked him by polling more than 5,000 votes, reducing Taib's majority in the Kota Samarahan parliamentary constituency substantially.

"He took it quite badly," said a party leader close to the PBB leader.

"He just couldn't believe that after doing so much to bring development to Asajaya, so many voters in that constituency would turn against him. It is a personal slight and he is one who does not take such things lightly."

According to another senior PBB leader who asked not to be identified, it would therefore be 'less embarrassing' for Taib to move away from Asajaya to a 'safe' seat in the Melanau heartland in the lower Rejang area of Sarawak.

Taib is expected to win easily in Balingian, a seat that has about 70 percent Melanau voters.

Earlier, it was speculated that he might go to Dalat, a seat to be vacated by PBB vice-president and Agriculture Minister Effendi Norwawi.

In reporting the PBB elected members' decision yesterday, the English-language Sarawak Tribune published a letter from Taib to Jabu indicating his preference for a new seat and the reasons for it.

Those who are familiar with the old politics of Sarawak agree that the contents of Taib's letter show that he had always wanted to stand in the Melanau-dominated lower Rejang area.

When his uncle and the then chief minister Abdul Rahman Yakub brought him back to Sarawak in 1981, despite some internal objections from PBB, Taib was supposed to have stood in what is now known as Serdeng.

Political nemesis

But according to reports, the then incumbent was reluctant to stand aside, and instead a senior PBB women leader Sharifah Mordiah offered her seat to Taib in Asajaya.

Taib was first appointed a state minister and later succeeded his uncle - who was by then his political nemesis - as chief minister in March 1981 when Abdul Rahman was made governor of Sarawak, a ceremonial post, by the Federal government.

Almost without exception, political analysts say Taib would still have won had he decided to carry on in Asajaya.

"Even Abang Abu Bakar will not be able to dislodge him from his seat. But Taib will not have it if his majority is going to be drastically slashed," one said.

In an interview last week, former PBB deputy leader Abang Abu Bakar, who had fallen out with Taib, said that the chief minister was 'running scared' after learning that he will be challenged by his (Abang Abu Bakar's) group of independents in Asajaya.

"Yes, there is going to be a great element of risk," said another political analyst.

"The bottom line is about winning, and in Taib's case it is about winning big. Balingian will be able to do that for him."

TONY THIEN is malaysiakini's Kuching correspondent.