Next week, as Asean foreign ministers meet in Vientiane, the biggest question of the day will be whether or not Burma will voluntarily defer its 2006-2007 chairmanship of Asean.

Never before in recent history has such a question, considered a "routine" matter provoked such controversy and pressure within and upon Asean, a regional body generally dismissed as being somewhat staid. Previously, what the US Secretary of State wore and sang during the concluding social evening was the highlight of the "Asean Week".

Without Condolezza Rice (and her diplomatic or entertainment capabilities) to grace Laos next week, it is no wonder that the Burma "will they or won't they" show now constitutes the headline act.

The past few weeks have witnessed a concerted campaign to persuade Burma's State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) to voluntarily defer their chairmanship of Asean, scheduled to begin mid-2006. Government leaders from Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore and the Asean Secretary-General Ong Keng Yong have all, unprecedentedly, weighed in with predictions that Burma is expected to step aside for the sake of the region.

Western governments, particularly the USA, have hinted that their participation at top Asean meetings may be downgraded under a Burma chair, and Ms Rice's absence may be a foretaste of that. Asean legislators have crossed party and national boundaries to protest the Burmese chair on grounds that the regime has consistently failed to deliver on promises concerning human rights and democracy made to Asean.

Rangoon has responded with stunning silence. The rumours and speculation emanating from Rangoon indicate that the SPDC, led by Senior General Than Shwe, will tough it out and insist on their turn at the Asean chair. Than Shwe would rather chair an Asean depleted by boycotts and/or downgraded attendance, than not chair at all.

Political survival

Senior General Than Shwe's political survival may depend significantly on the Asean chair. Than Shwe, who has been striving to consolidate his hold over the notorious regime, may be seen as a weak leader if Burma defers its turn at the chair.

Despite the perception that Than Shwe's hold on Burma is stronger after October's systemic purge against former Prime Minister Khin Nyunt (photo) and his associates, the brutal Burmese dictatorship is becoming increasingly brittle.

Than Shwe loyalists who were rewarded with senior posts after the purge are feeling demoralized and worried. The return on their "investment", has not been forthcoming amidst the rapidly shrinking economy. The deferral of the Asean chair would further compound the fear that there will not be enough business deals for everyone to get their cut.

Rangoon-based diplomats have been complaining that ministries have essentially been paralyzed because new cabinet members dare not advocate for much-needed reforms for fear of being seen as disloyal while others simply have no idea of how to move forward.

The regime is running desperately low on foreign exchange reserves. In May the SPDC urged the tourism industry to deposit their foreign exchange in local banks which underwent a massive liquidity crisis in 2003. The population were also sternly warned that it was illegal for them to possess any foreign currency. Citizens cannot take more than US$100 out of the country without permission.

The regime was also unable to deliver a proposed pay hike for civil servants scheduled for April 1. The cruel April Fool's joke has compounded plunging business confidence, with many businesspeople becoming openly derisive of the cabinet's ability to halt the economic slide.

Shows of force

Meanwhile, ethnic groups in ceasefire arrangements with the SPDC are unhappy that key leaders have been detained, and in two cases, charged with treason. Instead of a genuine political dialogue, the general embarked on shows of force to compel submission, a strategy that the ethnics have not found endearing.

It is no wonder that key sections of Burmese society now feel almost nostalgic for the good old days of Khin Nyunt, who led the much-feared Military Intelligence, because profit and a little negotiation was still possible then.

And it is no wonder that Senior General Than Shwe (photo), notorious for his imperial aspirations, has perpetuated a campaign to lock in the perception that his grip remains firm.

The Asean chair is an important part of this psychological strategy. Emperor Than Shwe needs the chair as his only chance to prove to his subjects that he has the respect of his peers. The fear of being seen as weak trumps any consideration for his neighbours.

Emperor Than Shwe, having presided over the massive political and economic deterioration of Burma, is now ready to export his brand of leadership to the region.

DEBBIE STOTHARD, a longtime Burma analyst, is Coordinator of the Alternative Asean Network on Burma (Altsean-Burma). A former journalist and academic, she has been actively supporting Burma's pro-democracy movement since 1988.