PBS win in Likas on the cards
A number of factors have been cited as favourable for a PBS win, even though on the surface Likas is tilted towards a Malay/Muslim majority with non-Malays constituting no more than 30 percent of the 26,000 voters.
One is the respect that PBS president and former chief minister Joseph Pairin Kitingan still commands among the people, especially the Kadazandusun community. Another is the apparent growing disappointment of the Chinese community with the failure of the ruling BN to make good on many of promises they made after they won control of the state government from the PBS.
In particular, increasingly cynical remarks are being heard about the 'much talk and little action' stance taken by the government in dealing with the problem of the large number of illegal immigrants from the Philippines and Indonesia in Sabah.
"What they are also unhappy about is that when the bigwigs from KL come to Kota Kinabalu in the buildup for the upcoming by-election, they all seem to head for Pulau Gaya first before going anywhere else," one veteran political observer in Kota Kinabalu told malaysiakini.
Pulau Gaya, just across the bay from Kota Kinabalu, forms part of the enlarged Likas constituency which changed from a Chinese to Malay/Muslim majority area after the last electoral boundary re-delineation exercise.
"Perhaps they should visit the constituents on the mainland first," the same observer remarked, adding that clearly the mainlanders were given less priority by some of these bigwigs "who were probably taking the Chinese voters and others for granted."
Phantom voters
The BN's best chance, however, of retaining the seat is still through Sabah Progressive Party (Sapp) president Yong Teck Lee who was the assemblyman elected for the constituency until the June 8 decision by Elections Court Judge Muhammad Kamil Awang who nullified the result of the 1999 state elections for Likas on the grounds that the electoral roll was padded with phantom voters.
More than 500 names have since been struck off the rolls, but PBS has said that the Elections Commission (EC) has still not done enough to clean it and it has gone to court to try and stop the by-election for which the nomination date has been fixed for tomorrow.
Ordinarily, in a predominantly Muslim constituency, the BN would have little difficulty in winning. But this time, according to another seasoned political observer, the entry of opposition Parti Keadilan could make a difference.
Parti Keadilan's participation could tip the scale and make a PBS win look more than likely if the Chinese voters decide that it is going to make little difference if they don't opt for the BN this time round.
"Development will still take place anyway in Kota Kinabalu," political analysts say.
Visits by some BN leaders to Kampung Gaya in recent weeks have also been to remind the voters there of the risks should they decide not to support the BN. According to one political commentator in Kota Kinabalu, they have been told in no uncertain terms they the government might move them away to the mainland if they did not support the BN.
BN worry
PBS is likely to field Dr E L Chong who is a doctor in private practice in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah's capital. This would be his second attempt after failing to win the seat in the last state elections of 1999.
Although he lost to Sapp's Yong, who remains a popular politician among both Chinese and Malay/Muslim voters, Chong garnered a respectable number of votes, and was even ahead of another former chief minister Harris Salleh.
Also complicating matters for the BN this time around, is the claim by Sabah Umno who have staked a claim to contest in Likas on the grounds that it is Malay/Muslim majority area.
But BN leader Dr Mahathir Mohammad has ruled out Umno contesting and has sent word through BN secretary-general Mohamad Rahmat that a SAPP man will contest the seat.
Barring any court orders, most observers feel that Yong Teck Lee will be the BN's first choice, with the next choice being Phillip Yong, Sapp's secretary-general.
But this is not going to be an ordinary by-election. It has already generated a great deal of interest both within and outside Sabah.
The worry within the BN camp is that with Sabah Umno itself is divided into different camps ("There is the Salleh Keruak camp, the Musa Aman camp and the Osu Sukam camp," said one veteran journalist in Kota Kinabalu), this could work to the advantage of the opposition.
In addition to this, Keadilan's foray into Likas may well split the Muslim votes further and help the PBS cause, noted political observers.
TONY THIEN is a freelance writer based in Kuching.
