Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) senior vice-president Adenan Satem is keeping everyone guessing on whether he will take on incumbent Abang Johari Tun Openg for the deputy president post in the coming party assembly in September.

For the moment, the federal natural resources and environment minister is seen to be spending a lot of time in Sarawak and is being kept busy officiating at many of the party's divisional meetings and elections ahead of the party's triennial delegates assembly.

Although the party's supreme council has more or less decided there shall be no contest for the top posts - from president down to deputy president and senior vice-president - it seems that things may change nearer the date if Adenan and his supporters can have their way.

Adenan will be officiating at a joint meeting of the party's Lambir, Senadin and Piasau divisions in Miri on July 3 and, according to a party member, it will be interesting to observe how the divisional delegates will react to Adenan's overtures.

Lambir division is headed by one of the party's elected representative Aidan Wing, the state assemblyperson for Lambir who is seen as specifically hand-picked by Chief Minister and party president Abdul Taib Mahmud for the seat in the first place. Prior to joining politics, he was a bank manager.

Aidan, a Christian Melanau, is also seen as a rising star in PBB. He is the executive director of state-owned commercial aviation company, Hornbills Skyways.

Several of pro-Adenan divisions, including Tarat and Padungan, that met recently have already passed resolutions to tell the party to leave all party posts, except that of party president, open for contest.

Adenan should not, however, take for granted that delegates from friendly divisions will all go along with every elected representative behind him. "Look at what happened in the 1998 elections," a source close to both sides said.

Know the risks

Taib is said to have told top party leaders he would prefer a 'no contest' for the top posts as he would like to keep the party intact which he sees as crucial as he intends to stay for a while to see Sarawak through what has been described as the second wave of development.

And he is said to have also told them he would not stop a contest and that in the event of one, there will be a loser and everyone involved must therefore be aware of the risks.

The remarks were apparently directed at Johari and Adenan but it could also include others vying for other key posts, especially the vice president posts.

A party member said that on the surface, Adenan seems to have the edge but the Johari camp must never be underestimated.

He referred to the 1998 party elections when Johari, vying for the deputy president post in a three-cornered fight, secured less nominations than Adenan, and yet he secured the highest number of votes, sending Adenan, his nearest opponent, trailing by more than one hundred votes.

"Johari is never to be under-estimated," he said, adding that the response he has been getting in his recent visits to many party members throughout Sarawak is an indication that he has a lot of grassroots support.

Should the younger Johari wait?

The son of Sarawak's first-post Independence Governor the late Tun Abang Haji Openg, Johari is also known as an astute politician and a speaker that appeals a lot to kampong audience.

If the choice of Taib's successor as party president and chief minister has to boil down to the question of respect for party hierarchy, then it's difficult to see how Johari can give way unless there is a contest for the deputy president post.

Talk in some quarters is that Johari, who is still young and only 52, should give way to Adenan who is 10 years his senior, and that he still can wait to go up.

"There is no doubt Adenan is Taib's choice, but the difficulty is the party hierarchy if it is to be respected," a political observer said.

The bet is that unless Johari is prepared to stand aside, the alternative for Adenan is to go for the post, and this is something that Taib might want to avoid, if the after-effects within the party are going to turn out to be worst than 1998.

A Johari staunch supporter who is in the party's supreme council told malaysiakini recently: "If Adenan wants a contest we are ready for it too, but I can't see how this can happen unless the party's supreme council changes its decision about the no-contest for the top posts."

TONY THIEN is malaysiakini's stringer based in Kuching.