How unobjective polling leads to delusionary simulations
COMMENT Lim Kit Siang extends an olive branch to Abdul Hadi Awang. Rafizi Ramli’s polling outfit postulates some mildly bizarre scenarios which will result in a Pakatan Harapan GE win and a complete PAS wipeout. Iskandar Samad suggests that DAP and Amanah merge.
It’s been an interesting week for those who follow such things. Let’s try to examine each of these in turn - the first two today, and the third tomorrow.
I think Kit Siang’s overture to Hadi and PAS is both welcome and telling.
The first noteworthy aspect of this is the contrast with the DAP mainstream that is more aligned to the ‘kiblat’ of his son, Lim Guan Eng.
Guan Eng not only remains antagonistic to PAS, he was one of the key movers behind the breakup of Pakatan Rakyat. That Kit Siang had to explain that his offer was personal in nature rather than a party position suggests that some tension exists.
I think this difference of positions could be a good example of the differences between father and son, where they stand, and what their priorities may be.
Long-term wisdom vs short-term hotheadedness
Mine is of course merely one of many private, subjective speculations, but there is this feeling that the father has a bigger picture in mind, while the son has rather more limited horizons.
I think Kit Siang is willing to look the truth in the face: winning the next general election is hard enough with PAS on your side, and it is nigh impossible without it.
As an older, more measured and wiser statesman, who is perhaps preoccupied with his legacy and Malaysia’s future above all else, he is perhaps more willing to overlook petty squabbling, and seek out common ground in the quest for a better Malaysia for all.
Again, this is mere speculation, but it may be the case that younger men have rather different priorities.
If one is headstrong, egoistic, and already running a prosperous fiefdom - one that is in no danger of falling into enemy hands - then perhaps one is content to pander to a hardcore base, continue enjoying the golden goose, and not be overly bothered about making more national gains.
I’m certain it’s not that Guan Eng believes Pakatan Harapan can win the elections even with three-cornered fights against PAS, but rather that perhaps it is not important that they win the national elections. (Perhaps if retaining Penang was threatened, things would be different.)
A problematic poll
Kit Siang’s position seems to reflect an appreciation of just how difficult fighting three-cornered contests will be in the upcoming election. Certainly, he is qualified to say, having been through almost countless iterations of opposition blocs, and having seen first-hand what happens both when the opposition is splintered, and when it is united.
Of course, some are happy to revel in indulgent fantasy about how this may not be the case.
The first and most obvious problem about Rafizi’s poll is that it is Rafizi’s poll.
It feels like Donald Trump-level logic to believe that an organisation whose website’s front page (at time of writing) features Rafizi’s face six times, and his name eight, would make public any kind of polling data that did not conform to what Rafizi - an active, partisan politician, not an independent, objective analyst - wants the public to believe.
Even if we were to ignore that glaring problem, the conclusions made from the poll are perhaps more suited for fantasy and science fiction than they are for serious political analysis.
My personal favourite is the ‘simulation’ which ‘demonstrates’ how PAS can be wiped out completely in the next general election. To quote the Malaysiakini report:
“In this scenario, an I-CPI simulation found that Harapan and Bersatu would win 126 parliamentary seats, BN 96, while PAS would win zero seats.
“However, this outcome is dependent on several factors, namely, that half of those who did not vote in the previous election cast their ballots in favour of Harapan; Chinese voter support for the opposition coalition is at GE13 levels; and that they can win over 38 percent of PAS supporters.”
COMMENT Lim Kit Siang extends an olive branch to Abdul Hadi Awang. Rafizi Ramli’s polling outfit postulates some mildly bizarre scenarios which will result in a Pakatan Harapan GE win and a complete PAS wipeout. Iskandar Samad suggests that DAP and Amanah merge.
It’s been an interesting week for those who follow such things. Let’s try to examine each of these in turn - the first two today, and the third tomorrow.
I think Kit Siang’s overture to Hadi and PAS is both welcome and telling.
The first noteworthy aspect of this is the contrast with the DAP mainstream that is more aligned to the ‘kiblat’ of his son, Lim Guan Eng.
Guan Eng not only remains antagonistic to PAS, he was one of the key movers behind the breakup of Pakatan Rakyat. That Kit Siang had to explain that his offer was personal in nature rather than a party position suggests that some tension exists.
I think this difference of positions could be a good example of the differences between father and son, where they stand, and what their priorities may be.
Long-term wisdom vs short-term hotheadedness
Mine is of course merely one of many private, subjective speculations, but there is this feeling that the father has a bigger picture in mind, while the son has rather more limited horizons.
I think Kit Siang is willing to look the truth in the face: winning the next general election is hard enough with PAS on your side, and it is nigh impossible without it.
As an older, more measured and wiser statesman, who is perhaps preoccupied with his legacy and Malaysia’s future above all else, he is perhaps more willing to overlook petty squabbling, and seek out common ground in the quest for a better Malaysia for all.
Again, this is mere speculation, but it may be the case that younger men have rather different priorities.
If one is headstrong, egoistic, and already running a prosperous fiefdom - one that is in no danger of falling into enemy hands - then perhaps one is content to pander to a hardcore base, continue enjoying the golden goose, and not be overly bothered about making more national gains.
I’m certain it’s not that Guan Eng believes Pakatan Harapan can win the elections even with three-cornered fights against PAS, but rather that perhaps it is not important that they win the national elections. (Perhaps if retaining Penang was threatened, things would be different.)
A problematic poll
Kit Siang’s position seems to reflect an appreciation of just how difficult fighting three-cornered contests will be in the upcoming election. Certainly, he is qualified to say, having been through almost countless iterations of opposition blocs, and having seen first-hand what happens both when the opposition is splintered, and when it is united.
Of course, some are happy to revel in indulgent fantasy about how this may not be the case.
The first and most obvious problem about Rafizi’s poll is that it is Rafizi’s poll.
It feels like Donald Trump-level logic to believe that an organisation whose website’s front page (at time of writing) features Rafizi’s face six times, and his name eight, would make public any kind of polling data that did not conform to what Rafizi - an active, partisan politician, not an independent, objective analyst - wants the public to believe.
Even if we were to ignore that glaring problem, the conclusions made from the poll are perhaps more suited for fantasy and science fiction than they are for serious political analysis.
My personal favourite is the ‘simulation’ which ‘demonstrates’ how PAS can be wiped out completely in the next general election. To quote the Malaysiakini report:
“In this scenario, an I-CPI simulation found that Harapan and Bersatu would win 126 parliamentary seats, BN 96, while PAS would win zero seats.
“However, this outcome is dependent on several factors, namely, that half of those who did not vote in the previous election cast their ballots in favour of Harapan; Chinese voter support for the opposition coalition is at GE13 levels; and that they can win over 38 percent of PAS supporters.”
More, not less, voter apathy at this rate
Of these three postulations, only one has even the slightest resemblance to reality - that of sustained Chinese voter support for the opposition.
I cannot for the life of me imagine how half of the people who did not vote in GE13 would suddenly be inspired to vote in GE14.
GE13 saw what was arguably the strongest, most united, and most promising opposition bloc in Malaysia’s history.
It wasn’t perfect, but there was no question that it was relatively of one mind, operating as one unit. Anwar Ibrahim was clearly touted as candidate for prime minister; Pakatan Rakyat had demonstrated their abilities at the helm of three to four state governments; three-cornered fights were a rare anomaly.
Compare that to the opposition of today. ‘Fractured’ doesn’t even begin to describe the mess they are in.
Without a clear vision, and a united force to get behind, what is going to inspire a full half of the people who didn’t bother to vote in GE13 to come out in GE14?
1MDB? Dr Mahathir? I think the by-elections of recent times have demonstrated the rather lacklustre effects of those issues on the larger electorate - especially now, having been diluted over so much time.
If voting were tomorrow, I’d bet a pretty penny that voter turnout will be lower, not higher.
0.1 percent vs 38 percent
The other favourite is this idea that 38 percent of PAS supporters could swing to Pakatan Harapan. The Kool Aid practically oozes out of this one.
Swings in elections are generally measured in the single digit percentages, or less, even.
In the recent US elections, a different result in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would have resulted in Hillary Clinton as president. Trump won each of these states by less than 1 percent.
So, while serious political observers speculate realistically about potential swings in the range of less than one percent, our friends in Malaysia are getting high talking about 38 percent swings.
The insane quantum of this simulated swing aside, how realistic is the prospect of any major swing away from PAS at all?
Surely, we can expect PAS to have less support than in 2013. Non-Malay support will drop, and the Amanah exodus cannot be completely without impact.
That said, the best real-life test cases for this swing is again the by-elections. Amanah’s complete failure in rural polling stations suggests that if voters swing away from PAS, they will swing to Umno, not to Amanah, Harapan or what have you.
Tomorrow: A DAP-Amanah merger?
NATHANIEL TAN hopes everyone on the roads this week stay extra safe - biar lambat asal selamat!
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.
