This country is in crisis. There are those who would say, "pardon the redundancy" but in fact a political crisis has crept up on Manila, one long in the making, and could lead to 'People Power III' (or IV ) and the ousting of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo : PHD in economics, daughter of a distinguished president and wife of a terribly venal man, 'first gentleman' Mike Arroyo.

How did this happen? When a bagman for provincial (and illegal ) numbers games (called jueteng) named names, in particular presidential son Congressman 'Mikey' Arroyo, one was tempted to sigh, like Casablanca's Captain Reynaud in closing Rick's caf, 'there's gambling going on here,' while pocketing his take.

It's much worse. A very senior and respected academic leader with high contact throughout the business world said, "everywhere I go he [husband Mike Arroyo] has already been there, with his hands out. He just can't stop. He's everywhere."

My own Filipino deep throat, who has been seminally involved with high politics here for 35 years and is a profoundly serious analyst (but who in wishing to keep his head keeps his name out ) answered my questions this way.

It's too late

Thompson: On a political spectrum, let's call 1986 - People Power (I) that overthrew Marcosa '10'. People Power (II), that overthrew Erap Estrada in 2001, an '8'. Where are we today ?

Deep Throat: It's now at a six

Thompson: Why can't she bundle Mike off to Argentina as ambassador and get on with it?

Deep Throat: That would have been possible a month ago, when it was still a '5'. It's too late for that now.

My source has called every turn here correctly for a generation, partly because he was the source of much change. He insists it's still too early to call this one but she is in deep trouble, especially now that CDs purportedly of conversations between her and aides urging electoral fraud have surfaced. If technical analysis proved the accusation true, it will be as serious for her as the Clinton spot on the Lewinsky dress, only she won't be able to ride it out.

Filipinos are deeply suspicious of foreign manipulation of domestic crises, almost always seeing far greater American concern with developments here than Washington could care. But a group of distinguished academics weren't convinced otherwise. The thoughtful and highly regarded American
Ambassador, Francis Ricciardone, reportedly said that the US would support any 'constitutional' solution to the crisis.

To a battle-worn Filipino, after Colonel Lansdale's historic interventions in politics herein 1950s and much else since then, that statement in itself was an invitation to a 'constitutional' coup. But what is the alternative ? " We need a Musharraf," a famous professor said.

Ramos, the saviour

"There is only one man who can save us now," another replied and everyone at the meeting knew to whom he referred.

Knowing they were referring to ex-president Fidel V. Ramos, who had a queaky-clean administration between 1992 and 1998 and who jump-started rapid economic growth, I said "But he is 77." So what ? was the common sentiment. Adenauer was just getting going at that age, Balaguer ( in Dominican Republic ) still had 15 years to go.

The point is obvious. Ramos is Asean's elder statesman, a survivor and a man of parts. He may be 77 but he starts the day with 50 pushups and his mind is razor sharp. As one who worked for Ronald Reagan in his 70s and saw the signs of Alzheimers creeping in while the man was still president, I am well attuned to the signals. Ramos today is in better shape than Reagan was at the start of his presidency, age 70. Indeed he reminds you of a man in his prime, in his 50s.

Since there is no obvious knight in shinning armor within the existing military, it could be that a 'solution' will be worked out in which Ramos is called forward to lead his country anew, within the context of a ruling council, until a constitutional succession can be worked out, presumably in the form of the parliamentary government everybody seems to concede now is needed.

In any event the Philippines is nearing another melt-down and '6' may become '7'. At '8' it breaks. GMA, as the president is known, a colleague of mine said, "is a small minded person. Her speeches are platitudes. There is no vision. That's why she can retreat into 'family business' (i.e. national
theft)."

That would be the reason why she with an obvious 10 years ahead of her and a great opportunity to reform the Philippines when she assumed office in 2001, didn't take the high road. "She didn't even see it," my colleague said.

Perhaps she still has rabbits to pull from the hat. But her husband, son, and brother-in-law allegedly have been so busy pulling payolo from all around that her options are seriously narrowed. Literally no one believes her protestations of innocence, any more than Captain Renaud's of corruption.

Her 'anti-corruption' campaign gets a 30 score from the professional social weather starting polling and her own polls have plunged below survival level. Stay tuned.

W SCOTT THOMPSON, an adjunct professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Boston, is a former assistant secretary of state for the Ronald Reagan administration. He also served as Donald Rumsfeld's assistant at the Pentagon in 1975-76. He lives in Bali and Washington DC.