Opposition’s challenges in overthrowing the kleptocratic regime

“The mistake you make, don't you see, is in thinking one can live in a corrupt society without being corrupt oneself. After all, what do you achieve by refusing to make money? You're trying to behave as though one could stand right outside our economic system. But one can't. One's got to change the system, or one changes nothing. One can't put things right in a hole-and-corner way, if you take my meaning.”

- George Orwell, ‘Keep the Aspidistra Flying’

I read this comment piece about game changers in 2017 and it was just overly optimistic. There is really no evidence that the opposition can overthrow this kleptocratic regime or if the variables mentioned in the articles would fall into place, thereby facilitating a Harapan victory.

This is not meant as an attack but rather a rejoinder that we are sailing through very dangerous waters and if we do not get our act together and move beyond simply cheerleading a disorganised opposition, we could end up in a whole world of hurt.

A couple of points that I think needs clearing up and the article merely glosses over.

1) Umno has always suffered electoral setbacks when faced with a cohesive opposition. As it is, the opposition is in disarray. PAS is a spoiler made worse by the reality that PKR needs them to remain politically relevant.

2) Recent by elections have demonstrated that Bersatu or at least the personalities behind them and Amanah have not gained traction with the demographic that keeps Umno in power.

3) The issue of corruption plays well with the urban demographic but again for various reasons has not become an issue with rural demographic. As I attempted to articulate in my piece about the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections -

“So if Umno delivers everything it says it will deliver, the cycle of complicity will continue. Disenfranchised people will continue voting for a regime which puts rice in their bowls. I am not talking about the urban class but rather those people who have depended on real power, federal power exercised corruptly for their benefit. That is the culture some people forget that we are dealing with. We nurtured this culture.”

4) Felda settlers unfortunately are not easily moved by corruption scandals only because they have weathered such scandals over the long Umno watch. If the Najib regime can find a way to assuage their grievances, then they will remain firmly in the Umno camp. And since Umno has always found a way to placate this demographic and keep a tight lid on anyone attempting to proselytise to them, I do not think that banking on them would be beneficial to Harapan.

5) The younger generation of Malay voters are a promising demographic but they are currently embroiled in a culture war that consumes most of their energy and effort.Young Malay oppositional types not only have to contend with the Umno regime but they also have to contend with the Islamic forces in this country with no help whatsoever from mainstream Malay political parties or non-Malay political parties who do not view them as part of a new deal but merely a specific racial demographic needed to win the throne of Putrajaya.

6) Race and religion. While my views on these issues are spread across various articles, I think there are deeper issues here than just Umno spreading racial and religious discord. I think that Umno is the main purveyor or racial and religious disharmony but I do think that what the opposition keeps running into a deep-rooted cultural and historical issues from within Pakatan that they have not dealt with hence are not able to come up with a convincing strategy to win over the majority Malay demographic.

7) Finally, the native voters of Sabah and Sarawak. I would not put much faith in them. They really do have problems that most peninsular Malaysians have no idea of.