The progressive team thrown out in the PAS leadership elections early this month may be in for a difficult time in the next general election if they decide to form a new party.

Speaking to Malaysiakini , political analyst Wan Saiful Wan Jan said this was because the PAS conservatives may command more grassroots support than the new party.

"I think it will be a challenging competition for everyone, really. The conservatives in PAS will have the grassroots' support, while the new party may not necessarily have that support, just yet.

"It depends on how quickly the progressives can set up the party and how quickly they can build the momentum towards the next general election. But their weakness will be at the grassroots machinery level," Wan Saiful ( photo ) said.

He said this when asked what a new Islamist party's chances would be if it went up against both PAS and Umno in the 14th general election (GE14)

The new party is being mulled by the progressive leaders of PAS, in response to what they claim to be the “growing introversion” of PAS under the party's new leadership.

The progressives, banded together as the New Hope (Harapan Baru) or G18 movement, say a new party, if formed, would be more open and inclusive than PAS, with membership open to non-Muslims as well.

Chin Huat: PAS can even be wiped out...

However the New Hope leaders insist that this talk is all hypothetical, as of now.

Penang Institute fellow Wong Chin Huat agreed that a new party, if formed by PAS progressives, would struggle in GE14 but said they may be able to wrest the West Coast of the peninsula from PAS.

"What may likely happen in GE14 is that the new party can become strong in the West Coast, while PAS will hold on to Kelantan and Terangganu," Wong ( photo ) told Malaysiakini .

If the new party survives by GE15, he added, it could even wipe out PAS.

"If the new party survives and survives well up to GE15, one of them will fall out.

"If PAS grows stronger, then PAS may actually reconquer its lost ground. But let’s say if PAS becomes more insular, and the new party become more dynamic and vibrant, then it may take over the East Coast as well," Wong said.

"Most elections are not so dramatic that you see an entire party wiped out, not so far. But two elections could be enough to whittle away parties that are not strong," he added.