With Pakatan facing demise, many eyes are on the progressive faction in PAS to quit and form a new party after Hari Raya, and then team up with DAP and PKR to gear up for the next general election.

 

However if the new party turns out to be another Malay-Muslim party, or a splinter party of PAS, then it may have a short lifespan, cautioned Wan Saiful Wan Jan, head of think-tank Institute of Democracy and Economic Affairs (Ideas).

 

"PAS will be out of picture as not many support its conservatism. So, a new party is now necessary.

 

"But how long this new party can survive? It pretty much depends on how the progressives position it," Wan Saiful ( photo ) told Malaysiakini . 

 

If the new party is willing to embrace universal values and is not based on ethnicity and religion, then it may survive in the longer term.

 

"But the concern is we do not see this coming," he said.

 

The progressive faction looks like they will opt to position the new party as a 'Malay-Muslim party', as an immediate response to suit current needs, he said.

 

"If it does, it will only survive one or two general elections - they won't stay for long. There is a clash between the immediate demand for the party to act as Malay Muslim party, and a long term demand for the party to embrace multi-ethnicity and universal values," he asserted.

 

Following DAP officially pronouncing the death of the seven year old Pakatan and anticipating a broad-based new coalition , the progressive faction in PAS is said to be embarking on roadshows to garner support, beginning with   ‘Himpunan Jasamu Dikenangi’ (‘Your deeds will be remembered’ gathering) last Tuesday night.

 

The progressive pact, however is still tight-lipped about the new party. PAS’ ex-deputy president Mohamad Sabu said this will only be decided after a month or two.

 

The PAS' ulama, led by president Abdul Hadi Awang, countered with a mass rally ( photo ) at Terengganu also on Tuesday, to show the support for his faction.

 

Despite this, Wan Saiful maintained that PAS would be out of picture as not many will support its conservative stance.

 

'Worst option'

However disagreeing with Wan Saiful's view on the necessity to form a new party, political analyst Phoon Wing Keong said this will be the 'worst option' for the progressives to take.

 

In his view, the better choice was for them to make a comeback and take over the party leadership after the ulama faction performs badly in the next poll, or join DAP or PKR to strengthen the opposition.

 

This is simply because the electoral system is not favourable to small and new parties.

 

"Looking at history, you can see many parties have disappeared in the past 40 years. Only PKR has survived due to its de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim and the Reformasi campaign," Phoon said.

 

Instead, he urged the opposition parties to look at the possibility of forming a coalition after the polls.

 

In the past 30 years, opposition parties had formed coalitions to fight BN, despite not sharing common ideologies, he said, referring to Angkatan Perpaduan Ummah (APU), Barisan Alternative (BA), and the most recent one, Pakatan.

 

"Under this new model, a coalition government can be formed by parties from both sides of the divide and the government will act on the common ground the parties agree to," he said.

 

With this, a party didn’t have to be answerable to any contradictory decisions or policies of the other members, he said.

 

It’s yet to be seen if this kind of political realignment is possible in the PKR-led Selangor state government. 

 

Selangor Mentri Besar Mohamed Azmin Ali, who appeared cautious in accepting Pakatan’s demise, emphasised it was 'business as usual'. However he seemed to be in a dilemma in choosing his team to rule the state.

 

A source told  Malaysiakini  that only four or five state assemblypersons may leave PAS should a breakaway party form. The rest, including those in the state executive council, are in the pro-ulama faction.

 

If this happens, then the opposition pact will secure 33 out of 56 state seats, and can leave PAS out, which will have 10 seats. 

 

'PAS out in the cold?'

Both Wan Saiful and political analyst Wong Chin Huat noted a few PAS state assemblypersons may quit the party, to allow the new pact to rule the state comfortably, for PAS to be left in the cold.

 

Azmin will choose the new party formed by progressives, said Wong ( photo ), as the demographic in Selangor has no place for conservatism.

 

Azmin can say 'business as usual' in Selangor unless nobody pulls out from PAS, but this is quite unlikely to happen, said Wong, who is also at Penang Institute, a state government-linked think tank.

 

Despite the Selangor palace having meddled into the business of selecting a menteri besar for the state, Wong said in this issue, the need for the sultan to interfere doesn't arise.

 

"The role of a ruler under the constitutional monarchy is very limited. There is no need for the ruler to step in when the menteri besar still enjoys the confidence of the state assembly," he said.

 

The palace's attitude may pose an uncertainty to the political scenario, said Wong.

 

Wan Saiful, however discounted the possibility that the palace, which is said to be close to PAS, may not receive this well.

 

"In Selangor, it's more about palace politics. Dealing with the palace is a political art of its own. They need to sit down and talk in a healthy way if disagreement arises."

 

He however opined that the sultan is wise to know that a constitutional crisis ought to be avoided.

 

If the PKR-led state government is able to maintain its strong majority should PAS be kicked out from the ruling coalition, then the sultan may not interfere too much into this, gauged Wan Saiful.