Certainly, former prime minister and the second 'Public Enemy No 1' in Malaysia's political history - the first being communist leader Chin Peng - Anwar Ibrahim has reasons for joy and relief.

Love him or loath him, Anwar, is not only still relatively young but also a charismatic leader with a mass following, especially among Muslims who form the majority in multi-ethnic and multi-religious Malaysia.

At 57, the former protege-turned-nemesis of former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, seems to have undergone yet another political metamorphosis:

He has gone from a fallen political elite, and inspired his supporters as an icon of defiance whilst behind bars, to a free man surrounded by only the hardcore amongst his followers.

This never-say-die following, mostly from lower and middle-income groups, has stood by Anwar in the past six years, while he was dismissed summarily from the second highest office, arrested under the ISA, beaten in the lockup, condemned in the mainstream media as an 'American agent', 'Muslim fanatic' and 'traitor of the race' simultaneously, and then charged, convicted and jailed as a 'sodomist'.

In the Malaysian version of the 'Great Cultural Revolution', many of Anwar's elite friends and former party comrades turned, almost overnight, against him and joined in the chorus of political, as well as personal attacks, against the broken man.

So, the bond between Anwar and his supporters, among the people in the streets seems to be powerfully emotive. It has both religious as well as class-conscious elements.

To be sure, there are still people who do disagree, genuinely or otherwise, with Anwar's political ideas or his style of leadership, which has been seen to be opportunistic, 'rabble-rousing' and 'passion-inflaming'.

Rejoining politics

How would these emotions change the politics of Malaysia if and when Anwar, after the restoration of his health, decides to get back in the field? What would his supporters do? More important, what would Anwar do?

One thing seems to be certain even at this moment: Anwar will not give up politics and his supporters will not allow him to retire quietly.

There is, however, a problem. According to the law, Anwar is barred from holding office in any political party and to contest in elections for five years until April 14, 2008 as the result of his earlier conviction for 'corruption'.

Nevertheless, Anwar's image and standing among supporters of the opposition has reached a new height that he doesn't need a formal office or designation, or a seat in the legislature or the executive to be immensely influential.

Moreover, from his own pre-Umno records of political activism, as well as his costly non-conformist style which he had exhibited in the past six years, Anwar's politics seem to be more broadly and deeply conceptualised than just winning or losing elections personally.

Most likely, he would use this influence to, first and foremost, consolidate, restructure and revitalise the Muslim-majority, but multi-ethnic and multi-cultural Parti Keadilan Rakyat as his political platform.

Although the six-year-old party has survived with its core intact to the dismay of many ill-wishers and prophets of doom, its electoral performance and organisational coherence are in pressing need of repair.

It also has to redefine and reformulate its relationships with the Muslim-based PAS and Chinese-predominated DAP in light of the recent experiences of party leaders and members, especially the 1999 and 2004 general elections.

Opposition unity and cooperation cannot remain forever conceptual or rhetorical without reciprocal commitments from all sides.

Return to Umno?

Meanwhile, there is always the speculation that Anwar may return to Umno, in spite of his repeated denials and rebuttals.

According to one school of thought, Anwar's return to Umno would effect the process of reconciliation within the country's largest ruling party and help to moderate it to the greater interests of national stability.

However, according to another school, if Anwar were to return to Umno, it would mean the end of his political credibility and popularity. While supporters of the democratic opposition and his own non-Umno followers - who stood by him in the past few years - would certainly feel betrayed, vested interests within Umno would also feel threatened.

If that happens, Anwar would certainly be an isolated man, trusted by neither side of the political divide. One cannot have his cake and eat it too.

So, from the perspective of the second school of thought, for Anwar to stay in the democratic opposition would not only reflect his idealism, but also a healthy dose of realism, which he seemed to lack in 1981-1982 when he opted to join Umno.

The strategically incoherent and ethnically diverse opposition is in need of integration into a national framework of modern political discourse, as well as participation within the contexts of globalisation and the post-9/11 international situation.

So it follows that Anwar's nationally and internationally acknowledged experiences, as well as his skills as a centrist, would be critically helpful in directing and managing the forces of democratisation in a plural society.

JAMES WONG WING ON is chief analyst of Strategic Analysis Malaysia. He is a former DAP member of parliament for Kampar (1990-1995) and a former columnist for the Sin Chew Jit Poh Chinese daily (now Sin Chew Daily). He read political science and economics at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.