Jailing likely Anwar's end but will Pakatan survive?
Nigel AwPublished: Feb 10, 2015 6:11 AM | Updated: Feb 10, 2015 8:00 AM
[Read our earlier coverage of the Federal Court verdict here .]
It is the end of the road for Anwar Ibrahim as the Federal Court today upheld the opposition leader’s guilty verdict for sodomy and sentenced him to five years in jail.
[Read our earlier coverage of the Federal Court verdict here.]
It is the end of the road for Anwar Ibrahim as the Federal Court today upheld the opposition leader’s guilty verdict for sodomy and sentenced him to five years in jail.
Anwar, 67, will likely be exiled from the political arena for close to a decade as he will be banned from politics for another five years after serving his full sentence.
With the prospect of only returning to politics at age 77 (earliest at 75 on good behavious), it is unlikely the Permatang Pauh MP can pull off another unprecedented comeback as he did in 2008 after serving five years in jail and waiting out his political ban.
Prior to his sentencing, Anwar had put up a brave front, stressing that he will “fight whether outside or inside prison”.
However, Anwar’s key role has often not been about fighting, but to serve as the glue in the fractious Pakatan Rakyat as well as mediator among aspiring young leaders in PKR.
Without Anwar, the coalition will face its first serious test on whether it can exist in a post-Anwar era.
His wife, PKR president Wan Azizah Wan Ismail (right in photo), may be seen as the person to step in for Anwar, as she did when her husband was previously incarcerated.
However, unlike in the past where there was plenty of good will for Wan Azizah, the Pakatan partners have grown significantly and are more confident of their own strengths.
She will need to deal with a Pakatan where dissatisfaction among its partners have been simmering since the Selangor menteri besar crisis last year and several more subsequent conflicts.
Even before the coalition faces the Permatang Pauh by-election as a result of Anwar’s jailing, it will have to reconcile several disagreements such as hudud and local government.
The Selangor menteri besar crisis and Kajang Move had also highlighted the fault lines within PKR among its younger leaders as its then-director of strategy Rafizi Ramli (right) and deputy president Azmin Ali clashed.
While the younger leaders in PKR have proven themselves capable, the party’s continued strength will depend on whether they demonstrate wisdom and diplomacy.
This may be a challenge as they vie to become the next leader of the party.
It will be a difficult time ahead for Pakatan and PKR, but the judgment has also once again put Malaysia’s judiciary under the international spotlight for the wrong reasons.
Weighing on the country’s credentials
The fact that Malaysia is sitting on the United Nations Human Rights Council and is the chair for Asean this year means the judgment would weigh more on the country’s credentials.
The decision may alienate Malaysia from western countries who see Anwar’s charge to be politically motivated, a relationship which Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak's has tirelessly built in the past years.
Whether the Federal Court delivered the decision independently and fairly or not does not erase the perception of political interference.
However, for Najib who has been undersieged at home by his support base, it may be a worthwhile price to pay.
Anwar’s jailing would show that Najib is willing to get tough with his opponents, something that right-wing elements in his party has been clamouring for.
The decision may to some small extent placate Anwar’s nemesis and former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who has now turned on Najib over policy disagreements.
It is the end of the road for Anwar Ibrahim as the Federal Court today upheld the opposition leader’s guilty verdict for sodomy and sentenced him to five years in jail.
Anwar, 67, will likely be exiled from the political arena for close to a decade as he will be banned from politics for another five years after serving his full sentence.
With the prospect of only returning to politics at age 77 (earliest at 75 on good behavious), it is unlikely the Permatang Pauh MP can pull off another unprecedented comeback as he did in 2008 after serving five years in jail and waiting out his political ban.
Prior to his sentencing, Anwar had put up a brave front, stressing that he will “fight whether outside or inside prison”.
However, Anwar’s key role has often not been about fighting, but to serve as the glue in the fractious Pakatan Rakyat as well as mediator among aspiring young leaders in PKR.
Without Anwar, the coalition will face its first serious test on whether it can exist in a post-Anwar era.
His wife, PKR president Wan Azizah Wan Ismail (right in photo), may be seen as the person to step in for Anwar, as she did when her husband was previously incarcerated.However, unlike in the past where there was plenty of good will for Wan Azizah, the Pakatan partners have grown significantly and are more confident of their own strengths.
She will need to deal with a Pakatan where dissatisfaction among its partners have been simmering since the Selangor menteri besar crisis last year and several more subsequent conflicts.
Even before the coalition faces the Permatang Pauh by-election as a result of Anwar’s jailing, it will have to reconcile several disagreements such as hudud and local government.
The Selangor menteri besar crisis and Kajang Move had also highlighted the fault lines within PKR among its younger leaders as its then-director of strategy Rafizi Ramli (right) and deputy president Azmin Ali clashed.While the younger leaders in PKR have proven themselves capable, the party’s continued strength will depend on whether they demonstrate wisdom and diplomacy.
This may be a challenge as they vie to become the next leader of the party.
It will be a difficult time ahead for Pakatan and PKR, but the judgment has also once again put Malaysia’s judiciary under the international spotlight for the wrong reasons.
Weighing on the country’s credentials
The fact that Malaysia is sitting on the United Nations Human Rights Council and is the chair for Asean this year means the judgment would weigh more on the country’s credentials.
The decision may alienate Malaysia from western countries who see Anwar’s charge to be politically motivated, a relationship which Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak's has tirelessly built in the past years.
Whether the Federal Court delivered the decision independently and fairly or not does not erase the perception of political interference.
However, for Najib who has been undersieged at home by his support base, it may be a worthwhile price to pay.
Anwar’s jailing would show that Najib is willing to get tough with his opponents, something that right-wing elements in his party has been clamouring for.
The decision may to some small extent placate Anwar’s nemesis and former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who has now turned on Najib over policy disagreements.
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