Umno senior citizen, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah [Ku Li] suddenly announced his desire to return to the top echelon of leaders. He has been "sleeping" for the past four years, and has awoken to offer himself to contest a "suitable" post in the party elections this September.

The awakening of Ku Li has opened the eyes of other Umno leaders. There were some who were shocked by the idea of Ku Li wanting to contest the number one or number two post in the party. Some thought the Kelantan prince was trying to swim against the current in defying the supreme council decision that the posts of president and deputy president are not to be contested.

There were even those who criticised the former finance minister, comparing his offer to serve the party as nothing more than a gimmick to remind Umno members that he is still alive and kicking.

Some who were more severe considered Ku Li as no longer relevant, especially when Umno and Umno Kelantan have been again become accepted by Malaysians.

Because of that, Ku Li has been asked to keep quiet, with no posts considered as being suitable for him. The only exception is Shahrir Samad, who still feels that Ku Li is still useful to Umno at the vice-president level.

Accordingly, the chief sponsor of the Umno Johor Baru division proposed that Ku Li offers himself clearly as a candidate for the number three post in the party. He is confident that the former Semangat 46 president will not have any problems securing the necessary quota of nominations.

Alternative candidate

In reality, that was what Ku Li wanted. He wanted someone to "kick off" his political game this time. At the very least, Sharir's statement has opened the eyes of Umno members to the fact that there is an alternative candidate for the post of vice-president.

Umno members had been concentrating on Muhyiddin Yassin, Muhammad Muhd Taib, Syed Hamid Albar, Mohd Isa Samad, Rais Yatim, Mustapa Mohamad and Zaid Ibrahim. Now, Umno members have a wider, possibly better, choice.

Ku Li is well aware that the posts of number one and number two in Umno are not for him at this time. The partnership of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Najib Razak is too strong. That partnership cannot be broken except by the two leaders themselves. So the true meaning of the term "suitable post" used by Ku Li is vice-presidency. He is eyeing the seat vacated by Najib.

The only question which remains now is whether Ku Li still has the energy, influence and ability to garner the 19 nominations needed to qualify for participation in the "Formula One Umno" race.

Are there divisions which are brave and willing to nominate a leader long sidelined from the mainstream of the party and government? Even in his own state, his influence is said to be much eroded, so what is it like in other places?

During Umno's troubles in 2000, Ku Li failed to secure the quota of nominations needed for the vice-presidency. So in the current stability of Umno, how will it be? In the 2000 elections, Ku Li only garnered 17 nominations, one less than the quota needed.

Which division will "kick off" for Ku Li? Gua Musang, Pasir Mas, Tanah Merah, Kemaman, Jelebu, Putrajaya, Permatang Pauh or Johor Baru?

Ku Li cannot hope that Umno divisions in Kelantan will support and campaign for him any more. The Umno leadership in that state is now controlled by new people loyal to Mustapa Mohamad.

Even Ku Li's strongman Ibrahim Ali has vanished from Umno. So who can Ku Li rely on? Hashim Safin? Ahmad Shabery Chik?

Slim chances

It is not strange for Ku Li to return to the Umno leadership stage in the party elections this September because in politics, anything can happen. Friend can become foe, and vice versa. However, in reality, not only are Ku Li's chances of winning non-existent, even his chances of qualifying to contest are most slim.

Why so? Because in Umno, people like Shahrir are few. Almost 99 percent of Umno representatives, be it at division level or at the general assembly, is made up of those who joined Umno for "survival". They joined the party not because of idealism; they are not fighters but contractors, corporate leaders, professionals and people make a living through Umno.

This group of people value full stomachs and "survival" more. In such a situation, they tend to pick candidates who can benefit them. They are more willing to be Yes Men. Candidates who have positions and posts are preferred. Candidates not in the government are considered not relevant.

Umno members only pick "independent" candidates like "Mike Tyson" (Muhd Taib), as they did in 2000, when they have no other choice. They comply with signals sent from Umno Kubang Pasu division. At that time, Kubang Pasu which was controlled by Dr Mahathir Mohamad, nominated Muhyiddin, Najib and Mike Tyson for vice-presidency.

This year, however, it is felt that Umno Kepala Batas and Pekan divisions are expected to be excluded from making nominations for the posts involved so as to be fair to all prospective candidates. The Umno supreme council will meet shortly to decide on this matter.

So, when there are no signals from divisions controlled by Pak Lah and Najib, many political observers think that Umno members will be more independent, brave and open in making nominations. Will this mean that the election of the vice-presidents will change?

Will the delegates change their selection "trend"? Switch from the "status quo" and turn to "independent" candidates like Mike Tyson, Ku Li and Zaid Ibrahim [should the three succeed in securing sufficient nominations]. Or will they prefer candidates with government posts?

Troubled Tyson

This will continue to be a puzzle. Early signs will be visible at the end of this week when divisional meetings start. Still, initial forecasts of Umno's fortune-tellers predict struggles for just two of the vice-presidencies. The seat vacated by Najib and that which is still occupied by Mike Tyson.

The position of Muhyiddin is seen as impenetrable. He is almost sure to be re-elected because he is considered as the acting president's strongman and has proven his authority.

Mike Tyson's position is somewhat shaky because he is ever more sidelined from the party's mainstream. His name was not on list of Members of Parliament in the last general elections, and he has been removed from his post as the party's secretary-general, something which is said to have affected his chances this time.

Even the "rivalry" between him and Selangor Menteri Besar Dr Mohd Khir Toyo in Umno Selangor is also said to have affected his position. If it is true that Mike Tyson will be removed, who then will fill that vacancy? Going by experience and credibility, Shahrir, Ku Li and Rais are surely the most qualified.

Still, at this time, it is still too early to make predictions. After this weekend, the picture will be clearer. Only when the divisional meetings start this Thursday can we estimate who the prospective participants of the "Formula One Umno" circuit will be.

Is Ku Li able to stage an upset? This writer thinks that it is most difficult for him because Umno members now are not a group fond of nostalgia as before. History and memories cannot be used as bait to fish for votes any more.

This is the age of "survival". Fairy tales only exist in Euro 2004, not in Umno.

Be that as it may, "good luck", Ku Li.

The above is a translation of an article written in Bahasa Malaysia and published in malaysiakini on Tuesday.